Saudi Arabia distancing itself from the United States

Saudi Arabia distancing itself from the United States

Did the Saudis also consider looking east?

According to IranGate’s report, when Saudi Arabia and Iran accepted China as a mediator to revive their diplomatic relations, world leaders were surprised. The surprising thing was that this agreement was announced without the presence of the United States and with China’s mediation in Beijing.

According to IranGate and the Chinese Daily website published in Beijing, in an article by Jack Migli, the director of a strategic studies think tank based in Washington, D.C., the reasons for the decline of US influence in the West Asia region and Tehran and Riyadh’s interest in China’s mediation in reviving their relations instead of the US are examined.

The article further states that China’s successful diplomacy may indicate a fundamental change in the level of US dominance and influence in the Middle East. The agreement between the two countries in Beijing to revive their relations has created new conditions under which the two countries can return to more stable and constructive relations. Why did the two Middle Eastern powers turn to Beijing for help in reviving their diplomatic, economic, and security relations?

The answer to this question can be found by considering a combination of the harsh economic realities and the policy priorities of the United States and China. Practical economic considerations have brought Saudi Arabia and Iran closer to China than to the United States. Iranians have been suffering from severe US sanctions and have had no economic relationship with the US since the hostage crisis in 1979. On the other hand, China is Iran’s largest trading partner, with an annual bilateral trade value of nearly $16 billion.

This key relationship is based on Iran’s oil, which is not as accessible to most countries due to US sanctions. China and Iran signed a strategic cooperation agreement in 2021, which covers a wide range of collaborations in industrial development and joint investment initiatives, increasing the value of bilateral economic relations.

China has also emerged as the most important economic partner of Saudi Arabia. China’s trade with Saudi Arabia surpassed $87 billion in 2021, which is higher than the total trade between Saudi Arabia and the United States and the European Union, which amounts to over $78 billion.

In December of last year, Xi Jinping, the President of China, and Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the King of Saudi Arabia, signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement that includes a wide range of investment initiatives, which expand economic relations and develop infrastructure and other dimensions.

Oil and other mutual economic interests have made China the most important trading partner for both Iran and Saudi Arabia, while US economic participation in the region has steadily declined over the past years.

Both China and the United States have made deliberate policy choices that have changed the dynamics of the Middle East and reduced US influence. The first choice was between economic sanctions or economic development to influence the behavior of trading partners. The United States heavily relies on economic sanctions to punish governments and individuals that are incompatible with US interests.

Today, the United States government manages approximately 38 active sanction programs that restrict or regulate trade. Some of them are geographically extensive and oriented, such as those against Iran. Other sanctions are targeted and specific, focusing on individuals and specific entities.

While China has imposed limited sanctions in a few cases, its overall policy framework is development-oriented and based on investment and mutual interests. The Saudi Arabia-China Joint Committee explores opportunities for joint investment in projects ranging from oil to non-oil energy, such as hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, and climate change. Chinese companies, such as Huawei, Changan, and Hongqi, are well-known in Saudi Arabia and Chinese products are widely used, further strengthening economic relations.

China has also adopted a similar approach in Iran and has signed a long-term strategic cooperation agreement worth over $400 billion, including projects in oil development, mining, transportation, and agriculture.

The positive impact of development assistance and investment has increased China’s soft power in the Middle East, while US sanctions have limited America’s access and ability to influence political and diplomatic developments.

The second policy choice of the United States, which is the use of arms sales and security assistance, has increased China’s influence at a higher cost to the United States. The United States heavily relies on arms sales to gain political influence, but it seems that this approach is losing its effectiveness in the Middle East.

Between 2013 and 2022, the transfer of US weapons to 124 countries amounted to over $104 billion. Saudi Arabia has been the largest market for US arms sales. The total value of US arms sales to Saudi Arabia has exceeded the value of all Chinese military aid worldwide. In fact, Saudi Arabia has received more weapons from the United States than the other three major customers, Australia, Japan, and the United Arab Emirates.

Despite the extensive volume of arms sales to Saudi Arabia, US influence has clearly diminished because the Riyadh government has turned to China for an agreement with Iran. China’s use of arms sales as a leverage is much less than that of the United States. In total, China’s arms sales of around $16 billion to 70 countries over 10 years account for about 15% of US arms sales.

In the past decade, Saudi Arabia has received only around $350 million worth of weapons from China, which is approximately only 2% of the value of US arms sales to the country. Similarly, Iran has received only around $30 million worth of Chinese weapons in the past decade. However, despite the small scale or perhaps because of it, both Saudi Arabia and Iran have decided to cooperate with China to resolve their differences.

The economic realities of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China have pushed them towards closer and more comprehensive relations. The different political choices of China and the United States, including the use of development aid, sanctions, and the transfer of weapons, have increased China’s influence and credibility at the expense of the United States in the Middle East.

It seems that the global competition among major powers is increasingly based on economic development, investment, and practical and positive actions to strengthen cooperation. China’s significant achievement in engaging Iran and Saudi Arabia may pave the way for a new era of mutually beneficial relations and towards future global economic cooperation.