Engineer Musavi’s plan to save Iran
In a recent statement titled ‘For the Salvation of Iran’, Mir Hossein Musavi explicitly mentioned the overthrow of the Islamic Republic system and the establishment of a new political system through the formation of a Constituent Assembly with representatives from all ethnicities and political and ideological orientations.
Engineer Musavi’s proposed solution includes three steps: conducting a referendum on whether to approve or reject the existing constitution, forming a Constituent Assembly through a free and fair election after obtaining a majority ‘yes’ vote in the referendum, and implementing a second and final referendum to approve or reject the approved constitution by the Constituent Assembly.
These positions are a turning point in the evolutionary course of political developments of the former Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic, who has become the first senior official of the system to advocate for its fundamental change. Therefore, Engineer Musavi, in line with the political developments in society and the created consensus by the system towards reform, has strengthened his revolutionary contribution.
The area of influence of Mir Hossein Mousavi primarily includes the gray areas of the social system that have been experiencing uncertainty. These areas consist of the military, law enforcement, and intelligence forces, which can both contribute to the internal collapse of the system and assist in reducing costs or facilitating a smooth transition to a new political system during the peak of the revolutionary movement.
The basis of Engineer Mousavi’s transformative positions was established after the violent suppression of the November 1998 protests, during which he warned the government that without rectification, it would face a fate similar to that of the Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi regime after the September 8th revolution.
There is also an explicit declaration regarding the change of the Islamic Republic and the formation of a founding council to amend the constitution. This provides an opportunity to shape and strengthen the political forces within the country in order to respond to the existing demands at the level of field struggles and the demands of various sectors of civil society.
The change in tone of Mir Hossein Mousavi
In this letter, Engineer Musavi has remained silent about his current heart and ideological concerns. However, he has consistently emphasized adherence to the collective opinions of the movement since 2009 and has not sought hegemony for his own belief system. Nevertheless, in his previous positions, he made references to Ayatollah Khomeini and his religious views, which he has not done this time.
One of the important themes of Engineer Musavi’s letter is his special emphasis on the position of women and their political participation in the present and future. He considers women as the most important part of the movement for a free life. This position is noteworthy, considering the heavy and insulting attacks by the Islamic Republic newspaper on the women who protested against compulsory hijab in February 1979, and it reflects a positive change.
Adopting such a position is not easy for Engineer Musavi, and it will also have its costs. However, he sees the revolutionary solution as necessary for saving Iran in the face of multiple challenges. Part of his audience for this letter consists of reformists and those who still defend conservative approaches within the existing power structure. Musavi has successfully passed through by understanding and clearly expressing structural reforms.
He also warns that the process of struggles must be in a way that avoids repeating the mistakes of the past forty-four years. Based on his experience, he is concerned that the path of change does not veer towards the wrong direction, which could lead to future generations blaming. Therefore, according to Engineer Musavi, implementing fundamental changes requires attention to both negative aspects and learning from past experiences.
Of course, like any political activist, Engineer Musavi also has supporters and opponents. The reality is that his social position is not the same as in 1988, but at the same time, he also has the potential to influence and regain popularity. If he can gather a group of political and civil activists inside the country around himself, or form a coalition around him, then his role-playing may change the equations.
The difference between Mir Hossein and other opponents
Mir Hossein’s advantage is his presence inside the country and his 13-year house arrest, which gives him the legitimacy to play a coordinating role. His challenges and problems stem from his record in governance in the 1990s, which his opponents criticize him for. Although there may be exaggeration in this regard, he does bear political and ethical responsibility for the major problems of the 1990s.
However, in the seventies and eighties, Mousavi took a different path and made up for some of his mistakes. If he can succeed in transitioning from an Islamic Republic to a democracy by uniting forces within the country and weakening the oppressive regime, he can move beyond the past.
Successful experiences in transitioning to democracy suggest that in some cases, officials of the established government have played a key role in the transition process. A fair assessment of Engineer Mousavi’s track record should take into account all periods of his political career and his activities before and after the February 1979 revolution.
Speculating about Mir Hossein Mousavi’s future is difficult and has many unknown variables. Some of these variables are his own future actions, while others are the reactions of society. In the first step, society’s positive response exceeded expectations. Ultimately, we will have to see how opposition forces and civil society will respond.
However, in his final analysis, Mousavi is not seeking individual leadership, nor do the current conditions in Iranian society allow for such an opportunity. But in this period, he has utilized his own capabilities and the support of his like-minded forces to advance the revolutionary project. This event, which did not happen overnight, distinguishes Mousavi from the moderate reformists like Seyyed Mohammad Khatami and even the leading reformists like Mostafa Tajzadeh.
Mousavi has shown that from his perspective, reform or revolution are not fixed ideological concepts, but rather can be effective under certain circumstances. Mousavi, without bias and in a rational path, and with a commitment to the best interests of the country and the nation, has come to the conclusion over a 13-year period that there is no way other than creating a new political system and sidelining the fundamental concepts and institutions of power in the Islamic Republic.
He knows that this path is also accompanied by many difficulties, and explicitly states in the letter that there are ambiguities and uncertainties surrounding the implementation of his proposed plan. However, with hope in the nation and its capabilities, when it becomes self-confident, it overcomes its doubts. According to him, cooperation for the salvation of Iran is an effective solution to address the ambiguities.
In the new political scene of Iran, the actions of political activists such as Mir Hossein Mousavi can potentially alter the balance of political powers. However, whether these changes will be lasting or temporary depends on other variables that cannot be accurately speculated upon at this time.
