A great war is on the way
A great war is on the way as communication devices in Lebanon have exploded, which, given the scale and geographical scope, indicates another major escalation by Israel.
As if this wasn’t enough, a day after the explosion of the walkie-talkies, Israel carried out its deadliest airstrike against Beirut since the current round of conflicts began last October.
The pager attacks have sparked a wave of immediate analyses focusing on how these attacks align with Israel’s strategy, what the Israelis have been seeking, and especially the question of why these attacks were carried out now.
One of the main drivers has been Benjamin Netanyahu’s personal motivations, as he sees the continuation and even escalation of the war as his only ticket to maintaining the far-right coalition, thus staying in power and also delaying the day when his corruption charges are to be reviewed.
Another driver is the emotional aspect, which includes the widespread Israeli hatred of Arabs that intensified after Hamas’s attack on Israel.
The nature of the operation involving communication devices filled with explosives is indeed another driver. An operation of this magnitude and complexity, involving infiltration into supply lines and possibly creating fake companies, must have been planned and initiated long ago.
Therefore, trying to answer the question of why this attack was carried out now with speculation about what was in the minds of the operation’s creators years ago is meaningless.
This is a type of operation that, while requiring significant effort and cost, can quickly become futile if compromised.
If one of those thousands of pagers exploded prematurely or if Hezbollah leaders discovered this operation, all devices would be quickly discarded. Perhaps the Israelis concluded that Hezbollah was close to uncovering this operation.
None of the recent actions Israel has taken with Hezbollah, including the pager and walkie-talkie operations, advance even Israel’s immediate security objectives, let alone long-term goals.
Currently, Israel’s main goal regarding the Lebanese border and confrontation with Hezbollah is to enable Israeli residents, who have been evacuated from northern Israel, to return to their homes.
Escalating violence and tensions along the border do not make this goal more achievable.
The pager and walkie-talkie attacks might be an attempt to deliver a significant blow to Hezbollah without resorting to full-scale war, including a ground invasion of Lebanon. On the other hand, it might be preparation for such an invasion by weakening Hezbollah’s ability to defend itself.
In any case, Hezbollah feels under significant pressure to respond. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has publicly promised to retaliate at times and places of Hezbollah’s choosing.
Hezbollah has good reasons to continue trying to avoid an all-out war, but Israel’s recent actions are so offensive that they will not go unanswered.
In Washington, a key question is how much patience the United States has with Israel’s actions.
Additionally, the broader political and diplomatic costs that the United States incurs from its close association with Israel have increased.
The appropriate response from the United States is not only to recognize and oppose terrorism, regardless of who commits it, but also to protect its interests by distancing itself from a country that is increasingly becoming a rogue state.
