A more serious rival than Trump
When Jimmy Carter became president in 1976 and based his foreign policy on human rights, the more serious rival than Trump never thought he would receive the main blow from revolutionary rulers, whose revolutionary intellectuals used this doctrine to convey the message of their revolution.
One year before the 1980 presidential elections, polls showed Jimmy Carter much better than Joe Biden until Trump’s criminality was announced.
Jimmy Carter, who was optimistic, suddenly faced a serious crisis in foreign policy, a crisis that some experts see as the decisive arrow for his victory again.
The attack on the US embassy on November 4, 1979, completely turned the tables against Jimmy Carter. The hostage-taking of 66 American diplomats for 444 days put Carter in a very difficult crisis.
Beside the disagreement between the National Security Advisor Brzezinski and the Secretary of State Cyrus Vance over war or special operations, the short-lived Desert One operation was approved. The operation, which reduced Carter’s approval rating compared to the past, was affected by double-digit inflation reaching about 12% and the increase in gasoline prices. Carter’s card didn’t have a significant impact internally either, as the CNN network, which had entered the media scene as the only 24-hour news network four months before the elections, constantly emphasized Carter’s weakness in hostage rescue, changing the trends.
The unfortunate incident of Carter’s rival candidate being a handsome, attractive, and eloquent person who was able to even sway traditional Democratic votes in California towards the Republicans. The people of California no longer left room for Jimmy Carter to win.
Now, after 48 years of being a candidate, a Democratic Party representative is in no way willing to find Carter’s fate. Joe Biden, who can somewhat be considered a structural candidate in 2020, has now, at the age of 81, taken a fresh candidacy breath.
Although Joe Biden comes from the moderate wing of the Democratic Party, this time he has serious disagreements with the left wing of the party led by Bernie Sanders regarding the issue and management of the Gaza war, unlike four years ago.
Biden has so far pursued a policy of trying to please everyone to win, but there are still serious obstacles to his reelection.
Joe Biden has fulfilled almost all of Israel’s demands in the Gaza war so far, but on the other hand, he constantly talks about efforts to end the Gaza war and prevent Netanyahu’s government from entering Rafah. Israel is not dissatisfied with Biden, but the left wing of the Democratic Party, which is close to Bernie Sanders, has many criticisms of him.
The reality is that Biden owes his 2020 victory to the alliance of the two main currents of the Democratic Party and the high participation of the people, especially the youth.
But now, in American universities, some of those young people aged twenty to thirty are shouting out of dissatisfaction with Biden’s policies regarding the Gaza war. The non-participation of these young people and the decrease in the number of young participants in the elections are serious Achilles’ heels for Biden’s victory.
Another Achilles’ heel for Biden has been the weakness in convincing the left wing of the Democratic Party.
Biden must definitely mobilize the left wing of the Democratic Party led by Sanders to win the election and attract votes to himself. Another point is that Biden, despite being a politician, may not be a very appealing character, and this characteristic could sway independent American voters towards not voting or towards voting for Trump.
But with all these strengths and weaknesses, Trump being recognized as a criminal seems to be a gift from the heavens for Biden.
According to the latest Reuters poll, 10% of Republican voters and about 25% of independent voters have stated that due to Trump being recognized as a criminal in the New York court, they will not vote for him. This is a historic opportunity for Biden to navigate through this electoral challenge with a strong advertising team.
Although Trump has a relatively attractive personality for his supporters, he fundamentally lacks even half of the support and prominent political character that Ronald Reagan had within the Republican Party and among Republicans. Therefore, this is a golden opportunity that Biden can seize for victory.
Ultimately, it must be said that if Joe Biden manages to defeat Trump despite serious challenges, it may solidify his place in American political history and pave the way for his re-election in this age and within the Democratic Party.
Because after Trump’s conviction in the New York court, Trump is no longer Biden’s main rival, but rather Biden’s performance and efforts to unify the two main factions of the party will ultimately determine the outcome.
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