Arab Fear of Trump’s Unpredictable Actions
Arab Fear of Trump’s Unpredictable Actions
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have announced their commitment to reducing tensions with Iran while preparing for Donald Trump’s return, hoping he can end a year of war in the Middle East. However, these two countries are simultaneously worried that Trump’s unpredictability could further ignite tensions.
According to Iran Gate, the Financial Times website noted the Gulf Arab countries’ concern over getting involved in an unwanted conflict between Iran and the US. Leaders like Mohammad bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, were among Trump’s most enthusiastic Arab supporters during his first presidency and welcomed his hostile approach towards Iran.
But in the years since, the two Gulf energy powerhouses, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have changed course and sought engagement with Tehran amid doubts about the US commitment to their security.
This became more urgent following Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which sparked a wave of regional hostilities and heightened tensions between the US and Iran, with both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi seeking to stay on the sidelines of the conflicts.
Gulf leaders, who traditionally prefer Republicans, have welcomed Trump’s re-election and hope that this businessman and dealmaker will fulfill his campaign promise to bring peace to the region.
However, diplomats and people close to regional governments say they are also concerned that Trump might give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu more leeway to escalate tensions with Israel’s enemies and increase tensions with Iran, which could lead to an all-out conflict that might spill over to the Gulf Arab countries.
A senior Arab diplomat said, ‘If Trump puts you in a position where you have to decide which side to take because he moves against Iran, that’s a big problem. Trump is not the man who takes no for an answer.’
In a sign of Riyadh’s desire to maintain its cold peace with Iran, Mohammad bin Salman hosted senior Iranian officials at an Islamic conference in Jeddah on Monday, where he accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. He also condemned Israeli attacks on Iran and called on the international community to stop Israel’s hostile actions on Iranian soil.
Separately, Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, said at a conference in Abu Dhabi on Monday that Trump’s future administration should pursue a comprehensive approach instead of reactive and piecemeal policies. These statements underscore the shift in Saudi and UAE policy compared to Trump’s first term, as they actively engaged with him after his 2017 rise to power following years of Arab frustration with US policy fluctuations and a sense of detachment from the region.
Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi welcomed the Trump administration’s hawkish stance on Iran, his decision to unilaterally withdraw from the JCPOA, and the imposition of crippling sanctions on Iran. However, as Trump’s maximum pressure campaign increased regional tensions, they became aware of their vulnerability to Iran’s hostility.
After the 2019 missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure, which temporarily wiped out half of the country’s crude oil production, the Gulf Arab rulers’ faith in the US’s willingness to defend them was shaken. Following this event, while Washington blamed Iran, Trump preferred not to respond beyond imposing additional sanctions.
Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of the Washington-based Gulf State Analytics, said that by the end of Trump’s first term, regional leaders realized that they had not succeeded in making the Gulf Arab monarchies safer during the Trump era. With trust in the US security umbrella weakened, Saudi Arabia and the UAE decided that de-escalating with Iran was the best option to protect their countries and allow them to focus on economic diversification.
This led to a China-brokered agreement in March 2023 that re-established diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran after a seven-year rift. Gulf Arab leaders are now concerned that a widespread, all-encompassing war in the Middle East could undermine their domestic development plans. A person familiar with the Saudi government’s thinking said the China-backed agreement is beneficial for the region, and Saudi Arabia will remain committed to it as long as Iran is committed.
He added that the Saudi kingdom believes the focus should be on economic development and the success of its vision, which ultimately provides the region with a perspective beyond conflict — a perspective that should benefit everyone. In this context, Saudi Chief of General Staff Fayyad Al-Ruwaili was in Tehran on Sunday to meet with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Bagheri, to discuss defense cooperation as part of the Beijing agreement.
However, while Trump promises to bring peace to the Middle East, he has expressed support for Israeli military attacks and seems poised to appoint anti-Iran war hawks in his administration. Elise Stefanik, Trump’s nominee for US ambassador to the UN, wrote on social media platform X that the US is ready to return to President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran.
Gulf Arab leaders are worried that the newly elected US president, who implemented a series of pro-Israel policies during his first term, might embolden Netanyahu instead of reining him in. The Arab diplomat said, ‘We will stand on the sidelines. We are protected,’ but added that any defense system can be overcome. ‘It’s no joke.’ Nevertheless, Mohammad bin Salman and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s head of state, eagerly anticipate closer personal ties with Trump compared to current US President Joe Biden.
The relationship between these Arab statesmen and Trump and his entourage continued after he left the White House, with Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, and Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s former Treasury Secretary, receiving billions of dollars from Gulf state wealth funds for their investment firms.
After taking office, Biden initially criticized Saudi Arabia and Mohammad bin Salman and pledged to reassess Washington’s relationship with the kingdom following the 2018 murder of Jamal Khashoggi. However, contrary to this promise, relations between the two countries improved as Biden sought a trilateral agreement leading to the US agreeing to a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia in exchange for the kingdom normalizing relations with Israel.
These plans were disrupted by the Gaza war. Trump, who considered the normalization of relations between some Arab countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, with Israel under the Abraham Accords as one of his greatest foreign policy achievements, might be seeking his grand deal.
But this would require ending Israel’s wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and obtaining concessions to establish a Palestinian state. Another Arab diplomat said, ‘Our feeling is that President Trump wants a deal to end the war in Gaza. Will it be what everyone wants? Perhaps not, but it will end this war.’
