Architects’ Sanctions Recommendations to Trump

Architect of Sanctions Advises Trump

Richard Nephew, a U.S. foreign policy expert known as the architect of sanctions against the Islamic Republic, advises Donald Trump to give diplomacy with Iran one last chance while preparing to use military force if needed. In an article published in Foreign Affairs on December 13, Nephew writes that due to the risks of U.S. military action, at the beginning of Trump’s term, a final and sincere effort for negotiation should be made to halt Tehran’s nuclear program. At the same time, Nephew cautions that Washington should not initiate military action now and must ensure that Iran takes this threat seriously. Nephew, who was previously a member of the U.S. negotiating team during the Iran nuclear talks with global powers, emphasizes that attacks to destroy Iran’s Natanz facility and other nuclear sites will not solve the problem, as seen with the death of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020 and the attacks on Iran’s centrifuge production facility in 2021.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was the Prime Minister of Israel, mentioned his name as the father of Iran’s nuclear bombs two and a half years before his assassination. He was killed on the seventh of Azar in 1399 in an attack on his car on the Aabsard road on the outskirts of Tehran. Richard Nephew, who was the Iran desk director on the National Security Council during the presidency of Barack Obama, wrote in his articles that the United States may be forced to continuously attack Iran’s nuclear ambitions to suppress them or to launch a larger attack that would eliminate elements of Iran’s security forces or regime.

He then argues that if these attacks were carried out, it would be difficult to imagine that the Islamic Republic would quickly turn to diplomacy unless there is a change in the Iranian government. This senior researcher at Columbia University then added that negotiations in the years 2021 and 2022 to return the United States and Iran to full compliance with the JCPOA nuclear agreement failed because Iran did not trust the United States and was concerned that if Republicans came to power in America, the new president would not adhere to this agreement.

However, he added that if Trump himself agrees to a new deal, Iran may believe that this agreement will be sustainable. Donald Trump has emphasized returning to the policy of maximum pressure against the Islamic Republic of Iran several times during his recent election campaign, and the 2015 agreement with Iran has been considered insufficient by global powers due to its lack of coverage of missile programs and destabilizing activities in the Middle East.

Richard Nephew, who served as a senior sanctions expert in negotiations with Iran between 2013 and 2014, says that if the United States uses the maximum pressure approach to soften Iran in future negotiations, Iran may respond by secretly building nuclear weapons, withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, or in any other way. He writes that if efforts to reach an agreement fail, the United States must be prepared to use military force.

According to Mr. Nephew’s belief, Iran should focus on simultaneously rebuilding its nuclear program, rebuilding Hezbollah, renewing its missile capabilities, and managing the country’s economic problems while still under sanctions. Richard Nephew states that the Iranian government must make real decisions about its strategic path. The country has lost all of its major deterrent systems and methods and can no longer rely on nuclear weapons as cheap and quick options to regain this deterrence.

He also writes that in the event of US attacks on Iran, the Islamic Republic may receive limited support from the Iranian people, and there is a possibility that depending on the intensity of the targeting and collateral damage of these attacks, the Iranian people may see it as an opportunity for regime change. Mr. Nephew concludes his article for Foreign Affairs by stating that the blows Iran has received from Israel, along with its ailing economy, may already be enough to push the country towards having sufficient nuclear capabilities.

Following the killing of Mohammadreza Zahedi, one of the senior commanders of the Quds Force in Syria, on Farvardin 25, the Islamic Republic of Iran launched a missile and drone attack on Israel. Then, on the tenth of Mehr, in response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the deaths of Hassan Nasrallah and Abbas Nilforoushan, Zahedi’s deputy in Lebanon, Iran targeted Israel with 181 ballistic missiles.

In response to these attacks, Israel carried out attacks on Iran on the fifth of Aban. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims that as a result, in addition to destroying several military centers, Israel has also neutralized the Islamic Republic’s air defense capabilities. Streichardt Nefew has recommended in his article that US policymakers should consider that Iran’s nuclear weapon development is a certainty and must be managed. He warns that there is a limited opportunity to prevent reaching this point, and Washington must consider taking strong actions.