Are Israel and Hezbollah on the brink of a full-scale war?

Since October, Western officials have been tirelessly trying to prevent the spread of the Gaza war and have focused on the possibility of a full-scale conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement, which is aligned with Iran.

Despite numerous efforts and serious warnings, the risk of regional conflict spreading is increasing every hour, prompting U.S. President’s special envoy Amos Hochstein to emphasize the danger of a larger war during his stops in Jerusalem and Beirut.

A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would be devastating for all parties involved and its tremors would affect the entire region and beyond.

This war carries the risk of damaging the fragile process of normalizing relations, a process carefully led by the United States to improve relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

Moreover, a full-scale war would likely involve Iran more broadly and openly compared to the bloody and inconclusive wars between Israel and Hezbollah in 1996 and 2006.

This was Iran’s message in April when it unprecedentedly stepped out from behind its regional proxies and directly attacked Israel from its own territory, breaking a red line that had been observed for decades.

But with increasing internal pressures in Israel to confront Hezbollah, will Israeli leaders continue to heed Washington’s calls for restraint?

Since the start of Israel’s retaliatory military campaign in Gaza eight months ago, Hezbollah and Israeli forces have been exchanging fire across the border.

However, they have kept these daily exchanges below the threshold of a full-scale war, within what Lebanese politicians call the rules of the game—informal templates established after 2006 to reduce the risk of miscalculation and escalation by both sides.

Yet as Hochstein pointed out, the past 19 days have seen a fundamental shift with a significant escalation by Hezbollah and the rules of the game being stretched to new levels.

He emphasized that immediate de-escalation is necessary and that the exchange of fire along the Blue Line—the border between Israel and Lebanon—has continued for too long.

Last week, Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets and drones at Israeli military sites after one of its senior commanders, Taleb Abdullah, was targeted and killed by Israeli forces.

The group has used explosive-laden drones alongside missile and anti-tank rocket attacks, and in May, for the first time, it sent a missile-equipped drone towards Israel.

Overall, Hezbollah claims to have carried out over 2,000 attacks on Israel since October and, encouraged by Iran, has declared it will only cease hostilities once an agreement is reached in Gaza—a possibility that seems more distant each passing day.

Adding to the concerns, Hezbollah this week increased its threats and released nearly ten minutes of footage from the Haifa port and other sensitive military locations in northern Israel, including the Iron Dome and David’s Sling defense systems.

The group announced that this footage was recorded by a reconnaissance drone that managed to return to Lebanon unimpeded. Meanwhile, Israel has been warning for months of its intention to push Iran-backed Hezbollah further from the Lebanese border and beyond the Litani River, through diplomacy or war.

In recent days, Israeli officials’ rhetoric has also noticeably hardened. Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned Hezbollah that it would be destroyed in the event of a full-scale war and stated that Israel is very close to deciding to change the rules of the game against Hezbollah and Lebanon. On Tuesday, Israeli government spokesman David Menser emphasized that Israel will ensure the safe and secure return of Israelis to their homes in northern Israel, most of whom are currently staying in hotels in Tel Aviv at the government’s expense.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army announced that IDF commanders have approved their operational plans for an attack on Israel’s northern border, including decisions to expedite troop preparations on the ground. All that is now needed is the green light from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israel’s intensified rhetoric on Wednesday was accompanied by threats from Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who warned that if a full-scale war begins, no place in Israel will be safe.

To further emphasize, he declared that the theater of war would extend beyond the Levant and include Cyprus if it allows Israel to use its airports and facilities for logistics.

Nasrallah issued a chilling warning that the situation in the Mediterranean would change completely, and Hezbollah would fight without regard for rules and limitations.

However, while these threats and counter-threats are partly intended to deter the other side from excessive aggression, they also risk making it harder for either side to back down.

Israelis are currently not ready for compromise, and senior commanders, despite increasing criticism of Netanyahu for a war that seems to drag on forever in Gaza and accusing him of prolonging it for political reasons, are eager to confront Hezbollah.

In December, Netanyahu resisted pressure from army commanders and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to order an attack on Hezbollah, but now he is under pressure from displaced families and northern politicians who ask why they are treated differently compared to southern Israeli communities.

They say if part of the logic of the war with Hamas is to ensure permanent security for the southern Israeli kibbutzim, then the eighty thousand displaced in the north near the Lebanese border should have the same protection.

Moreover, most Israeli Jews believe that eventually, a major attack must be carried out.

According to a survey by the Jewish People Policy Institute, 36% of respondents support an immediate attack on Lebanon, and another 26% say it should take place after the Gaza operation ends.

The right-wing and religious extremist factions in Netanyahu’s controversial coalition also advocate for a major military response. For example, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich both advise the Israeli Prime Minister not to yield under U.S. pressure.

Their apparent argument is that an attack on Lebanon would be another war to defend Israel and protect it from its enemies.

However, many of these far-rightists, including Ben-Gvir’s wife Ayala, see a war with Hezbollah as an opportunity to seize southern Lebanon, which they consider part of the divine promised land and a territory that should become a place of residence for Israelis.