Bashar is gone
Bashar is gone
In just 11 days, a massive attack by Syrian rebels led by the jihadist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham ended fifty years of Assad family rule. Now, what will happen?
Fifty years of undisputed rule by the Assad family over Syria, nearly fourteen of which were spent in the vortex of civil war, all vanished in just 11 days after Syrian rebels launched a massive attack against Bashar al-Assad’s government on the past November 27th. Bashar had come to power in 2000 after the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad. On the evening of January 8th, the rebels announced they had taken control of Damascus, the country’s capital, and declared it liberated, while there were reports of President Assad fleeing on a special plane to an unknown destination.
The main attacking group, which started from the north, is the jihadist movement Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani. In recent days, the rebel leader has begun using his real name, Ahmad al-Shara’a, instead of his battlefield alias. This move is part of a broader operation to create a positive image of themselves, aiming to present Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and its leader as negotiable parties, distant from the more extreme aspects of Sunni jihadism. The fall of Assad, which was unimaginable just weeks ago, brings new prospects for the country and the region and certainly marks a turning point.
The end of Assad
A coalition of Islamist groups and Turkish supporters announced last night that Damascus has been liberated from the dictator Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based NGO that uses a network of field activists, confirmed that Bashar al-Assad left the capital’s airport, with security forces retreating immediately after the presidential plane took off. The destination of the now former president was unknown until Moscow announced Assad and his family were in Russia.
The rebels described this moment as a liberation long awaited by the displaced and prisoners. Armed men seized the Syrian TV and radio building, forcing the staff to leave.
Thousands have gathered in the city center at Umayyad Square near the Ministry of Defense and the Army Headquarters. Statues of the Assad family, including those of the father Hafez and his brother Basil, who died in a mysterious incident in 1994, were destroyed in various locations.
The rebels also announced that they have captured the Saydnaya military prison, located about 30 kilometers north of Damascus, known for the regime’s security apparatus’s inhumane treatment of prisoners.
Is Syria lost?
Shortly before the announcement about Damascus, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham also took full control of Homs, the country’s third-largest city, after the Islamist group moved there following the capture of Hama.
The pan-Arab Al Jazeera reported celebrations in the city with crowds gathering at the Clock Square, thrilled by Bashar al-Assad’s fall. In recent days, with the activation of armed groups in the south of the country, the rebels began a real siege of the capital, whose fall took only a few hours.
The advance of opposition forces was very rapid and caught the regular army by surprise. The lack of intervention by Assad’s main allies, Russia and Iran, who operated through Tehran-affiliated groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraqi Shiite fighters, also played a role.
The regime that had ruled Syria for more than half a century suddenly found itself alone and without support, losing control of the country’s largest cities in just a few days.
What happens now?
We are in the final chapter of a bloody history that began in 2011 with a series of protests against Assad, which turned into a civil war and then escalated into a regional and international conflict. Now, a difficult transition phase begins, where power balances will mainly be determined based on field developments. Shortly after the rebels’ announcement, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Jalali declared that he had his last contact with Assad the previous night and has no information about the current position of the president.
In an interview with the pan-Arab Asharq Al-Awsat network, Jalali revealed that he had spoken with the leader of the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham group and emphasized the importance of preserving state institutions. The Prime Minister also expressed his readiness to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the Syrian people. Several issues remain to be resolved territorially, such as the coastal region, where a significant portion of the Alawite population supporting Assad is concentrated, and the Russian bases in Tartus and Latakia are located, which have not yet been taken over by the rebels.
This region will likely be the subject of negotiations between Iran, Turkey, and Russia. The foreign ministers of these countries gathered in Doha yesterday to decide on the future structure of the country. However, northeastern Syria is in the hands of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who have advanced west of the Euphrates at the regime’s expense in recent days. In other words, they are participating in the disintegration process of the Syrian Arab Republic, which was under Assad’s leadership.
The future political structure of Syria will be a complex issue. The rebel front is not unified, and as such, various groups have fiercely competed to determine which one would capture the capital first. However, there is no doubt that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has acted as the military and even diplomatic backbone of this massive attack. In recent days, al-Julani has made significant efforts to present a credible image of himself and the movement he represents, distancing from aspects associated with Salafi jihadism. The rebel leader has also directly, albeit behind the scenes, engaged in discussions with various local and international actors, including Russia, Israel, Iraq, and Jordan, and has acted as the de facto leader of the new Syrian government.
