Battle with Putin on Washington Time
The Shadow of U.S. Elections on Ukraine
Battle with Putin on Washington time occurred just hours after the Supreme Court’s ruling on Donald Trump’s eligibility, when Republicans rejected a proposal in the Senate, leaving aid to Ukraine shrouded in uncertainty.
The bipartisan bill on aid to Ukraine is dead, and the U.S. Congress’s management seems neither favorable nor efficient. On February 7th, at the end of a tumultuous day and after months of intense negotiations, the U.S. Senate rejected a $120 billion bipartisan package with 50 votes against and 49 in favor, which included $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, $12 billion to Israel, and 20 other countries for border security. Republicans opposed this plan in response to Donald Trump’s request, and thus the supermajority of 60 votes, about ten more than the Democrats, was not achieved to pass this resolution.
Chuck Schumer, the Democratic majority leader in the U.S. Senate, in an effort to maintain support for Kyiv at this critical moment, when it seems the conflict is shifting in favor of Moscow, proposed a new aid bill that removed the section on U.S. border security measures. It is a kind of temporary plan solely to aid Ukraine and Israel with a $96 billion aid package.
It cannot be said whether it will pass or not. The level of tension between the two parties is currently very high, and at this time, the Supreme Court has been called to decide on another hot issue of the day: confirming Donald Trump’s eligibility or, conversely, removing him from the upcoming U.S. presidential election race. According to the Colorado judicial system’s request, this ruling could permanently bar the businessman from competing for the White House due to his role in the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack.
Chaos in Congress
Even if Chuck Schumer’s plan passes in the Senate, it must also be voted on in the House of Representatives, where Republicans hold the majority, and it needs to be scheduled by Speaker Mike Johnson, a loyal Trump ally. Johnson held a vote on the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on the evening of Tuesday, February 6th, but incredibly, the Republican Party did not secure the necessary votes, and the vote did not pass, marking an unprecedented event for Republicans and their representatives. Moments later, a Republican representative from Louisiana proposed a bill to aid Israel, which also failed.
CNN, reporting on the chaos reigning in the House of Representatives and the conservative party, states it is unclear whether Johnson, who leads a small majority held hostage by extremists, has the capacity or political space to pass even the simplest laws. However, one evident fact is that the inefficiency of Congress becomes more apparent as we get closer to the November elections, and the outlook for Ukraine becomes increasingly bleak.
Does Europe Trust?
In the face of the chaos reigning in Congress, which is divided due to serious conflicts and deep disagreements, European diplomats, who were previously worried that Donald Trump might be re-elected and fulfill his promise to withdraw from NATO, have begun to question the credibility of the U.S. Supreme Court, regardless of who is president.
A senior European diplomat in Berlin expressed surprise, stating that if Republicans are willing to bow to Trump by voting against supporting Ukraine, why should Europe trust the U.S. guarantee to defend every inch of NATO member countries’ territory?
The threat of Congress cutting this aid comes as Europe announces a $54 billion aid package for Ukraine and EU countries have committed to new arms aid. Additionally, behind the scenes in Washington and Europe, there is a discussion about the possibility of financing the war with over $300 billion in Russian Central Bank assets frozen in Western countries, a process that is much more complicated than expected.
However, American officials acknowledged that no aid can match the power of the new $60 billion congressional allocation, which includes strengthening air defense, more tanks, missiles, and a massive amount of ammunition.
Putin’s Bet on Western Betrayal
U.S. President Joe Biden, in a sharp speech, directly attacked Donald Trump and rejected his claim on the Truth social platform that labeled this bill as a very complex trap to blame Republicans for what the radical Democrats have done at the borders.
Some Republican lawmakers, echoing Trump’s concerns about the impact of passing this bill on the presidential race, have even suggested that border security should not be addressed until after the November elections. However, Democrats claim their main concern is for Kyiv.
White House officials insist that this aid will eventually pass because everyone knows that if this aid does not happen, the consequences will be profound. They stated that we cannot leave the scene now. This is what Putin has bet on. President Biden, reminding that every week and every month without new aid means fewer artillery shells and air defense systems, emphasized that if the U.S. betrays Ukraine at this critical moment, this event will never be forgotten in history.
The deadlock in funding aid packages for Ukraine and the Middle East is a testament to the fragmentation and division in Congress, where, in addition to the fundamental gap between Republicans and Democrats, intra-party disagreements are also dramatically increasing.
In the backdrop of an election campaign that promises to be bitter and bumpy, this situation is likely to escalate tensions further, in addition to the shadow of Donald Trump weighing heavily on both parties’ efforts to break the deadlock. The former president, who is grappling with his legal issues and awaiting a court ruling on his disqualification from the Colorado primaries, seems to be betting on the institutional paralysis that indeed confirms the weakness of the current government, a government whose popularity, according to polls, has also declined in recent weeks.
