The realization of the budget is very far off
The realization of the budget is very far off
The annual budget rules are undoubtedly one of the most important strategies of the country and the government. Based on this strategy, the government actually determines its one-year policy, and this policy can also lay the foundation for the country’s future economic infrastructure.
Now that the Parliament is reviewing the budget bill for the year 1404, it is better during this review, which also includes medium-term goals, to resolve some of the fundamental obstacles facing the government. Essentially, to strengthen the country’s economic foundation, the fundamental barriers to the goals set in the budget should be removed.
It is better to take a look at one of the Parliament’s resolutions and the next year’s budget bill in this regard. In my opinion, Paragraph P of Note 3 of the budget bill, which incidentally has also been approved in the Parliament’s open session and, as stated in the bill, is also one of the previous Parliament’s resolutions, can carry this discussion.
Based on Paragraph P of Note 3 of the budget bill, in order to encourage the subsidiaries of the Ministry of Oil to realize the general policies of the Seventh Program, increase crude oil and gas production, and turn Iran into the regional energy hub, the resources of the oil and gas investment account, subject to Paragraph B of Article 14 of the Seventh Development Program Law, are solely provided from the increase in sustainable crude oil production to more than three million seven hundred and fifty thousand barrels daily, leading to oil exports, as well as an increase in net natural gas exports to more than sixteen billion cubic meters annually. The share of the National Iranian Oil Company and the subsidiaries of the Ministry of Oil from the aforementioned oil export surplus is set at sixteen (16) percent. This paragraph essentially has two important sections: the first is turning Iran into the regional energy hub according to the general policies of the Seventh Program, and the second is laying the groundwork for exporting more than 3 million and 750 thousand barrels daily.
Achieving each of these sections requires a lot of groundwork, and at the same time, some questions need to be answered. To become a regional hub, especially in the energy sector, very special and specific measures must be implemented.
Without a doubt, with the presence of energy giant countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar, especially in terms of gas exports, Iran cannot easily enter the energy competition.
The competition field in the energy sector is not so vast and extensive that it can be achieved by approving a paragraph of a note obliging the government to reach that goal. Currently, each of these countries not only has their own markets but has also captured Iran’s markets, and for Iran to reclaim its oil markets, it must employ policies and also wait a long time.
However, the first step to entering the competition is massive investments in the oil and gas sector. For example, in 1400, the Ministry of Oil announced that the required investment in the oil sector is 230 billion dollars, in the gas sector 130 billion dollars, in the refining and distribution of oil products 20 billion dollars, and in the petrochemical industry about 65 billion dollars.
In total, 445 billion dollars must be invested to perhaps maintain the current situation. This amount was based on the estimates of 1400, and undoubtedly, this investment amount will increase every year.
Has Iran provided the necessary groundwork and removed the limitations to attract such an amount of investment? And if the limitations are removed, which given the recent policies is currently unlikely, will the regional countries easily give way to Iran? Answering each of these questions requires another time.
But for the second part of this note to be implemented, it means that Iran must have the capability to produce more than 5 million barrels per day, so it can export more than 3 million barrels of it. Achieving this requires an investment of over 445 billion dollars, which experts should calculate.
There was a time when Iran was supposed to become the first country in the region based on the 1400 Vision Plan, which was drafted in 1380. Iran was supposed to become the first country in the region in every aspect by this year. Now, 3 years have passed since the vision, and not only did Iran not become the first country in the region, but it has also fallen behind the regional countries year by year. The reasons for this backwardness are clear and do not need to be reiterated and re-published. Legislators just need to be told that laws should be built in accordance with the capabilities of the government and the country, not based on unattainable dreams and aspirations.
