Comparison of the Economic Records of Six Post-Revolution Governments
Comparison of the economic records of six governments after the revolution. According to Iran Gate, the country’s economic situation is so dire that many citizens, recalling past eras, consider Raisi’s performance to be significantly weaker than other governments. Most economists believe that Ebrahim Raisi and his government score particularly low in the economic domain compared to governments that have steered the country through critical periods to the present.
Ebrahim Raisi and his government not only have serious managerial weaknesses but also show a conspicuous deficiency in theoretical and intellectual areas. Each post-revolution government that is examined reveals its direction in managing the country’s economy, but this is not at all discernible in Raisi’s government. Many believe this confusion stems from the academic weakness of the thirteenth cabinet and the lack of operational capabilities among the members of the government.
Iran Gate has explored the general outline of the economic policies of post-revolution governments in a two-part report. This report, the second part of which examines the approaches of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s ninth and tenth governments, Hassan Rouhani’s eleventh and twelfth governments, and Ebrahim Raisi’s thirteenth government.
The Wealthy Populist
Economists almost unanimously agree that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a populist reliant on oil. Liberals consider him a leftist populist, while communists and socialists describe Ahmadinejad as a populist from the ranks of far-right politicians. However, perhaps Ahmadinejad can be likened to figures like Brazil’s far-right Bolsonaro, Venezuela’s socialist Chávez, Venezuela’s socialist Maduro, Thailand’s far-right Duterte, and America’s far-right Trump. The common feature of all these politicians is their populism, although ideologically they have significant differences.
Perhaps the best description of Ahmadinejad was recently provided by Saeed Hajjarian, who referred to Ahmadinejad as a wealthy populist. Although a glance at the budget deficit statistics from 2005 to 2013 clearly reveals the dire state of the government, considering the sudden and unprecedented rise in oil prices and the absence of oil sanctions, it can be said that Ahmadinejad had the wealthiest government after the revolution.
Ahmadinejad owes this situation to the foreign policy of Seyed Mohammad Khatami during the seventh and eighth governments. The result was approximately $800 billion in revenue during Ahmadinejad’s eight-year presidency, but ultimately, what remained for the country was almost nothing.
Shift from the Niavaran Circle to Chaleh Meydan
Hassan Rouhani’s economic policies underwent significant changes with his change of government. In his first government, for the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic, he appointed a combination of technocrat and liberal managers. As mentioned, it was the first time that such a theoretically cohesive team had come to power in the government’s economic team. A team led by Ali Tayebnia and with the insightful advice of the Nili brothers was remarkably effective in managing economic crises, including the financial and credit institutions crisis. In short, it can be said that the government’s economic team had its roots in the Niavaran Circle, which consisted entirely of liberal economists.
However, in Hassan Rouhani’s second government, the situation completely changed. Just as Rouhani’s political stances had noticeably shifted after 2017, his approach to the economy also showed significant changes. After winning the twelfth presidential election, Hassan Rouhani introduced a strange combination to the tenth parliament that shocked everyone and indicated a shift in Rouhani’s approach to the country’s macro-management, including the economy.
The combination that went from Ali Tayebnia and Nili to Dejpasand and Nobakht was practically a losing team that only presented a caricature of the country’s great technocrats.
Perhaps it can be mockingly said that Hassan Rouhani made a historic shift from the Niavaran Circle to Chaleh Meydan, Tehran, and no one yet knows the reason for this change in approach. However, some government supporters claim that the rise of Donald Trump in America and the United States’ withdrawal from the JCPOA was the main reason for this change, but this justification cannot at all explain the reason for making such a wrong decision.
Because in a crisis, he should have naturally turned to experienced economists who could handle large and small crises, not appoint Farhad Dejpasand as Minister of Economy, an individual whose academic shortcomings are so apparent that even his students mock him in class.
High Posture, Empty Pocket
As previously mentioned, Ebrahim Raisi’s government is the most indecisive government after the revolution. A kind of theoretical confusion is clearly observable in the statements and decisions of government managers. Many believe that Ebrahim Raisi’s government is a mixture of populism and political ineptitude that has become trapped in daily routines.
Perhaps it is worthwhile to return to Hajjarian’s description of the two governments of Ahmadinejad and Raisi: wealthy and penniless populists. Yes, Ebrahim Raisi heads a cabinet that is not only highly amateurish in its populism but also tries to present the posture that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did, with pockets empty of the oil dollars from the late 2000s.
The thirteenth government is neither right nor left. It is a symbol of managerial confusion and academic poverty, a poverty that has now led the country into daily routines. Every day, a new crisis created by the same government emerges, and without being able to resolve the previous crisis, it moves on to the next. This is how we witness the accumulation of large and small economic crises in the country, crises that manifest with the ugly face of inflation and increasingly tighten their grip on the people.
Comparison of the Economic Records of Six Post-Revolution Governments Part 1
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