Istanbul’s Conquest by Rival
Turkey’s Surprising Defeat
The conquest of Istanbul by the rival, the Republican People’s Party of Turkey, which is one of the main opposition parties against Erdogan’s government, and the most significant one, captured all major cities in Turkey and was reaffirmed in Istanbul and Ankara. This event marks the worst defeat for Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party in the past two decades.
After all candidates of the Justice and Development Party were defeated in all major cities on Sunday, March 31, in a speech broadcasted on state television from the headquarters of the Justice and Development Party in Ankara, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that unfortunately, we did not achieve the result we wanted, thus acknowledging defeat in the municipal elections.
This defeat was very bitter for Erdogan’s party because it included regions like Anatolia, which were once considered the main stronghold of the majority party, and it signified a historic victory for the opposition. Meanwhile, in the two major cities of Ankara and Istanbul, this victory confirmed the polls from five years ago, which predicted that in the upcoming municipal elections, the Justice and Development Party would be defeated after 20 years of uncontested dominance. Özgür Özel, the secretary of the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, said today our voters made a very important decision; they decided to create a new policy in Turkey.
Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul and leader of the Republican People’s Party, thanked the voters, addressing them by saying, ‘People of Istanbul, you entrusted us with authority and opened the door to the future.’ The defeat of the majority party occurred less than a year after Erdogan was re-elected for a new presidential term, a victory that, despite difficult economic conditions and numerous criticisms for emergency management after the devastating February 2023 earthquake, reinforced the president’s grip on the country.
A Historic Victory
The numbers indicate that the Justice and Development Party still dominates the central part of the country and southeastern regions, including the cities of Kahramanmaraş and Gaziantep, although it has lost control of Adıyaman. However, the pro-Kurdish Democratic Party won in many southeastern areas, and vast regions in the west, south, and north came under the control of the Republican People’s Party, which managed to win in Izmir, Ankara, Adana, and areas like Antalya, Bursa—Turkey’s fourth-largest city—and Balıkesir.
In Istanbul, Mayor İmamoğlu surpassed his rival candidate by ten points, which means over a million votes, and according to the Turkish Supreme Election Council, the Republican People’s Party won in 36 out of 81 provinces in the country. İmamoğlu, in this context, wrote on the social network X, ‘As we celebrate our victory, we send a message to the world: the decline of democracy now ends.’
İmamoğlu, born in a small village in the Erzincan province in the Anatolia region, became the mayor of Istanbul in 2019 and was a candidate for the vice-presidency in the last general elections alongside his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Today, according to several analysts, he is the main winner of the elections as he seems to have gained more political weight and popularity from this election, and it is believed that İmamoğlu could be a potential contender in the upcoming presidential elections in Turkey.
Reasons for Defeat
This is actually the first heavy defeat that the Justice and Development Party has suffered since Erdogan came to power 21 years ago. Therefore, the survey results carry a message that the president cannot ignore. The elections were held amid a prolonged economic recession, and despite a slight turn by the president after the re-election in May and the adoption of orthodox economic policies to reduce inflation and consumer prices, this stagnation continues.
In orthodox economic policies, which are globally accepted economic policies, the central bank is completely independent, and no governmental or military security entity has the right to interfere in the central bank’s affairs. In monetary policy, the orthodox method uses interest rates as the main tool, and the regular use of the budget controls public spending, and the policy is fully open based on economic activities. Although the return of Mehmet Şimşek as Minister of Finance and the central bank’s decision to raise interest rates to 45 percent in January was welcomed as positive news by the markets, inflation in the country remains high.
Official data shows that prices in February increased by 67 percent compared to the same period last year, although unofficial estimates put this figure at 100 percent or more. It seems that dissatisfaction with the economic recession has discouraged part of the Justice and Development Party’s electoral base from going to the polls, while other voters joined the new Islamist party, the New Welfare Party. This party, a new offshoot of the Justice and Development Party, emerged following Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s refusal to cut trade relations with Israel despite the war in Gaza.
No to Erdogan
It is unlikely that the political earthquake of the local elections will have an immediate reflection on the country’s political scene. There is no significant deadline from now until the end of the four-year legislative term, and until then, Erdogan will try to strengthen his alliance network. The Justice and Development Party has by far the most representatives in parliament, but its power also has limitations, including not having enough votes to revise the constitution and allow the president to run again for the presidency in 2028, and in any case, the goal of expanding his power may be beyond reach.
Selim Koru, an analyst at the Tepav think tank based in Ankara, says what has changed in light of the vote is actually beyond imagination. This vote was a ‘no’ to Erdogan, especially in Istanbul and many other places. However, many see the Turkish community’s vote for thousands of local administrators as a referendum on Erdogan’s authoritarian and autocratic style of governance, which includes interventions in monetary policies, restrictions on freedom of expression, and political influence in the judiciary.
This defeat, compared to the presidential elections last May, where Erdogan won against a coalition of six opposition parties seeking to oust him, is a clear turning point. Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, an analyst at the Brookings Institution based in Washington, said, ‘Good with the bad, this is a decisive call for change,’ and also believes that Erdogan can no longer count on opponents who are in disarray and disorder.
Erdogan is not invincible; this is the message that came out of the local elections, which is the first significant and unexpected defeat for the President of Turkey and the Justice and Development Party, which has been in power for over 20 years. Therefore, it seems that the wind of change is blowing in the country, where growing dissatisfaction with the difficult economic situation has turned into a protest vote against the president and his government. Although no political earthquake is expected in the next four years, it is legitimate to ask what reflection this will have on Turkey’s leadership and the Justice and Development Party, where we still do not see a successor for Erdogan.
