Struggle for a Seat
The struggle for a seat in the second round of the Islamic Consultative Assembly elections was held on May 11 to determine the fate of the remaining 45 seats. However, what is important for the principlists is not the effort to claim the vacant seats of the parliament, but the struggle over the presidency of the parliament. It’s not that they haven’t taken the impact of the remaining 45 representatives seriously, but a significant part of the radical principlist movements and those known as the super-revolutionaries have lined up against Qalibaf and his allies in such a way that an unexpected event might occur in the composition of the twelfth parliament’s presidium.
Qalibaf’s four-year tenure as the president has made him a claimant to the presidency, and losing this position would be a political defeat for him, especially to his own faction, which has long been against him.
On one hand, the government is worried about his presidency of the twelfth parliament and his potential aspirations for the future presidency, and on the other hand, the super-revolutionaries are seeking to settle their internal factional disputes. They have advanced to the point where they managed to expose him during the elections, making him the fourth on the list of Tehran’s elected, and among the 14 representatives who made it to the parliament, not a single one is close to Qalibaf, leaving him a lone commander in the twelfth parliament.
Although lobbying for the presidency outside the parliament is still going strong, and some believe that the presidency will be decided outside the parliament, ultimately giving Qalibaf a strong chance. However, if Qalibaf is eliminated in the presidium elections, he will be sidelined, watching rival figures preside over a parliament with a composition of radical principlists.
This is, of course, assuming that Qalibaf does not withdraw from the parliament, as there is a rumor that if he loses the chance to sit in the presidential seat, he will give up simple representation.
Although this speculation does not align with Qalibaf’s temperament, and he would prefer to stay in the political game rather than be eliminated, especially when he sees his opponents attacking him from various platforms, like what Raefi-Pour interpreted from Qalibaf’s Teacher’s Day speech and criticized him for it. These targeted attacks have not stopped for months, making the internal struggles of the principlists more apparent than ever.
Meanwhile, Mohammad Mohajeri told Nameh News about the main rivals of Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf for the presidency of the next parliament, saying that the attacks on Mr. Qalibaf are numerous. Three people, namely Mr. Zolnour, Agha Tehrani, and Nikzad, threaten Mr. Qalibaf’s presidential seat. However, since the twelfth parliament will be politically multi-factional, with none having a majority, and these factions having severe disagreements, this issue will prevent the parliament’s president from being able to consolidate and manage the space.
He also believes that if Qalibaf becomes the parliament’s president, he will certainly face attacks and harsh criticisms from the stability and trustees factions. In fact, the twelfth parliament will be one that is constantly in conflict.
Even if these conflicts are attempted to be controlled from outside the parliament, the atmosphere will not calm down, and these differences will certainly show themselves at times. Mohajeri also spoke about the possibility of Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf withdrawing from representation if he does not become the president of the twelfth parliament, saying that Qalibaf is not like Hashemi Rafsanjani, who would have other opportunities if not president.
If Mr. Qalibaf does not become president, he will not resign from parliament because if he resigns, he will lose the role he can play in parliament.
Even if Qalibaf does not become president, he can form a faction of 60 to 70 members in parliament and influence the equations and decision-making, creating power for himself. However, if he withdraws from representation, he will effectively be finished. Overall, even if Mr. Qalibaf becomes president in the next parliament, he will not be an effective and powerful president.
In any case, what is important is that amidst these internal factional disputes, which are sometimes accompanied by misconduct, there is no news of presenting ideas to improve the parliament’s performance or discussing the need to regulate laws in parliament or organizing the flawed expectations of representatives from representation and avoiding crises like the SUV rent scandal.
The only focus of the principlist movements is whether Qalibaf remains the parliament’s president or someone else takes the position. Naturally, this lack of ideas has not changed in the second round of elections, and the door continues to revolve around the same axis of idea-lessness and the ongoing struggle for power. What seems unimportant is national interests, while what is important are party and factional interests, which have led the eleventh parliament to decline.
