Duel at the White House
Duel at the White House
Zelensky and Trump: Agreement or Threat
In Washington, it’s the day of signing a mining agreement, but the ambiguity behind this agreement between Trump and Zelensky reflects the uncertainty in Ukraine’s fate. With the usual speed of change in direction that Donald Trump has introduced in international relations, today Volodymyr Zelensky was welcomed at the White House, a place that just a few days ago was defined as dictatorial.
The American president, before the face-to-face meeting, said this meeting will be very good and we will get along very well. I have great respect for him. Denying that he called the Ukrainian head of state a dictator, he responded to a reporter, ‘No, I don’t think I said that.’ This type of denial is a challenge that Zelensky must also face after accusing Trump of living in a bubble of Russian misinformation.
The Ukrainian leader, who was received with full respect in Washington, announced that an agreement will be signed for the exploitation of his country’s mineral resources by the United States.
However, the text of the agreement is very different from what Zelensky himself refrained from signing less than 5 days ago, and informed sources likened it to colonial-style plunder imposed on a desperate country.
The current draft of the document talks about a joint reconstruction fund, but there is no mention of Trump’s initial request for $500 billion in compensation for military and financial aid allocated by the United States, which independent analysts actually estimate at about $120 billion.
This issue, along with the fact that many other details still need to be clarified, will not prevent Trump from presenting the agreement as a remarkable victory for himself and the Americans.
What does the agreement foresee?
The final version of this agreement, dated February 25 and published by Kyiv Independent, includes the creation of a fund that will also be open to third parties, and Kyiv will cover 50% of the income derived from the future monetization of state mineral resources, including oil, gas, and related logistics costs.
This fund will play a significant role in the development of some of Ukraine’s mineral resources through financing extraction projects.
In recent days, Trump has repeatedly talked about rare lands, but he probably meant critical minerals, a group of raw materials that include rare earths and are essential for some strategic sectors of the economy like electronic defense or energy transition.
Ukraine, which does not have significant reserves of rare earths, possesses underground reserves of critical minerals, including lithium, graphite, cobalt, and titanium. Additionally, there is a risk that the subsoil of the country may not be as rich in raw materials as Washington believes.
On paper, the extraction potential is enormous, but in practice, as Politico writes, the extent of Ukraine’s mineral resources remains largely a mystery. The Kyiv government reports the existence of more than 20,000 reserves and mining sites, of which only 8,000 are actually deemed exploitable.
There are no guarantees for Kyiv.
While Trump considers himself responsible for a victory that benefits the United States, what this agreement brings for Ukraine is less clear.
In addition to critical issues like the extent of US participation in the fund and the terms of joint ownership agreements that need to be discussed in subsequent agreements, this document makes no mention of a US commitment to defend the invaded country.
Even if he manages to remove the punitive aspects of the proposed agreement, the truth is that Zelensky is trying to use his country’s resources as leverage to secure the security guarantees Ukraine needs for its survival after any peace agreement.
Yesterday in Istanbul, Russian and American diplomats met again in negotiations that practically sideline Kyiv.
For this reason, the Ukrainian leader will instead be at the forefront of participants on Sunday in London at a session organized by Keir Starmer for joint European defense and Ukraine’s security. According to Downing Street, this meeting will include leaders from some EU and non-EU countries, as well as senior EU and NATO officials. However, this meeting has expanded compared to a similar format held recently in Paris by Emmanuel Macron and will include heads of government from Norway, Sweden, Finland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and notably Turkey, which is the latest change in recent hours.
Trump: Ambiguous Ally or Enemy
Smiles and handshakes in front of the cameras aside, Zelensky’s trip to Washington takes place amid tension across the Atlantic and at the end of a week where neither Starmer nor Macron could secure a commitment from Trump regarding the security of Ukraine and Europe. The businessman said he supports NATO’s Article 5, but when asked what the United States would do if British peacekeepers in Ukraine were attacked in the future, he replied that the British know how to take care of themselves, but if they need help, we will always be with them. Recent events have left Ukrainians feeling abandoned and betrayed, and even provoked anger among some Republican senators, reigniting debates about Trump’s motivations and how these motivations might affect the chance of achieving a fair and lasting peace agreement.
Is the president motivated by personal animosity towards Zelensky, or is he trying to deceive Vladimir Putin to distance him from Chinese President Xi Jinping, and how much do his actions reflect a long-term shift in US foreign policy? These are questions that in Europe were enough to revive discussions about the need for rearmament and self-defense guarantees, but in Ukraine, these issues differentiate between an undesirable agreement and an existential defeat.
The moment of truth may soon arrive and show that the transatlantic alliance has fractured, and Brussels, like Kyiv, must become independent of America or may even stand against it.
Zelensky is aware of the importance of the active role of the United States in security guarantees. What is revealed from the draft agreement offers no guarantees in this regard but keeps a communication channel open at a time when relations with Washington are tense due to Trump’s harsh words and threats.
And it seems that for Zelensky, this is currently sufficient, as he likely believes he can negotiate with Trump at another time.
When this agreement is clearly defined, we can talk about the potential economic benefits for Kyiv, but for now, we must only recognize its political weight for Ukraine in a critical situation.
