The Duel of the Atomics
The Duel of the Atomics
As Tehran was preparing for sensitive negotiations with Europe and the fourth round of talks with the United States in Rome, Iran’s eastern neighbors were on the brink of an unprecedented tension.
The April 22, 2025 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which resulted in the death of 26 tourists, has brought India-Pakistan relations to a critical point.
This tension, accompanied by mutual accusations, diplomatic counteractions, and military warnings, not only threatens the stability of the subcontinent but also impacts the security of Iran’s eastern borders and its surrounding geopolitics.
Due to its historical ties and strategic position, Iran is compelled to play a mediating role and strive to manage the crisis.
The Pahalgam Attack and Escalating India-Pakistan Tensions
The April 22, 2025 terrorist attack in the tourist area of Pahalgam, Kashmir, carried out by the Resistance Front group affiliated with Lashkar-e-Taiba, was the worst attack on civilians in Kashmir since 2008.
This attack, which left 26 dead and more than 20 injured, provoked a strong reaction from India.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi granted full operational freedom to the armed forces and accused Pakistan of supporting terrorism, imposing severe diplomatic actions including suspending the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, expelling Pakistani diplomats, and closing land borders.
In response, Pakistan denied any involvement and called for an impartial investigation.
On April 30, 2025, Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar warned that credible intelligence indicated an imminent Indian military attack within 24 to 36 hours and stated that any aggression would be met with a decisive response.
Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif also spoke of an imminent Indian attack, announcing that the military was on full alert, although nuclear weapons would only be considered in the event of a direct threat to the country’s existence.
This exchange of threats, along with limited skirmishes, has increased the risk of a full-scale military confrontation between the two nuclear powers.
Impact on the Security of Iran’s Eastern Borders
One of the most important aspects of this issue is that the tensions between India and Pakistan have direct consequences for the security of Iran’s eastern borders, especially in the Sistan and Baluchestan province.
This region, which borders Pakistan, is security-fragile due to the activities of Jaish al-Adl and drug trafficking.
Therefore, if the conflict between India and Pakistan escalates, instability in Pakistani Baluchistan could spill over into Iran.
According to Al Jazeera, the closure of the Wagah border and Pakistan’s trade restrictions with India have put border economies under pressure and could increase illegal activities at the Iranian border.
Furthermore, any military conflict could trigger a wave of refugees from Pakistani Baluchistan to Iran, imposing a heavy economic and security burden on Tehran.
According to the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, Iran’s border trade with Pakistan was around $25 billion in 2024, and any disruption to this trade could weaken the economies of border areas.
Additionally, escalating tensions might encourage militant groups to exploit regional chaos, threatening Iran’s internal security.
Geopolitical Implications for the Region
In addition to the above points, it must be acknowledged that the escalation of the crisis between India and Pakistan affects the region’s geopolitics beyond the subcontinent.
South Asia, due to the presence of two nuclear powers and historical rivalries, is one of the most unstable regions in the world.
According to the Chatham House Institute, this crisis could further weaken regional cooperation within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which has been stalled since 2014.
For Iran, these tensions create challenges in relations with regional powers. China, a close ally of Pakistan, has called for restraint, but Beijing’s support for Islamabad could complicate Iran’s relations with India.
India, as a significant trade partner for Iran with $2 billion in trade in 2024, plays a key role in projects like the Chabahar port.
Any conflict could disrupt the progress of this project, which is vital for Iran’s access to Central Asia.
Moreover, escalating tensions may divert global powers’ attention from Iran’s nuclear negotiations.
The United States, which has closer relations with India, has supported India but called for a responsible solution.
This situation could overshadow the Rome talks and weaken Iran’s position in global diplomacy.
Iran’s Mediating Role
Iran, considering its historical and cultural relations with India and Pakistan, is in a unique position to mediate.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced last Friday, April 25, 2025, that Tehran is ready to use good offices to reduce tensions in Islamabad and New Delhi.
Araghchi’s Twitter proposal was met with implicit support from the United Nations, with Secretary-General António Guterres appreciating Pakistan’s efforts for peace and calling for avoiding escalation.
It is noteworthy that Iran’s history of mediation, such as its role in the Karabakh crisis, demonstrates Tehran’s diplomatic capacity.
Iran can leverage its relations with China, Turkey, and Gulf countries, all of which have called for de-escalation, to form a diplomatic coalition.
According to Al-Hadath, Saudi Arabia and Iraq have also supported direct talks between India and Pakistan, which could provide a platform for Iran’s initiatives.
However, Iran’s mediation faces challenges.
Tehran’s relations with India are fragile due to sanctions and disagreements over Chabahar, and Iran’s proximity to Pakistan might make New Delhi cautious.
Moreover, Iran’s focus on nuclear negotiations with the US, Europe, and the agency may not provide the necessary focus and diplomatic resources for mediating between the two nuclear powers.
Nevertheless, successful mediation could enhance Iran’s standing as a responsible actor in the region.
Meanwhile, to control the serious and immediate consequences of the ongoing crisis on national security, Iran must seriously engage in this conflict.
Outlook and Strategic Recommendations
The likelihood of a full-scale conflict between India and Pakistan is low given nuclear deterrence and international pressures, but the risk of limited clashes along the Line of Control and regional instability is serious.
As mentioned, managing this crisis is vital for Tehran to maintain the security of its eastern borders and geopolitical interests.
Therefore, focusing on three parallel and simultaneous paths is inevitable for Iran.
The first issue pertains to strengthening regional diplomacy, where Iran should facilitate multilateral negotiations to reduce tensions in collaboration with China, Turkey, and the United Nations.
The second issue concerns maintaining balance in relations, meaning Iran should keep its relations with India and Pakistan balanced to prevent economic cooperation, especially in Chabahar, from being undermined.
The third issue, which emphasizes public diplomacy, requires Tehran to leverage cultural and historical ties to promote dialogue between New Delhi and Islamabad.
It should be noted that the second and third paths are achievable as medium-term goals, and given the urgency of mediation, the first path should focus on utilizing the capacity of regional and trans-regional actors to prevent tensions between India and Pakistan.
In any case, the tensions arising from the Pahalgam attack have brought India-Pakistan relations to the brink of an unprecedented crisis.
This crisis, with direct impacts on the security of Iran’s eastern borders and regional geopolitics, has compelled Tehran to play an active role in managing tensions.
By relying on historical relations and smart diplomacy, Iran can help reduce tensions while preserving its strategic interests.
Success in this mediation will not only strengthen regional stability but also elevate Iran’s position as a responsible actor in the international system.
In this sensitive period, restraint by India and Pakistan and support from the international community for diplomatic initiatives are key to preventing a regional catastrophe.
