Erdogan and the Madness of Ottoman Power
Turkey in the Arena for Imamoglu and Democracy
The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu marks a dangerous turning point in Erdogan’s authoritarian drift, benefiting from the impunity sentiment of the era of chaos initiated by Trump.
Thousands are joining protests in various Turkish cities to oppose the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who was supposed to be introduced as a presidential candidate.
The leader of the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP) is considered the most influential opponent and main political rival of Recep Tayyip Erdogan since the president took office in 2002.
The position of Istanbul mayor is essentially seen as a political launchpad; Erdogan previously held this position.
Imamoglu was elected mayor in 2019 and last year won again by defeating candidates from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).
It was expected that he would secure the presidential candidacy in the internal party elections planned for the end of this week.
However, his arrest occurred after prosecutors accused him of corruption and supporting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is recognized as a terrorist group in Turkey.
More than a hundred people, including other politicians, journalists, and entrepreneurs, were arrested along with him.
Protesters gathered in streets, universities, and metro stations, chanting anti-government slogans, leading to demonstrations not seen in the country for years.
In Istanbul, protesters gathered in the cold in front of the municipality, shouting ‘Erdogan dictator’ and ‘Imamoglu, you are not alone.’
The governor of Istanbul imposed a four-day restriction, while opposition leaders, including Imamoglu’s wife, urged people to raise their voices.
New protest demonstrations were planned for the coming days.
Turkey is at a crossroads.
Imamoglu’s arrest is part of a broader crackdown by Turkish authorities, who have previously targeted opposition politicians, journalists, and figures in the arts in recent months.
Many on social media have condemned the drift towards autocracy and called on the opposition to boycott the 2028 presidential election, believing that the oppressive environment does not allow for fair and democratic elections.
The Republican People’s Party (CHP) condemned the arrests, calling them a coup against our future president, while Imamoglu, in a video recorded moments before his arrest and shared on social media, vowed to continue fighting for the people of Turkey and all those who defend democracy and justice worldwide.
In recent hours, the UK-based internet monitoring organization Netblocks announced that Turkey has severely restricted network access.
Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunç dismissed suspicions and accusations of a conspiracy to eliminate a dangerous political rival, saying it is very dangerous and wrong to say this is a political move, emphasizing that no one is above the law in Turkey.
Erdogan arrests those who might defeat him.
However, the denials from Turkish officials do not seem very convincing.
Imamoglu’s arrest occurred a day after Istanbul University revoked his degree due to possible violations, a decision that, if confirmed, could jeopardize his candidacy for the presidential election.
According to the Turkish constitution, the president must have completed higher education to hold the position.
Imamoglu described this action as legally baseless and promised to challenge it in court, adding that universities should remain independent, free from political interference, and dedicated to knowledge.
This is not the first time the Istanbul mayor has been involved in judicial processes and investigations, but none of these cases have so far led to convictions that would prevent him from holding public office.
Many suspect that the charges against him are intended to damage his reputation in the public eye to weaken him ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
According to increasingly strong rumors, the Turkish president, who has been in power for 22 years, is trying to find a way to circumvent the three-term limit set by law through constitutional changes or holding early elections in 2026 before his presidential term ends to run again.
Mini Trumps are on the rise.
With the news of Imamoglu’s arrest, the Turkish lira has plummeted to a new historical low against the dollar, as markets, already on alert due to economic uncertainty, are now more concerned about the drift towards authoritarianism.
Additionally, considering the recent wave of crackdowns, the arrest of the Istanbul mayor, the second most important official in the country after the president, signifies Turkey’s entry into uncharted territory.
Never before, despite notable arrests of opponents in the past, has the Turkish president acted so recklessly against Turkey’s oldest party, which belonged to Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey.
Even internationally, reactions have been accompanied by condemnation and astonishment, with EU, French, and German officials all condemning the arrests, as these actions could undermine Ankara’s efforts to reconnect with Europe in defense and security matters, given changes in the international situation.
Just as Europe is trying to strengthen its defenses, Turkey, with the second-largest standing army in NATO and a growing defense industry, is considered a crucial partner.
This, along with the persuasive power of hosting over 4 million refugees ready to enter the EU, and the admiration Trump has expressed for strongmen, may have convinced Turkey’s power system that it can take this action without fear of consequences.
Gonul Tol from the Middle East Institute says that even by Erdogan’s standards, this is a big step, but Trump has created such chaos that foreign autocrats feel they can do whatever they want.
Now the concern is where Turkey is headed, a question that has been raised repeatedly since Erdogan came to power.
With the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, the Istanbul mayor, it seems that even on the domestic front, he is increasingly looking towards Putin’s Russia.
Thanks to the popularity and bipartisan consensus he gained in two consecutive local elections, the mayor of Turkey’s largest city was, until yesterday, the most likely figure to challenge Erdogan for leadership.
Although the arrest of political opponents in Turkey has become countless over the years, Imamoglu’s arrest certainly marks a turning point not only politically but also economically, as evidenced by the immediate market reactions and the depreciation of the lira.
