Europe Awaits Trump
United States 2024, Trump and Europe
Europe Awaits Trump: The imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House poses old and new challenges for Europe, and there are already those betting on its contagious effects. American media have been repeating for several days that the return of Donald Trump will be a stress test for U.S. democracy.
And as for European democracy, four years ago when Joe Biden spoke about America’s return to the global stage, many in the Old Continent decided to archive the first term of this businessman as a deviation. Today, Trump’s decisive victory among the electorate shows how hasty that judgment was. Politico wrote about this: ‘The Trump show is starting again, and Europe cannot look away.’
European policymakers have spent months preparing for the possible return of Trump, but the truth is no one knows what to expect and therefore how to respond. Trump’s victory will inevitably impact all areas of EU policy, from the tariffs he promised to impose on every item entering the United States to drug prices, the green transition, and regulations on artificial intelligence. Not to mention more critical issues like defending the continent against foreign threats and Ukraine against Russian aggression.
But what is most concerning are the consequences another four years of Trump in the White House could have on the stability of Europe’s architecture, which has already been under considerable internal pressure. In 2016, when Trump first entered the White House, some analysts noted that the baton of liberal democracy had slipped from Angela Merkel, then the most credible leader in the West.
Eight years later, as Trump prepares for a return darker and more vengeful than before, not only has Merkel left the scene, but her legacy, as the latest from Berlin shows, is at risk.
Strengthening the Ranks
It is no secret that Trump’s return is happening just as Europe finds itself in a very fragile position.
Less than 24 hours after the election of this businessman, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who was hosting an informal meeting of the European Political Community at the time, was busy opening bottles of champagne while the German government was collapsing.
Vivid images of changing times: even on this side of the Atlantic, right-wing populists are on the rise.
But despite grappling with their internal problems, France and Germany have tried to show a united front. ‘We will work for a more united, stronger, and more independent Europe,’ said Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, and Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany, who has not officially congratulated the new American leader, has called on the 27 countries to act unitedly—a call that hopefully will be accompanied by practical actions.
We hope not to witness a repeat of what happened between 2016 and 2020, namely the scattered and harmful trips of European leaders to meet Donald Trump for special requests for this or that product at the expense and detriment of neighbors.
Should the European Union Become Carnivorous?
Even Mario Draghi from Budapest, the former president of the European Central Bank and author of the competitiveness report, warns that the European Union must negotiate with Trump with a united spirit and emphasizes that what the other 27 countries cannot do is delay decisions.
This is true for both trade and political relations as well as defense issues. In fact, Trump’s victory means that Europe can no longer rely on the United States for its defense and security.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has bluntly stated that Europe needs to grow and believe in its own capabilities. He announced that the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over, and he is not the only one calling for more action from European leaders to defend themselves. From the Hungarian capital, Macron declared that the world is made up of carnivores and herbivores.
If we decide to remain herbivores, the carnivores will eat us. We are at a historic and decisive moment for Europeans.
Do we want to read a story written by others like Putin, the U.S. elections, or China’s decisions, or do we want to write history ourselves? France has long been moving towards strategic self-reliance, but many EU countries are skeptical of anything that might weaken their ties with Washington.
Conflicting Sovereignties
The impact of a second Trump presidency on European solidarity could be as damaging as its effects on trade and international relations.
Trump won by linking economic concerns with some key issues shared by populists and sovereignty advocates worldwide, including immigration, climate change, and LGBTQ minority rights.
It was no coincidence that Hungarian Prime Minister Orban made passionate and positive remarks about the newly elected president, describing it as the greatest revenge in American history. ‘Congratulations to President Trump for his huge victory, a victory that was desperately needed for the world.’ Additionally, according to Maximilian Krah, a politician from the Alternative for Germany party and a member of the European Parliament, Donald Trump will free us for the next few years from the war in Ukraine, the European Green Deal, and the Digital Services Act.
European populist parties align with the big businessman in their anti-system stance, rejection of elites, and disrespect for international institutions. However, in reality, their enthusiasm for success, which they hope will be mirrored in Europe, is based on a paradox. Sophie Pornschlegel from the Jacques Delors Europe think tank warns that his positions are in no way aligned with our European interests.
Trump is not an ally of Europe but an enemy of transatlantic relations. On Wednesday, the French newspaper Le Monde headlined its editorial ‘The End of an American World.’ However, some hope that the new American world will also reach Europe.
