Fact-checking the Claim of Liquidity Reduction in Raisi’s Government
According to Irangate, Ebrahim Raisi’s government has cited the negative growth of liquidity after 9 years as one of its achievements in the year since it began its activities. But how true is this claim?
The weak performance of Ebrahim Raisi’s government in the year since it began has forced state media to construct a resume. These media outlets continue to use fabricated statistics and deceive the general public to elevate Raisi’s government while criticizing Rouhani’s government. However, these media have gone so far as to even question the official statistics of the government.
The Illusion of Liquidity Reduction in Raisi’s Government
Since the start of the thirteenth government, the IRNA news agency has consistently tried to portray the economic performance of Raisi’s cabinet positively. Now, on the first anniversary of Raisi’s government taking office, in a report titled ‘Part of the Thirteenth Government’s Record One Year After Establishment,’ it has addressed some of the seemingly positive performances of the government. Despite many issues with this report, especially its economic statements, one of the mentioned points is particularly surprising. IRNA in this report has named the negative growth of liquidity after 9 years as one of the positive actions of the government’s economic team. But what is the reality? A quick look at the monthly reports of the Central Bank shows that not only has liquidity growth not been negative in the thirteenth government, but it has also reached one of the highest figures in the history of Iran’s economy. Ebrahim Raisi started his role as the head of Iran’s government on August 3, 2021. According to the Central Bank, liquidity in Iran’s economy at the end of June that year was 3,705 trillion tomans. However, this figure reached 5,104 trillion tomans by the end of June 2022, meaning the volume of liquidity in Iran’s economy grew by 377% over this year. The chart below shows the trend of liquidity changes from June 2020 to June 2021.
Liquidity Reduction in April Was an Achievement of the Government
On the other hand, liquidity growth was only negative in April 2022, which is neither a reliable achievement nor an unusual occurrence. According to available statistics, in the past 16 years, liquidity growth in April has been negative five times between 2006 and 2009 and also in 2013, none of which were sustainable nor did they control the runaway inflation of Iran’s economy. Even in April 2021, liquidity growth was only about 0.4%. Overall, a review of monthly liquidity statistics shows that liquidity growth in April each year has recorded its lowest level, and this issue is unrelated to the performance of different governments. The chart below shows the monthly liquidity growth from June 2020 to June 2021.
The Government’s Data Fabrication Never Ends
It is unclear with what logic the government refers to the negative growth of liquidity as one of its achievements. Of course, the issue does not end here. Raisi’s government has admitted that part of its budget deficit has been resolved through borrowing from state-owned companies. On the other hand, a review of the Central Bank’s report shows that the amount of borrowing by the government and state-owned companies from the banking network has increased by 45% in the past year. This is while many monetary and banking experts have warned that this government action will lead to controlled liquidity growth in the current situation and an explosion of liquidity and inflation in the future. In other words, the government has postponed the growth of liquidity to the future for the sake of data fabrication and controlling current liquidity. Perhaps it would be better for the government to strengthen its economic performance instead of constructing resumes and attempting to deceive the public, so that improvements in conditions are reflected not in state media but within the society itself. Surely, in this way, the popularity of the ‘Leader of the Deprived’ will also be maintained, and the government will not need lies for its stability.
