France in a Tough Situation

France in a deadlock situation

Extreme right party halted

In the French parliamentary elections, the left-wing coalition ‘People’s Front’ unexpectedly took the lead, contrary to all expectations, putting France in a deadlock situation.

The Macron group came in second place, surpassing the National Rally and The Republicans. However, none of these three political blocs could secure an absolute majority, contrary to predictions that the extreme right party would win.

The left-wing coalition chose the name ‘People’s Front’ inspired by a coalition that prevented the victory of the far-right movement in French elections around a hundred years ago.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, one of the left-wing leaders, declared in his first speech after the elections that the French people rejected the worst solution, referring to the extreme right party.

French voters cast their votes, resulting in a fragmented National Assembly without a clear majority. Based on preliminary results, one thing is certain: The National Rally of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella not only did not achieve an absolute majority but are currently in third place. Meanwhile, the united left in the new People’s Front NFP gained a relative majority of seats.

These events bring a periodic uncertainty to France that has no equivalent in the history of the Fifth Republic and is more reminiscent of the turmoil of the Fourth Republic from 1946 to 1958, when 24 governments succeeded each other in just 13 years.

What is certain is that President Macron cannot dissolve the parliament in the next twelve months, so he must seek a solution within this National Assembly.

Thus, certainly, to find a majority that will set aside national division, a very narrow and challenging path must be followed.

Because this majority, to be significant, must hold all or nearly all other parties within itself, but also because the new popular front campaign has focused to some extent on the failures of Macronism and the threat posed by the rise of far-right extremism.

Now, what will happen?

As the full count is completed, power is shifting from Élysée to the parliament, as is the case in other European democracies. The field must be prepared for forming a majority and a capable executive who can govern.

On the morning of April 8, Gabriel Attal presented his resignation as Prime Minister and remains only to deal with current affairs in his position.

Among the statements of the leaders of the coalition forces against far-right extremism, different positions emerge. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the French party France Insoumise, remains uncompromising. He leans towards an initial project of the Popular Front coalition with the centrist Macron, supported by Olivier Faure of the Socialists, instead of forming a government coalition. Meanwhile, Raphaël Glucksmann from the Place Publique movement calls for a mature approach to finding a way out of the current situation.

The issue is not only who is willing to become the prime minister but also who is ready to lead themselves at the head of such a heterogeneous and complex coalition.

Currently, Elise is trying to bide her time, waiting for the commotion to reveal itself. She is studying the hypothesis that the visible divides, even before the elections, could push the new Popular Front towards divergence.

In that case, the path is being explored for a large left-right coalition that embraces socialists, centrists, and runaway republicans.

Valérie Gauz from Radio France International analyzes that while this option may seem feasible on paper, in reality, constructing it politically will be challenging.

Macron is the ultimate winner of the gamble.

In the end, this gamble paid off for Emmanuel Macron by blocking the path towards the National Assembly for Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, even if his camp is damaged and the issue of governance is still unresolved.

The second round of parliamentary elections in France brought a historic victory for the New People’s Front (NFP), a coalition of left-wing parties with 182 seats, followed by the Ensemble coalition, a liberal political coalition in France created by Emmanuel Macron, with 168 parliament members in second place, and the far-right with 143 seats, once again being the main opposition.

While we have started to question the French government’s ability to govern and maintain balance in the past few hours, the news of the day is still the surprising defeat of the national bloc, made possible by unprecedented resistance and participation agreements among voters.

Marine Le Pen referred to this, saying two years ago we only had seven parliament members.

Tonight, we are the largest party in France in terms of the number of representatives. It is true that in the past, we had 88 in the parliament, and now with 143, we have more representatives than any other party because the Macronists and the New People’s Front are in a coalition, but it is not enough to govern.

After the announcement of the election results on Monday, even Europe breathed a sigh of relief. Paris will remain an active champion in the political scene of the Union, while the entry of the national movement created a gap that was impossible to fill.

Interim government

It is unlikely that any government emerging from possible common combinations will remain stable for a long period.

The approval of the budget law in the fall will be the first potential critical moment for France after missing targets earlier in the year due to demands to reduce its budget deficit.

Among the many issues that the left-liberal and right coalition will never agree on, fiscal policy is likely at the top of the list.

Meanwhile, Bardella, who had become discouraged after seeing the possibility of gaining a majority in parliament and leading the country, tried to cheer up his supporters by saying that the old world has fallen and nothing can stop people who have regained hope.

Marine Le Pen also repeated this, saying the tide is rising, although it hasn’t gone up high enough yet, it continues to grow.

Our victory has only been delayed. On the other hand, despite not achieving the goal, the national unity has seen a significant increase in the number of parliamentary representatives. Now we have to see how long the Republican barrier can keep them out of power.

Urban Art Painting Movement

Europe is taking a breather, but only halfway through. Some of the boldest proposals by President Macron that affect French stability exist, from a common defense loan for Europe to doubling the community budget to establishing French forces to train Kiev forces.

The European Union is facing a double paralysis threat as both France and Germany, traditionally the driving forces of the 27-member bloc, see themselves in a weak position.

While Macron needs to settle scores at home, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz saw his party defeated in the European elections and is working to maintain the ‘traffic light’ coalition. This coalition refers to the symbolic colors of these parties: red for Social Democrats, yellow for Free Democrats, and green for Greens.

In continental Europe, although far-right parties still have a long way to go in terms of gaining control, they are on the rise. Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary, and the President of the European Union, is trying to strengthen them. This news did not receive much attention on Monday evening due to protests that arose initially as a result of surveys and then the election results. However, Orban announced in his speech that the National Social Party is part of a new parliamentary group created by the Hungarian Prime Minister, which is called the Homeland Lovers for Europe group. It includes the Nordic League party led by Matteo Salvini, and far-right parties from Spain, Portugal, and Flanders, covering a large area of France, Belgium, and southern Netherlands.

Therefore, this group, after the center-right party of the European People and the center-left socialists, could become the third largest party in the European Parliament and surpass the Renew Europe Party.

Orban said that starting tomorrow, our members in the European Parliament will fully play their role in a large group that will impact the power balance in Europe, to prevent drowning in environmentalist immigration and the confiscation of our sovereignty.

Ultimately, what is called the knight’s move in chess brought a result that Emmanuel Macron was fond of, preventing excessive pursuit of absolute majority and having the right to govern France.

Given the country’s division, the significant growth of Marine Le Pen’s party is not much. In fact, the more important issue in France today is the collapse of the political framework that will consign the Fifth Republic party system to history and lead to the formation of a national assembly dominated by two opposing factions, the national social front and the left front, with the center of the former majority weak presidency unable to present its own cards.

In response to those in France and abroad who hastily assessed Macron’s decision to dissolve the parliament and hold early elections as impulsive and opportunistic, it is worth noting a few key points. In fact, President Macron had lost his majority just a few days after his re-election in 2022, and his government was forced to navigate between confidence votes and increasing street hostilities.

The European elections, which indicated the inevitable advance of the far-right, predicted Marine Le Pen as the clear winner in 2027 and put the French President and France in a weak position compared to European partners. Therefore, Macron decided to explode the seat of conditional legislation instead of ensuring the continuity of an unknown political landscape and the increasing anger of the almost unanimous French.

The gamble made by the left-wing, claiming to lead the country with an expensive and tough social program, was a gamble because the extent of the democratic and republican transformations that accompanied the exciting Monday result was immeasurable.

Fear of the French far-right mobilized public opinion to the extent that a record participation rate was recorded, and an unexpected result occurred.

The fear of the far-right forced the antagonistic and divided left to unite, instilling a very high sense of responsibility in all parties, especially in the radical left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and multiplied the will of hundreds of candidates to vote for the best candidate in the second round against the National Rally candidate.

Ultimately, the far-right remains a powerful negative threat to the stability and cohesion of the country, but it is no longer in a position to govern.

Certainly, the strategy and goal for the coming months for the National Rally party is clear, but for Marine Le Pen, this path may be permanently blocked. In any case, what is certain is that France is facing a complicated two years ahead, a crisis that may likely be accompanied by unrest and the risk of an economic shock.