Geneva: Fears and Hopes
Geneva: Fears and Hopes
Finally, after the meeting between Majid Takht-Ravanchi and Kazem Gharibabadi with Enrique Mora, Iran’s talks with the three European members of the JCPOA – Germany, France, and the United Kingdom – were held at the deputy foreign minister level on Friday afternoon, Geneva time. In this regard, Gharibabadi, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, announced the meeting with representatives of Germany, France, and the UK and stated that, according to the agreement, diplomatic talks are set to continue in the near future.
The Deputy of the Foreign Policy Apparatus also clarified that another round of frank talks with the political directors of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom was held. In these talks, recent bilateral, regional, and international developments, especially issues related to nuclear matters and the lifting of sanctions, were reviewed and assessed. According to Gharibabadi, we are strongly committed to pursuing the interests of our people, and our preference is the path of dialogue and interaction. It was agreed that diplomatic talks will continue in the near future.
Simultaneously with Gharibabadi’s remarks about the content of the meeting with representatives from Berlin, Paris, and London, The Guardian newspaper also reported that the purpose of Iran’s negotiations with the European troika in Geneva was to examine whether it is possible to work on Iran’s proposal or not. Another position was also discussed, which involves efforts to limit military cooperation between Iran and Russia. According to Entekhab, this media outlet added that in exchange, the European Union might try to lift some economic sanctions, but the timeline is short before Trump comes to power. However, Iran has emphasized that it has not provided any ballistic missiles to Russia, but these statements have not been accepted by the United States.
After the Geneva talks, which were held behind closed doors, representatives of each party issued messages on social media stating that the consultations focused on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, and other regional issues. Laurence Norman also wrote on his personal page on the social network X about the recent talks between Iran and European countries in Geneva, stating that Iran told the Europeans that no unilateral conciliatory actions would be taken by us before Trump’s official start of work. They have not made this public but have implicitly indicated that limiting the accumulation of uranium reserves with 60% purity as a result of consultations with Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, will no longer occur.
The Wall Street Journal reporter continued in his message, claiming that data from various sources in cyberspace about the tone of these consultations are somewhat different. Some have emphasized Iran’s willingness to continue talks, considering Donald Trump’s approach to Iran after his inauguration on January 20. In this context, it is interesting that the negotiations of the European troika – Germany, France, and the United Kingdom – continued after the resolutions of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Negotiation in Geneva: Crisis in Syria
On the other hand, some domestic media have approached the start of meetings between Tehran’s representatives and Europeans from a different perspective, linking the Geneva talks to recent developments in Syria.
As Kayhan wrote in its Saturday article, the design of the Aleppo war is one of those things that the West has come to help the Zionists with. That is, when our friends in Iran were preparing for negotiations with the West to approach them with friendship and reconciliation, they were busy designing Plan B, which is the revival of Takfiri terrorists in Syria. Negotiation is the exact opposite of war and tension. When the opponent is at war, and friends are negotiating in the middle of it, it shows the peak of the enemy’s fox-like nature.
In such an atmosphere, talking about negotiation will yield no achievement for us other than breaking unity. Why? Because in the negotiation atmosphere, from the perspective of some of these friends, one should neither say ‘Death to Israel,’ nor help allies, nor even conduct missile tests, or even write on a missile that ‘Israel is a cancerous tumor.’
In the midst of the talks between Iranian and European representatives in Geneva, besides the developments in Syria, some other events can also be the subject of discussion and influence, such as the impact of installing new centrifuges in the country’s nuclear facilities on the future of the Geneva negotiations.
In this regard, the U.S. State Department, in response to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s claim about the installation of thousands of new centrifuges in Iran, described it as a continuation of the path of escalating tension in contrast to cooperation with the Agency. According to ISNA, international media reported on Friday that the UN nuclear watchdog announced that Iran will begin enriching uranium with thousands of advanced centrifuges at its two main nuclear facilities in Fordow and Natanz, which will increase tensions over Tehran’s nuclear program.
According to a report that the French news agency claims to have seen, the International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed that Iran has installed about six thousand new centrifuges for uranium enrichment.
According to this report, Iran had informed the Agency of its intention to gas about six thousand centrifuges at its sites in Fordow and Natanz for uranium enrichment up to five percent, which is above the 3.67 percent limit that Tehran had agreed to in 2015.
After the publication of this report, the U.S. State Department, in a statement provided to the Associated Press, claimed that it is deeply concerned about Iran’s decision to choose the path of continued escalation in contrast to cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The statement further claimed that Iran’s continued production and accumulation of 60% enriched uranium has no credible civilian justification.
On the other hand, Abbas Araghchi, the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran, also announced in a meeting with José Manuel Albares Bueno, the Foreign Minister of Spain, that in response to the European countries’ action in passing a resolution against Iran in the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, several thousand advanced Iranian centrifuges will be put into operation. He also noted in a separate meeting, referring to the Friday meeting of Iranian officials and the European troika in Geneva, which was centered on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions, that the meeting between Iranian and European negotiators is essentially a brainstorming session to see if there is really a way out of the current situation.
Considering what has been said, Mohammad Javad Jamali Nobandegani, in a conversation with Shargh, analyzes the meetings held in Geneva from two general perspectives. First, he does not necessarily interpret the news about the continuation of negotiations and talks with European parties in Geneva or anywhere else as initial agreements. From the perspective of this former parliament member, one should not have an optimistic view or make a 100% judgment about the outcome of negotiations with European parties from now on.
Because, according to the senior international affairs analyst, the Geneva talks are currently in the stage of initial assessments of the parties from each other and have not yet entered the stage of negotiations. With this understanding, the senior foreign policy commentator reminds that one should not define a positive or negative path and track for the negotiations with some optimistic analyses and hasty judgments. However, Nobandegani does not rule out the possibility that negotiations like those held in Geneva could become time-consuming, complex, and even exhausting, similar to previous rounds, which may not lead to tangible outcomes in the short term.
The more important point that the member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Tenth Parliament addresses is related to the intensification of Europe’s diplomatic activities alongside the re-emergence of Donald Trump in the White House. By raising this issue, Nobandegani acknowledges that whatever the result of the Geneva negotiations and talks between Iranian parties and Europe, it will not be operational without the final opinion of the Americans. For this reason, the former parliament member emphasizes this key point that the final and main negotiations will be conducted after Donald Trump’s administration takes office and with Washington’s direct opinion with Tehran, because Europeans do not have the necessary political and diplomatic independence to negotiate and agree with Tehran. As the senior international affairs analyst confirms his statement by pointing to the unsuccessful efforts of Europeans during the JCPOA and after Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement.
Another point that is important from Nobandegani’s perspective is related to regional developments from Palestine and Lebanon to the recent unrest in Syria, and he reminds that this series of developments in the Middle East will also practically become pressure levers for Western parties to negotiate with Iran. The goal is to not only address the nuclear issue but also to engage with Iran on regional influence and defense capabilities, and to conduct negotiations with Tehran in this regard. However, the more critical topic that the former parliament member believes can be decisive is related to Iran’s recent action to install new centrifuges after the resolution in the Board of Governors of the Agency, because the member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Tenth Parliament emphasizes and clarifies that this action will act as a balancing measure that can provide a stronger hand for the Iranian negotiating team both against Europe and against the United States.
Moreover, Nobandegani, in a not-so-optimistic analysis, warns of a key point that if the talks with Western parties do not reach a conclusion and the snapback mechanism is likely to be activated, certainly changing the nuclear doctrine and Iran’s withdrawal from the NPT can change all equations.
For this reason, the former parliament member warns in advance that a path should not be taken for negotiations that would ultimately force Iran to change its nuclear doctrine and withdraw from the NPT.
Because from Nobandegani’s perspective, neither of these two issues is a diplomatic bluff by Tehran, and certainly, if the snapback mechanism is activated, Tehran will implement these two actions. Given the series of warnings provided, the senior international affairs analyst considers the coming to power of Masoud Pezeshkian’s government and the positive and forward-looking rhetoric of the fourteenth government for de-escalation as a unique opportunity for Europe and the United States that should not be missed.
Moreover, the former parliament member does not positively assess some internal obstructions, oppositions, and protests in the path of the Pezeshkian government negotiations by some political currents and a range of media in the country.
Because, according to Nobandegani, both Iran’s situation and the region’s situation, as well as international developments, have become highly fluid and simultaneously sensitive, and therefore, there should be no pause in the path of dialogue, negotiation, and de-escalation.
