Geopolitical Challenges of the Middle East
The geopolitical challenges of the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of Israel’s attack on Iran, represent a significant development in the complex dynamics of the region. This stance, which seemingly contradicts the gradual rapprochement between Riyadh and Tel Aviv in recent years, requires thorough and comprehensive analysis. In this report, we examine the various dimensions of this strategic decision by Saudi Arabia.
Regional Geopolitical Dynamics
The Middle East has always been a stage for complex and sometimes contradictory interactions among regional powers. Saudi Arabia, as one of the key players in this region, has adopted a multifaceted strategy in recent years.
On one hand, the country seeks to strengthen its position as the leader of the Arab and Islamic world, while on the other hand, it aims to play a constructive role in regional dynamics. In this context, relations with Israel and Iran form two main axes of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy.
Contradictions in the Positions of Arab Countries
The disclosure of the content of secret meetings between Arab officials and the U.S. Secretary of State after the events of October 7, 2023, reveals hidden complexities in the foreign policies of Arab countries.
While these countries outwardly defend Palestinian rights, behind closed doors, they have taken a completely different stance.
For example, Saudi officials have described Hamas in secret meetings as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood and a terrorist group that poses a threat not only to Israel but also to Arab leaders.
This duality in positions indicates a deep gap between the declared and actual policies of Arab countries.
Revelations from Bob Woodward’s book show that in an initial meeting with Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, after the events of October 7, Mohammed bin Salman merely wished for the problems to disappear.
In the same meeting, he emphasized that the process of normalizing relations with Israel is not dead, but there is currently no possibility of progress.
This cautious stance was in line with the reactions of other Arab leaders. For example, the Egyptian president focused only on maintaining the 1979 peace agreement and preventing the displacement of Palestinians to Egypt.
Evolution in Saudi-Israel Relations
In past decades, Saudi-Israel relations have been accompanied by ideological and political tensions.
However, the emergence of common threats, especially what both parties refer to as the danger of expanding Iranian influence, has paved the way for a gradual convergence between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.
This convergence, although not yet reaching the level of formal and public relations, is ongoing in the form of covert intelligence and security cooperation.
Domestic Considerations and Public Opinion
One of the most important factors affecting Saudi foreign policy is domestic considerations and public opinion. Like many Arab societies, the Saudi public does not have a positive view of Israel, and the Palestinian issue remains one of the main concerns of the people in this country.
Therefore, the Saudi government is compelled to consider these sensitivities in its positions.
The condemnation of Israel’s attack on Iran and also the support for the establishment of a Palestinian state can be analyzed within this framework.
Vision 2030 and Saudi Arabia’s International Image
Saudi Arabia’s social and economic reform program, known as Vision 2030, is the main strategy of Mohammed bin Salman for the future of the country.
In a January 2024 meeting in Al-Ula, the Saudi Crown Prince explicitly stated his willingness to immediately advance the normalization of relations with Israel in line with achieving the goals of Vision 2030.
This program, designed to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on oil, requires attracting foreign investment and extensive international cooperation.
However, regional tensions and especially the conflicts after October 7, 2023, have created serious challenges for advancing this program.
In initial meetings following these events, Mohammed bin Salman called for the disappearance of problems and emphasized that although the normalization process with Israel has not stopped, there is currently no possibility of progress. This stance indicates that Saudi leaders are well aware of the impact of regional developments on their developmental goals.
In pursuit of Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is trying to present a moderate and responsible image of itself on the global stage. This approach has led the country to propose two essential preconditions for normalizing relations with Israel: establishing calm in Gaza and outlining a clear path toward the formation of a Palestinian state. These conditions show that Saudi Arabia cannot and does not want to be indifferent to regional issues in its pursuit of developmental goals.
Regional Role and International Standing
Saudi Arabia is striving to enhance its role in regional and international dynamics. Once known solely as an oil power, the country now seeks to play a more active role in resolving regional conflicts. The stance on Israel’s attack on Iran can be assessed within this broader strategy.
Outlook on Normalization of Relations
The debate over the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is one of the central topics in recent Middle Eastern developments. Saudi Arabia’s reaction to the extensive Israeli air force attacks on Iranian military facilities highlights the complexity of the evolving relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.
In a cautious statement, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the attack on Iranian soil and called for a halt to regional tensions. The absence of a direct reference to Israel in this statement indicates a shift in Riyadh’s diplomatic approach compared to the past decade.
In the context of regional balance of power policy, Saudi Arabia has adopted a dual approach.
While the country assisted Tel Aviv during Iran’s attack on Israel, we have recently witnessed a rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran.
The meeting of Iran’s new Foreign Minister with Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh indicates Iran’s efforts to draw closer to Arab countries and isolate Israel.
Mohammed bin Salman’s role is important in this context. The young and forward-looking Saudi Crown Prince has a different approach to the Palestinian issue compared to his predecessors. According to informed sources, he told Antony Blinken in January that he personally places less importance on the Palestinian issue.
Bin Salman’s plan to modernize Saudi Arabia and reduce its dependence on oil has raised hopes for the normalization of relations with Israel.
However, Saudi Arabia has officially conditioned any normalization agreement with Israel on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Israeli experts warn that Saudi Arabia’s focus on rapprochement with Iran could weaken an alliance that has the potential to ensure long-term stability in the region. Ultimately, Saudi Arabia stands at a historic crossroads.
According to Saudi experts and bin Salman’s advisors, cooperation with Israel could bring significant economic, security, and technological opportunities to Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia’s final decision regarding relations with Israel will not only impact bilateral relations but also influence the dynamics of the entire Middle East region.
Conclusion
Saudi Arabia’s condemnation of Israel’s attack on Iran should be analyzed within the framework of the country’s broader strategy in the region and on the international stage. This stance reflects the complexities of foreign policy in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia’s efforts to maintain a balance between conflicting interests.
In the current situation, Saudi Arabia is striving to maintain its position as a regional power while paving the way for a more constructive role in international dynamics.
Although this approach may face challenges in the short term, it could ultimately serve to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s position in the international system.
