Great Fears Against Small Hopes

Masoud Pezeshkian’s government might be considered one of the most unfortunate governments since the revolution.

In the short time since this government began its work, many turning points and crises have been passed, and after each event, numerous analyses regarding the government’s position in society have been presented.

The election with 50% participation has further increased doubts about the status of the fourteenth government in society.

Despite the fact that in the realm of polling institutions, whispers of some surveys were heard in this short period, there was a reservation from various centers regarding the public release of these data.

The national survey by the Center for Public Opinion Research can be considered the first survey regarding the performance of the fourteenth government that has been publicly released, presenting the government’s image among different groups in the public sphere.

The main findings of this survey might be summarized in two fundamental themes: first, a fluid and fragile social capital, and second, the lack of observable outcomes.

One of the most important findings of the Center for Public Opinion Research survey is the confirmation of various analyses regarding the fluid and fragile social capital of the fourteenth government.

These results indicate that despite Pezeshkian’s electoral victory, his government’s social capital is very fragile and maintaining it requires serious effort. Each of the previous governments had a strong initial social base that, due to the government’s discourse or the personal popularity of the president, provided the government with time to implement policies and gain social acceptance in the face of changes.

The results of various surveys and social analyses show that this capital is less in the fourteenth government, and therefore, Masoud Pezeshkian’s social base in the elections has the capacity to quickly become disillusioned and regret their vote.

Perhaps the clear point of this survey for the fourteenth government is the percentage of moderate or average views in all propositions and questions.

This high percentage might indicate that a part of society has not yet made a definitive decision regarding their evaluation of the government’s performance and is waiting for the fulfillment of promises announced by government officials and the president.

It should be noted that this survey was conducted before the recent economic turbulence and fluctuations in the dollar’s value.

Regarding the first point, another finding of this survey is the lack of observable and specific outcomes from the government’s performance and the absence of hope for change in society.

It seems that a large part of society, in the short term after the government started working, has not yet observed tangible changes in the country’s situation, particularly witnessing worsening economic conditions and a decline in the quality of life.

The weakness of hope for change targets one of the most fundamental prerequisites for success in policymaking. Implementing any change or policy requires the society’s cooperation with that policy and public persuasion to accept the possibility of achieving the predicted results of that policy.

The weakness of hope for change seriously complicates access to this cooperation. The results of the survey demonstrate a serious weakness of this indicator in Iranian society.

Overall, it can be said that the survey reveals significant fear and fragile hope for the fourteenth government.

Fear of the absence of tangible policy outcomes, especially in the economic arena, and fragile hope among groups in society still waiting for the government’s promises to materialize.

Despite this, the political and economic turmoil in recent years shows that large sections of Iranian society have little patience in dealing with governments and need more than promises and program presentations to remain hopeful about the future. Something that can change their daily life conditions and economic turbulence towards a desirable state.