Vulnerable in Eastern Iran Amid Boisterous Diplomacy and Bitter Realities
Vulnerable in Eastern Iran Amid Boisterous Diplomacy and Bitter Realities
According to the Iran Gate News Agency, amidst the fast-paced developments in the Middle East and the increasing likelihood of broader conflicts between Iran and Israel, serious questions have arisen about the depth and durability of the Islamic Republic’s strategic alliances with Eastern powers such as Russia and China.
Despite Tehran’s significant political investment in the ‘Look East’ policy, signs of rifts and mutual distrust in relations with Moscow and Beijing are apparent.
The recent conversation between Iran’s president and Tucker Carlson, along with the stances of domestic media and officials, all indicate instability in Iran’s security and strategic equations.
The following analytical report examines various aspects of this issue, from the failure to secure military support from Russia to the limitations of relations with China, and ultimately the prospect of the Islamic Republic’s geopolitical isolation in a tense and unstable region.
The Crisis of Iran’s Strategic Alliances: Russia’s Silence and Distrust of China
During the recent conversation between Tucker Carlson, a well-known conservative American host, and Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s new president, a key question was raised: Can Iran count on support from China or Russia if tensions with the United States or Israel escalate?
Pezeshkian’s vague and indirect response essentially reflected the growing doubts in the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy regarding the level of commitment from these two Eastern strategic partners.
Although Tehran has so far refrained from officially criticizing Beijing and Moscow for their reluctance to provide military support during the twelve-day war with Israel in June, signs of dissatisfaction are visible in the country’s political and media landscape.
Some analysts and domestic news agencies have spoken of Iran’s strategic loneliness in the face of Israeli attacks and the indifference of Eastern allies.
The ‘Look East’ Strategy Under Scrutiny
Over the past years, the leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has established a strategy known as ‘Look East,’ aimed at countering Western economic and political pressures by deepening relations with Eastern powers like China and Russia.
Within this framework, Iran joined regional blocs such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS group, and expanded its military cooperation with Moscow, including sending Iranian drones to Russia for use in the Ukraine war.
However, initial hopes for receiving fighter jets and air defense systems in exchange for this assistance turned into serious doubts due to Russia’s refusal to deliver such equipment. Russia’s wartime status in Ukraine has limited Moscow’s military resources and sidelined potential commitments to Iran.
Tehran and Moscow’s Relationship: An Asymmetric Partnership
In Iran, there are growing concerns that the country may merely be seen as a bargaining tool in Russia’s interactions with the West, especially the United States.
At the height of the conflicts with Israel, Vladimir Putin explicitly stated that the recent agreement between Moscow and Tehran contains no mutual defense clauses, and Iran has not officially requested military assistance.
To temper expectations, the state-run Sputnik news agency, citing Russian experts, reported that Moscow will not take sides in a war between Iran and Israel, as it maintains active diplomatic relations with both parties.
This neutral stance not only angered reformist factions but also provoked conservative media and entities affiliated with Iran’s governing bodies.
Amid the war, the conservative newspaper Farhikhtegan reported that Abbas Araghchi, a senior Iranian diplomat, conveyed the Islamic Republic’s leadership’s dissatisfaction to the Kremlin during a meeting with Russian officials, although this account was later described as incomplete and unreliable by the same media.
Additionally, the hardline newspaper Javan, referencing a meeting between Larijani and Putin, wrote that Russia and China should pay a higher price to counter U.S. dominance. Statements from some former diplomats and parliament members, like Nematollah Izadi and Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, also indicate that distrust of the Kremlin is growing even among the regime’s political elites.
Beijing: An Economic, Not Military, Partner
With the decline in the prospect of military support from Russia, Tehran’s focus has once again shifted to Beijing, a country that is Iran’s largest economic partner and oil buyer, but China’s role is also accompanied by similar doubts.
Shortly after the end of the war, a report from Middle East Eye claimed that China had delivered new air defense systems to Iran, but this news was quickly denied by the Chinese embassy in Tel Aviv.
Iranian media, publishing analyses, described Beijing as a ‘half-hearted friend’ and emphasized that mere economic relations cannot replace a strategic alliance in times of crisis.
Izadi, a former Iranian ambassador to Russia, also noted in an interview with the Jamaran website that Tehran-Beijing relations have remained primarily economic, with no security commitments beyond diplomatic statements.
The Challenge of Geopolitical Isolation
While the axis of resistance has weakened on several fronts over the past year, particularly in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, Iran’s need for effective allies is felt more than ever. Israel’s air superiority during recent conflicts clearly demonstrated that Tehran cannot alone counter the West’s military technological superiority.
In such circumstances, some media outlets and analysts have warned about Iran’s geopolitical isolation.
The Tasnim News Agency, citing an unnamed military official, clarified that despite domestic efforts to manufacture equipment, Iran remains deprived of access to advanced technology and cooperation with developed countries due to sanctions.
Meanwhile, reports of the localization of Iranian drone production on Russian soil have emerged, indicating that Moscow is reducing its reliance on direct equipment imports from Iran. This development could further weaken Iran’s strategic position in Russia’s military equations.
Conclusion: Instability in the Structure of Eastern Alliances
Iran finds itself in a complex and multilayered situation. Although economic relations with China and Russia continue, and their political support in institutions like the UN Security Council is highly important for Tehran, the lack of clear military support in recent crises has called into question the legitimacy and effectiveness of the ‘Look East’ policy.
In the absence of security guarantees and with increasing pressures from the West, the Islamic Republic may be forced to reconsider its grand foreign policy strategies, which have so far been based on proximity to Eastern powers but now face serious doubts and challenges.
