Increase in Iran’s Oil Exports Before Trump’s Arrival

Increase in Iran’s oil exports before Trump’s arrival

Increase in Iran’s oil exports before Trump’s arrival

Iran delivered 1,886,000 barrels of oil per day to China in the first half of December, the highest level since 2018. Despite fluctuations in recent months, Iran’s oil exports have revived on the eve of Donald Trump’s administration taking office and the potential re-implementation of the maximum pressure policy against the Islamic Republic.

Iran’s daily oil exports to China in November fell by half a million barrels compared to the end of summer, dropping to about 1,310,000 barrels. However, data provided to Radio Farda by the commodity information company Kpler shows that Iran’s oil deliveries to China surged again in December.

Iran delivered 1,886,000 barrels of oil per day to China in the first half of this month, the highest level since 2018. Oil shipments from Iran to Chinese markets during the mentioned period were 1,713,000 barrels per day. It usually takes two to three weeks for Iranian oil shipments to reach Chinese markets.

Thus, if the loaded shipments are purchased, Iran’s oil deliveries to China in December will exceed 18 million barrels per day. Overall, based on Kpler’s data, Iran has delivered an average of 1,512,000 barrels of oil per day to China in 2024, which is 34% more than last year and double that of 2022.

Iran’s oil exports in 2017, before the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA and imposed oil sanctions against the Islamic Republic, were about 25 million barrels. However, in the last year of Donald Trump’s presidency in 2020, it fell below 340,000 barrels.

With the advent of Joe Biden’s administration, Iran’s oil exports have significantly increased each year.

Iran’s oil exports to Chinese and Syrian markets faced severe turbulence from the beginning of October this year due to the Islamic Republic’s extensive missile attack on Israel and the potential Israeli attack on Iran’s oil facilities. However, in December, Iran’s oil exports to China were finally revived, but deliveries to Syria stopped following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Kpler’s data shows that Iran delivered a total of 185 million barrels of oil to Syria in the first 11 months of this year, averaging 56,000 barrels per day, and no Iranian oil shipments have been delivered to Syria this month. Tanker Trackers, a company active in tracking oil tankers, says the last Iranian tanker with a 750,000-barrel cargo returned to Iranian waters just before reaching the Suez Canal on the morning of Bashar al-Assad’s fall.

Disruptions in Iran’s oil exports in the final months of this year have caused the volume of Iran’s oil on the water to reach 17 million barrels by mid-December, four times that of September before Iran’s missile attack on Israel. However, data from the energy consulting firm Vortexa shows that the total amount of Iran’s oil on the water in its own waters and in East Asia, especially Singapore, is 48 million barrels, which is 12 million barrels more than in October.

In any case, despite the turbulence in Iran’s oil exports over the past few months, Iran has revived exports to China in December. However, it is unclear whether, with the advent of Donald Trump’s administration, Iran will be able to maintain its export levels to this country.

Chinese small and independent refineries, known as teapots, are the only customers of Iranian oil. They purchase Iranian oil through intermediaries and under the guise of oil from Iraq, Oman, the UAE, and especially Malaysia. A significant portion of Iran’s oil revenues is lost in the process of circumventing sanctions and rebranding the oil.

In the budget bill for the next year, the Masoud Pezeshkian government has forecast daily oil exports of 1,850,000 barrels, one-third of which is allocated to the military forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to strengthen defense capabilities, and the rest is allocated to the government, the National Iranian Oil Company, and the National Development Fund.