Iran and Israel’s Ceasefire: An Unclear Outlook Ahead
Iran and Israel’s Ceasefire: An Unclear Outlook Ahead
A week after the end of the clashes between Iran and Israel, mediated by the United States, Saeed Agenji, editor-in-chief of the Iran Gate news agency, examines the consequences of the 12-day bloody battle that brought the Middle East region and the global community to the brink of serious tension.
This fragile ceasefire, imposed on the parties just one day after the United States dropped 14-ton bunker buster bombs on three critical nuclear sites in Iran, has so far remained in place.
However, many issues remain unclear. The extent to which Iran’s nuclear program has been set back is still shrouded in uncertainty.
The likelihood of resuming peace talks between Iran and the United States is unclear, and whether President Donald Trump will be able to use this opportunity to persuade the government of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Hamas group to reach an agreement on a ceasefire and hostage exchange remains unanswered.
We will continue with a review of what remains unknown.
How extensive is the damage to the nuclear facilities?
However, a preliminary assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency indicates that the attacks on the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities, although causing significant damage, have not completely destroyed these centers.
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, stated in an interview that these three nuclear sites in Iran have been seriously damaged in terms of conversion and uranium enrichment capacities, but some parts of them remain intact.
He added that if Iran wishes, it is possible to resume these activities. According to him, a comprehensive assessment can only be achieved if Tehran allows another inspection for international observers.
What is the outlook for relations between Iran and the United States?
After the ceasefire was established, Donald Trump spoke of the possibility of reducing some sanctions and stated that if Iran stops its nuclear activities, the country could become trade-oriented. However, this hopeful atmosphere did not last long and quickly faded.
In his first speech after the ceasefire, Ali Khamenei claimed that Iran had dealt a strong blow to the face of the United States. In response, Trump stated that the Iranian leader must accept that his country has suffered a severe defeat and clarified that currently, there is no consideration for reducing sanctions on the agenda.
U.S. government officials have announced that informal consultations for resuming talks are underway. However, Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, has emphasized that no specific agreement has been reached in this regard.
It is still unclear whether Iran is ready to return to the negotiation table, especially if the United States insists on a complete halt to uranium enrichment, even for peaceful purposes.
Is Iran likely to respond?
Iran’s missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar was interpreted by the White House as a symbolic act aimed at saving face. This attack, which was pre-announced, was easily thwarted.
Nevertheless, Iran’s threats in the cyber warfare arena are still considered serious. Hackers linked to Tehran have targeted banks, defense-related companies, and U.S. oil industries in the past, although they have not yet succeeded in disrupting key infrastructure.
Last week, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a public warning about the increased cyber threats from Iran and urged companies involved in critical infrastructure sectors such as water, energy, and transportation to increase precautionary measures.
Will the ceasefire between Iran and Israel hold?
This peace still seems extremely fragile. Immediately after the attacks, Donald Trump informed Benjamin Netanyahu in a call that he should not expect further military action from the United States.
However, the Israeli Prime Minister clearly stated that if Iran seeks to revive its nuclear program again, his country will launch renewed attacks. This agreement was reached without any specific commitment from Tehran to halt nuclear activities.
Ali Khamenei also claimed in his remarks that these attacks did not cause any serious damage to the nuclear facilities.
Donald Trump, meanwhile, stated that he does not believe Iran is currently seeking to resume its nuclear program.
However, he urged Tehran to allow international inspections, including by the International Atomic Energy Agency or another approved entity.
