Iran on the Brink of Stalemate Sanctions
Iran is on the brink of stalemate sanctions as it faces a wave of popular protests with no end in sight. This time, the protests are being seriously reflected in international media. Reactions from European and American officials to events in Iran have intensified daily and hourly. While Iranian people and politicians have been accustomed to various forms of condemnations, statements, and even sanctions, the way sanctions are being expressed and implemented in recent specific instances differs from the past.
The basis of citizenship protests and their intertwining with various global events, particularly their widespread civic foundation, has taken these protests beyond limited and specific issues such as the protests against the fraud that occurred in 2009.
The consequences of the confrontations, sanctions, and penalties that different countries have adopted and will adopt against Iran differ from past sanctions. With miscalculations in handling recent events, the Iranian regime is entering a path that leads to a dead end, and these new sanctions will indeed create this dead end.
Cutting off the Iranian regime’s political breathing space through civic interaction
One of the most critical developments and changes in recent weeks is the insecurity in Iran for citizens of European and American countries, as well as dual-national Iranians. This significant development can be clearly observed in the new warnings from Western officials about traveling to Iran and, beyond that, in the French government’s request for its citizens to leave Iran. Few fail to understand the relatively obvious reasons behind these decisions by European officials.
European and American governments are deeply concerned about their citizens being taken hostage and imprisoned amidst the political and social turmoil inside Iran and are never willing to take risks in this area.
It should be noted that it has been some time since the new program by the United States, Canada, and over fifty countries worldwide to counter the hostage-taking of citizens and bargaining for their release by hostile governments was initiated. This program, one of the first initiatives of the Biden administration, was actually spearheaded by governments like Canada, which have been involved in such grim interactions with the Chinese government. Now, combating the hostage-taking of citizens and bargaining for them has moved beyond pleasantries and statements.
The United States, in particular, is continuously monitoring the activities of citizens from specific countries, especially countries like Iran, on its soil. On the other hand, it has defined special structures for the protection of its ordinary citizens and security personnel worldwide. The comings and goings and interactions of Western citizens with Iran and Iranians hold great value for Iran. The economic dimensions of tourism and the growth in revenue from tourism are easily understandable.
Beyond that, with the restriction of travel and contact between citizens of other countries and Iranians, many academic contacts and interactions will be limited. Many citizen-centered technical and technological services will disappear, and many cultural exchanges and dialogues will become dreams. This is a significant loss for Iran.
Such developments may seem unbelievable in the current conditions. However, in the context of maximum insecurity in the social and security space for Western citizens and the official warnings and requests to refrain from traveling to Iran and leaving Iranian soil, these developments will be tangible and natural consequences.
While Canada has officially joined the list of countries that have advised their citizens not to travel to Iran, the depth of potential damages from the severance of civic and cultural connections between Iranians and the West should be assessed after a short period. This period will certainly not even be a year.
The Stalemate of Sanctions and Stalemate Sanctions
In the literature and discourse of sanctions, one of the most important aspects is understanding the context of subjugating the target of sanctions. Sanctions, as a tool for implementing government policies, also create a particular condition for their own removal. This specific feature, in fact, provides the groundwork for creating a structure aimed at fulfilling the demands of the governments.
That leverage their special position as governments and countries with the privilege to exert pressure on the opposing side. The consolidation of forces and the alliance of various countries to exert pressure on a single target means an effort to close the avenues that the target country and structure can use to escape pressure and neutralize sanctions.
The new sanctions that the West, particularly Europe, is designing and implementing in response to popular protests in Iran have a different meaning from nuclear sanctions and other similar examples. The type of sanctions imposed is a continuous repetition of security and political structures among the targets, and on the other hand, the will of some European countries to target the financial cycle of Iranian individuals and organizations has a special meaning.
In the current situation, Iran needs diplomatic breathing space and is struggling to continue nuclear negotiations. Apart from this international diplomatic space, Iran also needs economic interaction space. Access to some of the most specialized technologies and services, as well as banking and financial interactions with specific countries, is required in Iran’s current interests and plans. Step by step, the access range of individuals and organizations to banking services, trade relations, and interactions and exchanges is becoming more limited.
These sanctions will create specific dead ends for Iran’s political and military structures in interacting with certain countries that will not easily accept the troubles of facing the consequences of these sanctions.
In this context, it should be noted that Turkey and Qatar are two countries that are unlikely to easily provide the same commercial and economic breathing space to Iranian individuals and organizations as in the past. The key point is also the renewed political alignment of Turkey with Israel. Apart from that, two countries, China, will soon have to decide on the consequences of their commercial companies’ and, more importantly, their security organizations’ and companies’ interactions with Iran. Past transparent experiences show that the Chinese do not easily incur costs in this area.
Apart from the specific type of sanctions, the context in which sanctions are formed is also of great importance. The scope of the imposed sanctions now has a special extension alongside itself, which is the effort of Western countries to assist Iranians in various fields. In particular, the U.S. effort to facilitate Iranians’ access to the internet should be noted. This context of creating sanctions due to the suppression of internal protests and the violation of women’s rights has created a special situation. The meaning of these sanctions in this context is the lack of a criterion for lifting the sanctions and returning the situation to the pre-protest interaction structure. This specific feature is a very serious matter.
In this framework, Western interaction with Iran now has the criterion of fulfilling Western demands as the satisfaction of Iranian citizens. This is a reality that the Iranian regime must consider. In conditions where protest movements and dissatisfaction arising from the violation of civil rights and the suppression of protesters continue, and the protest structure lacks a leader and a spokesperson, the boundary of reaching the point of Iranian citizens’ satisfaction and fulfilling their demands is not yet clear.
Reaching a point of positive interaction between the West and Iran to understand this clear point requires a diplomatic space that must be much more open than the current interactions between Iran and the West. The rigidity of the regime and government and various structures and their insistence on cultural and social policies are increasingly distancing Iran from accessing that point of positive interaction.
Other reports and analyses have been exclusively prepared in Iran Gate, which you can read.
- The Impact of Sanctions on the Death of Markets
- Raisi Government’s Failure in the Currency Market
