Iraq, the Last Stronghold

Now that Hezbollah, as Iran’s most significant regional arm, has suffered substantial losses in its confrontation with Israel, it might be a suitable time to reassess Iran’s influence in the Middle East. The reality is that maintaining the extent of influence on the northern edge of the Middle East has always been challenging for Iran. The issue is not just Lebanon; Syria has also become a significant challenge for Iran.

As a result, when Lebanon and Syria are in a challenging situation, naturally, this challenge spills over into Iraq, putting Iran’s influence in this country at risk. Recently, Jake Sullivan, the U.S. National Security Advisor, and Antony Blinken, the Secretary of State, have separately spoken with Mohammad Shia al-Sudani, the Prime Minister of Iraq.

The subject of both conversations was the efforts of some Iran-backed groups in Iraq to use the country’s territory to attack Israel. Apparently, the message conveyed to al-Sudani in these discussions was that if Iran-backed groups use Iraqi soil to attack Israel, Israel might carry out attacks in Iraq.

These talks coincided with reports indicating that Iran is planning to deliver a strong and complex response to Israel. Some reports have claimed that Iraq will be a key element in this response. History shows that major military threats against Iran have mainly originated from the west. Alexander the Great conquered Iran from this direction, and in the 7th century, the Sasanian Empire of Iran was attacked from Iraq by the Byzantine Empire, which was based in present-day Turkey.

In the 16th century, the Safavid Empire similarly fought the Ottomans in the west, and a little over a year after the Iranian Revolution, Iraq attacked Iran from the west, leading to a war that lasted eight years. This historical background explains why Iraq has been a critical element in Iran’s national security strategy. The Gulf War in 1991, during which a U.S.-led military coalition weakened the Iraqi regime, provided Iran with the opportunity to initiate the process of turning Iraq into a strategic point of influence.

As a result, Iran began supporting the Shia majority and Kurdish minority against the Ba’athist regime of Iraq. When Washington attacked Iraq again in 2003, Iran was in a very favorable position to become the largest beneficiary of the fall of Saddam’s regime. The eight-year U.S. occupation of Iraq, during which Iraq fell into Iran’s orbit, was a boon for Iran’s regional influence.

The U.S. withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 allowed Tehran to solidify its influence in Iraq. After the creation of Hezbollah in the 1980s and the closer ties between Iran and Syria in the 1990s, Iraq was the last piece of the puzzle that enabled Iran to extend its influence to the Mediterranean Sea. The start of the Syrian civil war and the capture of Mosul by ISIS in 2014 allowed Tehran to leverage this influence as it wished.

The defeat of Syrian rebels in late 2016 and the destruction of ISIS in 2018 made Iran’s confrontation with Israel inevitable. Israel observed how Iran, along with Hezbollah, established a presence on the northern flank, especially in Syria. Therefore, by 2017, the Israeli Defense Forces launched a series of periodic airstrikes on the facilities and supply lines of the Quds Force, the overseas operations arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Israeli army’s attacks were mainly focused on Syria and were designed to prevent the Iranian threat in the Golan region.

The way Israel responded to the October 7 attacks has further disrupted Iran’s regional strategy. Tehran now has to focus on rebuilding Hezbollah and, at this time, cannot rely on Syria, which has no interest in involving itself in the war. Thus, Iran has no choice but to ensure it can maintain its hold over Iraq. Today, Iraq’s airspace has become a route through which Israel can conduct airstrikes against Iran.

If the war intensifies and spills over into Iraq, the entire area of Iran’s influence in the west will turn into a battlefield. This war is likely to weaken Iran’s control over Iraq and Syria, and as a result, countries like Turkey, which want to expand their geopolitical influence in Syria and Iraq, will have the upper hand.