Iraq, the Worried Neighbor
Iraq, the Worried Neighbor
With Trump’s re-election as President of the United States, Iraq finds itself once again in a precarious position.
During Donald Trump’s first term, Iraq became a battleground for power struggles between Tehran and Washington.
The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the intensification of sanctions against Iran led Tehran to increasingly use its tools to exert pressure on the U.S. in the region.
In 2019, confrontations between Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and American forces in the country reached their peak.
The siege of the U.S. Embassy and the infliction of casualties on American military personnel and contractors in Iraq ultimately led to the U.S. operation that assassinated Qassem Soleimani at Baghdad International Airport. In response, Iran launched a missile attack on the Ain al-Asad base in Iraq, which hosts U.S. troops.
The events of 2019 and 2020 show that Iraqi territory had exclusively become a place for settling scores between Iran and the U.S. during Donald Trump’s first term.
However, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani does not want the events of 2019 and 2020 to repeat. During Joe Biden’s tenure, although Iran-aligned forces in Iraq carried out attacks against American forces and the Americans retaliated against these groups, Tehran and Washington ultimately reached a sort of unwritten understanding to halt these attacks and keep Iraqi soil free from Iran-U.S. rivalries.
Even at the height of regional tensions and the Gaza war, although several attacks were carried out against American military bases in the early weeks of the war, these attacks quickly ceased with the resumption of indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. through the Oman channel during the thirteenth government. Iraqi groups, although continuing to attack Israeli interests from Iraqi soil, largely refrained from attacking American personnel and interests in Iraq.
During the three years of his tenure as Iraq’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani has largely managed to control the internal situation and restore political stability to the country.
In 2022, after a year-long political vacuum and the parliament’s failure to reach a consensus on forming a government, Sudani was able to gain the trust of Iraqi political groups and take power.
He has been more successful than his predecessors, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi and Adel Abdul-Mahdi, and hopes to retain the premiership in the upcoming nationwide elections next fall.
However, he faces significant obstacles in achieving this goal. Besides internal challenges, which have intensified in recent months with the scandal of the Sudanese government’s eavesdropping on political rivals, a significant geopolitical obstacle is now emerging against Sudani’s plans to remain Prime Minister.
There is still no indication of how the new Trump administration’s policy towards Iran will unfold. The appointment of officials from various backgrounds with diverse views on Iran—from a Secretary of State who strongly supports increasing pressure on Iran to the appointment of Defense Department deputies who strongly support an agreement with Iran—has made predicting Trump’s administration’s actions regarding Iran difficult.
In this context, Sudani is most concerned about the future of Iran-U.S. relations.
It appears that Iraq’s diplomatic efforts to prevent a potential confrontation between Iran and the U.S. that would affect Iraq began even before Trump’s administration officially took office.
On January 5th, just two weeks before Donald Trump’s inauguration ceremony, Iraqi media, quoting informed officials, reported that Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani received a special message from Donald Trump regarding Iran.
According to the Shafaq News report, this message requested Sudani to take action to reduce the influence of Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and to confront armed groups outside government control.
Such requests had also been openly communicated to the Sudanese government during Joe Biden’s tenure, but the official sending of Trump’s message to Sudani has not been confirmed.
Just four days after the claim of Trump’s message to Sudani was published, the Iraqi Prime Minister made an official visit to Tehran, meeting and discussing with senior officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Whether or not Sudani received a message from Trump before this visit, he intends to manage the potential Iran-U.S. rivalries in Iraq as Trump’s administration begins.
Previously, Sudani had managed to appease Iraqi paramilitary groups and political factions opposed to U.S. presence and close to Iran by announcing the agreement for the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.
Although the full terms of the Sudanese government’s agreement with Joe Biden’s administration for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq remain unclear, the Sudanese government has announced that all U.S. troops, currently estimated at 2,500, will leave Iraq by September 2026.
In the first phase, by September 2025, all American military personnel will withdraw from Baghdad and advisory bases throughout Iraq, and from September 2025 to September 2026, the remaining U.S. forces in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq will also leave the country.
It is unclear how this agreement will fare under the Trump administration. Even during Biden’s tenure, the U.S. Secretary of Defense claimed that the two-year deadline for the complete withdrawal of American forces from Iraq was insufficient, but the execution of this agreement was considered a political victory for Sudani.
With less than a year until Iraq’s 2025 nationwide elections, Sudani is anxiously watching the formation of Donald Trump’s Middle East policy. If Tehran and Washington once again engage in military skirmishes affecting Iraqi territory, all of Sudani’s achievements in creating security and political stability, which have turned Iraq into a destination for foreign investments, will evaporate.
