Israel on the Waiting List
Israel on the Waiting List: Israel and the world were waiting on Saturday to see whether the overnight airstrikes Israel carried out against Iran would mark the end of the latest round of exchanges between two powerful regional military forces or indicate a further step towards a broader war.
The exact dimensions of the four-hour wave of attacks by Israeli fighter jets were still being assessed, but there was no news of widespread casualties, and reports indicated that only military sites were targeted—not Iran’s oil fields or nuclear research labs—suggesting that Israel was seeking a measured and limited retaliation for Tehran’s missile attacks on October 1.
Military analysts and diplomats, who had expected a more extensive and destructive attack, expressed hope that tensions would at least temporarily decrease.
Iran’s air defense force, in a statement broadcast by state media, announced that most of the Israeli missiles had been intercepted, although limited damage had occurred in some areas, and officials were assessing the extent of the attack.
Israeli experts said that the attacks went beyond a symbolic action and might have caused significant damage to Iran’s air defense and missile capabilities.
They said it would take time to determine whether Iran would be forced to respond militarily or could declare the matter closed, as both sides did after a limited missile and drone exchange in April.
Jonathan Conricus, a senior researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says the Israeli attack appears to have achieved several objectives: the most critical parts of Iran’s air defenses have been destroyed, and warehouses containing hundreds of missiles were targeted.
He notes that a more precise assessment will be possible in the coming days with the analysis of satellite images. He also says Tehran, with all its regime targets and sensitive infrastructures, might now be completely vulnerable to future Israeli attacks.
Israeli officials privately stated that Saturday’s operation was designed to deliver a deterrent blow to Iran after Iran fired nearly 200 ballistic missiles earlier this month, in such a way that the Iranian regime would not need to continue the cycle of retaliation. According to a person familiar with Israel’s plans, ultimately, the attack was designed to minimize casualties and control its impact to a level where Iran could deny major damage and manage the situation. This person says, ‘We wanted to give the Iranians an opportunity not to escalate the tension.’
Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies based in Tel Aviv, says these attacks create a complex dilemma for Tehran, which is committed to responding to any significant attack. He says the ball is now in Iran’s court.
While Israel did not attack nuclear or oil facilities, it carried out a significant and extensive attack that could be challenging for Iran.
White House officials immediately after the completion of the attacks expressed hope that Israel had achieved the right balance.
A senior government official said the President and his national security team had worked with Israel over the past weeks to encourage Israel to respond in a targeted and proportionate manner with the least risk to civilians.
The official added that it seems exactly this happened tonight. He said the attack should reduce the risk of further escalation.
However, some Israeli military experts said the attacks were likely limited due to U.S. political pressure ahead of the November 5 elections, and after the elections, Israel might decide to take more decisive action.
Amir Avivi, a reserve brigadier general in the Israel Defense Forces and former deputy head of military readiness, says that a war with Iran will last months. What will happen and when it will happen largely depends on events in the United States.
He adds that the historic opportunity for deeper attacks in Iran in the coming months is not an opportunity Israel will easily pass up. The ultimate strategic goal is to create conditions where Iran cannot pose any threat, not now and not in the future.
Israelis were pleased with the support expressed by Washington and other allies after Saturday’s operation. A person familiar with Israel’s planning says coordination with the Americans was very close.
He added that the Israeli government was also encouraged by Britain’s statement that Israel has the right to defend itself.
Recently, the British have been tough on Israel.
However, the limited scope of the attacks was condemned by Israelis who wanted a more decisive attack.
Many hardliners, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, had urged the government to use the anticipated attacks to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons research program.
Tally Gotliv, a member of the Knesset from the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu, wrote on the social network X that not attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and oil reserves is a serious mistake.
We missed an opportunity to weaken Iran’s potential to become a nuclear power for years.
Others said these attacks should have done more damage to Iran’s oil facilities and economic infrastructure.
Yair Lapid, the opposition leader, wrote on social media that we could and should have extracted a much heavier price from Iran.
Avigdor Lieberman, former defense minister and head of another opposition party, also said, unfortunately, it seems that instead of imposing a real cost, the Israeli government has once again resorted to symbolic actions and public relations. However, these attacks have given Israel a better understanding of Iran’s ability to defend itself against attacks.
Avivi, who advocates for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, says this gives Israel a very good understanding that we can deal with them. One of the key elements is whether Hezbollah, backed by Iran, has the ability or will to respond from Lebanon on behalf of Tehran.
