Killing Peace Talks by Removing Haniyeh

Peace negotiations were slaughtered by the elimination of Haniyeh.

The impact of Haniyeh’s removal on Hamas and Palestinian politics.

What impact will the death of Ismail Haniyeh have on Hamas and Palestinian politics in general?

On the night between July 30 and 31, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political office, was killed in Tehran while on his way to attend the inauguration ceremony of Ebrahim Raisi, the newly elected president of Iran in the fourteenth presidential election.

Although his murder is attributed to Israel, Netanyahu’s government has neither confirmed nor denied it, indicating a devastating blow to Hamas, which had lost several of its leadership members in recent months.

But who was Ismail Haniyeh and what impact will his death have on Hamas and Palestinian politics in general?

Who was Haniyeh?

Ismail Haniyeh, born and raised in the Al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza, has long been one of the prominent figures of Hamas.

Since its establishment in 1987, Haniyeh has been a member of this organization and quickly became one of the most trusted colleagues of the spiritual leader of the group, Ahmed Yassin.

At the end of the second intifada, Ismail Haniyeh was one of the figures who made great efforts to persuade Hamas to participate in the legislative elections in 2006. Eventually, after years of abstaining from participating in a political system that the Hamas movement considered illegitimate, Hamas won in those elections, thanks in part to a mixed electoral system that disadvantaged Fatah, which was led at that time by President Mahmoud Abbas.

Ismail Haniyeh thus became the Prime Minister of the Palestinian National Authority and held this position until the spring of 2007. Tensions escalated with President Abbas due to international opposition to a government under Hamas leadership, leading to an open conflict between the two Palestinian factions. With Hamas gaining control of Gaza, Haniyeh remained one of the prominent figures in the political leadership of this group in the Gaza Strip. However, it was in 2017 that he became the head of the political office of Hamas, a position that had been held by Khaled Meshaal for over twenty years.

A change in leadership made a significant transformation in the organization compared to its previous network. Haniyeh’s personal network had much deeper roots in Gaza, a reality that helped shift some of the organization’s center of gravity towards the strip. The dynamics that we are witnessing today.

However, in foreign policy, Hamas movement’s leadership, particularly Haniyeh, has been the most significant factor in discontinuity.

The characteristic of this was actually an opening towards Iran, a country that had become turbulent especially after Meshaal’s refusal to support Bashar al-Assad within the framework of the Syrian civil war that began in 2011.

What impact will Haniyeh’s death have on Hamas?

Although Haniyeh’s killing still represents a severe blow to Hamas, especially symbolically, it is unlikely that his murder will have an impact on military operations in Gaza.

The military branch of the movement is still under the leadership of military-political figures residing in the strip, who have recently lost prominent figures such as Marwan Issa and, according to the Israeli army’s claim, Mohammed Diab, also known as Muhammad Zahif.

Therefore, more than the confrontation, the impact of Haniyeh’s death should be assessed in the consequences it could have on ceasefire negotiations, the complete cessation of which was a short-term risk.

Even though it seemed that the recent negotiations were completely ineffective, there is now a concern that the killing of Haniyeh could end any prospects for an agreement with the Israeli government.

This concern has been expressed in recent days by various international leaders, including US President Biden, who stated that the killing of the Palestinian group leader is not helpful in reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza.

While negotiations were mainly led by Khalil al-Hayya, the deputy head of Hamas’s political office in Doha, the weight of Haniyeh and the influence he exerted on Gaza’s leadership have always been considered crucial in the course of significant negotiations due to his personal contacts. In addition, Haniyeh’s killing will not only diminish the political office’s ability to exert influence on Hamas leadership in Gaza but also shift the movement’s center of gravity more towards the Gaza Strip.

Although this trend has been ongoing for some time and has accelerated since October 7, the weakening of political leadership in Qatar towards Gaza provides an opportunity for Gaza to take a leading role.

Haniyeh’s death also creates a vacuum in Hamas’s leadership, which therefore needs to find a replacement for it.

The three names mentioned most frequently at this time are Khalid Mashal, Khalil al-Hayyah, and Musa Abu Marzouk. Musa Abu Marzouk served as the former deputy head of the political office between 1997 and 2014 and was also the head of Hamas in intra-Palestinian reconciliation talks. The selection of a new head of the political office will also have implications on the prospects of reconciliation with Fatah and consequently on the broader political dynamics in Palestine.

What will be its impact on Palestinian politics?

The repercussions of Haniyeh’s assassination primarily relate to the escalating internal Palestinian breakdown in negotiations, which seemed to have accelerated in recent months.

Since the brief civil war in 2007, several attempts have been made to reconcile Fatah and Hamas, a process in which Haniyeh has often played a central role.

Since his election as a political leader, Haniyeh has met with Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority, at least twice. In July 2022 in Algeria and a year later in Egypt. It was in this latest meeting that Hamas raised demands regarding the reform of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), an organization that until the establishment of the Palestinian Authority in 1994 was the main political umbrella for Palestinian parties and armed groups.

The potential entry of Hamas into the Palestinian Liberation Organization, which is still at the center of ongoing negotiations following the recent reconciliation with Fatah, is an option supported by some members of the political wing of the movement.

However, joining the PLO comes at the cost of Hamas renouncing violence and terrorism. This will have significant political and ideological consequences, including accepting positions that the organization has adopted over the past thirty years, such as explicitly recognizing Israel.

While it may seem that a faction of Hamas, like the movement led by Musa Abu Marzouk, may be inclined towards this option, it is hard to believe that figures like Yahya Sinwar would be willing to accept such conditions.

Therefore, the death of Haniyeh poses a further risk of escalating these internal tensions, tensions that, although present before October 7, have undoubtedly intensified with the events of the past ten months.