Let’s Take Europe’s Changes Seriously
Let’s take Europe’s changes seriously. This solar and Gregorian year is a year of multiple elections worldwide.
According to announced statistics, this year, more than sixty countries worldwide will witness various elections at the level of presidential, council, national parliaments, or the European Parliament.
In the past two weeks, nearly thirty European countries held European Parliament elections and, in some cases, their national parliaments, leading to significant events such as political changes in France. The far-right party in France surpassed other parties, including the ruling party, and announced its readiness to seize national power, forcing the French President to dissolve the French Parliament and call for early elections.
On the other hand, in the next three weeks, specifically on the upcoming July 4th, the UK will also witness parliamentary elections. It seems that after nearly 14 years of absolute Conservative Party rule on the British Isles, the Labour Party, with a significant gap of about twenty percent that it has already created in polls against the Conservative Party, will win the upcoming elections and replace the Conservative Party in the British Prime Minister’s office.
Although the appearance suggests a democratic process in these countries and the replacement of traditional parties for power transition, the Labour Party’s rise to power with specific tendencies regarding international developments, particularly the clear differences in views between this party and the Conservative Party on the Middle East, especially Palestine and the Gaza war, is of great importance.
Based on the positions announced by the Labour Party leader regarding developments in Gaza, besides accepting the two-state solution for the future of Palestine in light of Israel’s actions in Gaza, the UK Labour Party, like some other European countries such as France, Belgium, Spain, and the Nordic countries, has expressed its readiness to recognize the Palestinian state.
Therefore, if predictions and polls for the UK elections in three weeks come true, a significant and noteworthy shift in UK policies in the Middle East and the issue of Palestine during the post-Elizabeth II era and King Charles’s reign is on the horizon.
Although Jeremy Corbyn, the former charismatic leader of the Labour Party and a brave supporter of the Palestinian issue and changing Britain’s Middle East policy, is no longer at the helm of the Labour Party, the party’s close inclination towards Palestine and transformation in Britain’s traditional Middle East views remain strong. Despite some relatively different views of the current leader compared to Corbyn’s, there is hope for a strategic transformation in the Labour Party’s approach to the Palestinian issue, creating expectations for the Middle East region.
This transformation in the UK’s traditional Middle East policies comes at a time when the United States is trying to foster closer relations and prepare for a new strategic relationship and security agreement with Saudi Arabia, aiming to create the necessary conditions for the Saudi Crown Prince to establish relations with Israel, seeking a solution within the framework of Washington-Tel Aviv interests in the region.
Remember that in the final years of the twelfth government, the historic meeting of the then Iranian Foreign Minister with Mr. Jeremy Corbyn, the then Secretary-General of the UK Labour Party in London, was considered a noteworthy and highly influential point in Tehran-London relations. Although Corbyn lost his leadership in the Labour Party due to disagreements with some of the party’s radical and Atlanticist factions, such as the Tony Blair faction, which at that time also represented the international community on the Middle East issue, despite significant potential in the last UK parliamentary elections against the Conservative Party, he had to step down from leadership. However, he is still considered one of the influential figures in the Labour Party’s leadership.
It should be noted that the future UK government, which is expected to be a Labour government, will face many criticisms due to the current Conservative government’s unconditional support for Israel in the Gaza war. The unilateral positions of Rishi Sunak, the current Indian-origin Conservative Prime Minister of the UK, on the Gaza issue and the traditional Conservative support for Israel will place London in a difficult and complex situation in Middle East developments. Therefore, if this party can win the elections after July 4th, the Labour Party’s readiness to recognize the Palestinian state will be very important in the peace process in the region.
However, some of Mr. Keir Starmer’s positions, the current leader of the Labour Party, in his policies towards Israel in Gaza and his refusal to accept an arms embargo on Israel have also drawn much criticism for the Labour Party. This is while the UK Labour Party has, over the past years, been favored by a significant portion of pro-Palestinian British voters due to its close and supportive positions on the Palestinian issue. Therefore, pursuing and emphasizing these policies will play a crucial role in attracting British voters on election day.
However, past experiences of parties show that when they come to power, their principled positions become less prominent than when they acted as the opposition party and shadow government against the ruling party.
In this context, the performance of Tony Blair, the Labour Prime Minister of the UK during the Iraq war, and Blair’s unconditional support for the US and George W. Bush in the military attack on the region have left a very unfavorable legacy for the Labour Party, which this party must certainly take appropriate action to dispel doubts about its socialist positions.
The Labour Party’s positions during Jeremy Corbyn’s era, especially on the JCPOA negotiations and nuclear issues, and the party’s constructive view in supporting these negotiations, represent another chapter of the Labour Party’s diplomatic commitments in dealing differently with Iran’s principled and international positions and the JCPOA issue.
Although the Palestinian issue and the Gaza war have currently focused London’s positions on Palestinian developments, this does not negate London’s strategic relations in the Middle East.
Currently, the UK’s economic relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council exceed 40 billion euros, and Egypt alone has annual economic exchanges of 5 billion euros with London, which are not easily overlooked for London’s fragile economic situation. The inactive capacities in economic relations with Tehran can outline another promising prospect for the island.
The Labour Party has also announced that it respects and will accept the decision of the International Court of Justice in The Hague regarding the arrest warrant for the Israeli Prime Minister. Although post-Brexit UK-EU relations have not been favorable under the Conservative Party’s positions, the Labour Party, by accepting the UK’s stance on leaving the EU, seeks to establish closer and more active relations with the union.
Given the current conditions and the outlook for post-European Parliament election developments and the political aftershocks in many of these countries, including France, there is an expectation from the future Labour government in the UK after the July 4th elections to see if it can establish a specific Middle Eastern diplomatic relationship within the framework of more diverse solutions.
According to experts’ predictions, the Labour Party leader is facing many pressures to adopt different approaches compared to Jeremy Corbyn’s pro-Palestinian policies.
However, the Israeli government’s criminal actions in Gaza have compelled him to put the recognition of the Palestinian state on the agenda, creating challenges and opportunities for London in the Middle East. It seems that the Labour Party’s future diplomacy in the Middle East regarding the Palestinian issue will prioritize security and cooperation in the region, focusing on regional development and progress.
In any case, Europe, in light of the ongoing elections, particularly what is happening in London and Paris, has left observers of these two countries’ developments waiting for the election results and the future course of developments and their impacts on the Middle East.
Therefore, it seems that whatever results emerge from the discussed developments will create a valuable opportunity for influence and responsibility in the developments of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s national interests.
As previously mentioned, the UK Labour Party’s positions on Palestine and the Gaza war have significant differences from the Conservative Party’s traditional Middle East policies. The historic meeting of the twelfth government’s Foreign Minister with the previous Labour Party leader in London is a consideration that could have significant impacts on the current Middle East developments and US diplomacy in bringing Arab countries of the region closer and establishing their relations with the Israeli regime, the two-state solution, and official recognition of the Palestinian state.
If the commotion of the fourteenth presidential election does not absorb all the political energy and attention of the country, the current conditions have once again created an opportunity for national interests, which the fourteenth government must now take part in designing, taking responsibility, and effectively influencing the Middle East developments in line with national interests.
