Middle East Awaits

Middle East on standby

Israel is waiting for Iran’s response

The US is sending more warships and fighter jets to the Middle East, and Iran is likely to attack Israel any moment after the killing of Hamas leader in Tehran

The US military is sending more warships and fighter jets to the Middle East to support Israel and defend against an imminent Iranian attack

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s promise to punish Israel for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, may materialize in the coming days

The situation in Lebanon is very tense, where missiles may be launched in retaliation for Ismail Haniyeh’s killing towards Tel Aviv, especially after the recent killing of senior Hezbollah member Fouad Shukr

Several countries including the US, UK, France, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible

After Israel’s attacks on Beirut and Tehran, the region seems ready for geographical expansion of conflict and escalation of tensions

Meanwhile, the Israeli regime’s military killings in Gaza continue, with at least 30 Palestinians, mostly women and children, killed in the past 24 hours inside two schools that Israel claims hosted some Hamas operational bases

Also on Monday, a tent city near a hospital in the central strip of Gaza was targeted.

The attacks, which took place a day after failed negotiations in Cairo, are believed to indicate that Israel has undermined any diplomatic efforts by killing Haniyeh.

Imminent Attack

Israel has been preparing itself for a response to Iran’s attacks on Beirut and Tehran in recent days, although it has never claimed responsibility for the attacks on Beirut and Tehran.

According to Axios news, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told G7 allies that a counterattack by the Islamic Republic may take place on Tuesday, although the exact methods and timing are still unclear.

President Joe Biden also met with national security staff on Tuesday in the Situation Room to discuss escalating tensions.

On the sidelines of this meeting, Biden also held a phone conversation with King Abdullah of Jordan.

According to White House advisors, diplomacy and new military tools in the region are being mobilized with a dual purpose of deterrence and readiness in case of attacks. Currently, making any guesses about the extent of attacks on Israel is very difficult.

Until today, the conflicts with Lebanon have been concentrated along the border, with the peak being the massacre in Majdal Shams, which Israel attributes to Hezbollah, while Hezbollah denies any responsibility.

While the moment of the most apparent conflict with Iran dates back to April when Israel attacked Iranian consulates in Damascus and Tehran launched hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israel two weeks later, in those attacks, which mostly seemed like a show of force, Tel Aviv suffered virtually no serious damage.

This time, Iran may want to respond to an attack that resulted in the killing of a Hamas leader in a more noticeable and serious manner, which could also be interpreted as a humiliation to its national security system.

Diplomacy at an impasse.

The likely killing of Ismail Haniyeh will not have a direct impact on the battlefield where Israeli retaliation continues.

Furthermore, Hamas’s military strategy is unlikely to change significantly as its military wing, without informing all representatives of its political wing, which Haniyeh represented, designed and carried out the October 7 attacks.

What will definitely change is the fate of the negotiations that, except for a brief ceasefire in late November during the ten-month war, had very little result, freeing several Israeli hostages. Similarly, in the latest round of talks held in Cairo, no progress was made.

On the other hand, killing a senior negotiator is essentially putting a brake on diplomacy and the possibility of reaching an agreement for a ceasefire and the release of hostages.

Therefore, it seems that the Netanyahu government is more interested in achieving its strategic and military goals rather than the release of hostages who have practically disappeared from the narrative of the war. The exact number of how many of them are still alive and in what conditions is unclear.

However, closing off any possibility of agreement means increasing risks for the entire region.

The attacks on Beirut and Tehran have essentially been more than anything a show of power by the Israeli government, to the detriment of the security of the residents of the Middle East who are increasingly exposed to incidents even beyond the borders of Israel and Palestine.

Israel does not stop.

Once again, we witnessed another massacre by Israel in Gaza Strip on Monday, where two schools were hit and at least 30 people were killed, almost exclusively women and children seeking shelter to escape the bombing.

The Israeli army claimed without providing evidence that this hideout belonged to Al-Farqan Brigade of Hamas.

The term is regularly used by Israel in a retaliatory manner for over 300 days after the attacks of October 7, turning any building in Gaza Strip into a potential target, even in areas where the Israeli army has created safe zones.

For the people of Gaza, no place seems safe anymore, even with continuous evacuations. According to the Ministry of Health, at least 39,623 Palestinians have been killed by Israel, with 40% of them being children. This includes those in the northern Gaza Strip, where the Israeli army has voluntarily refrained from accessing humanitarian aid, leading to loss of lives due to starvation.

However, these are temporary assessments. Without stable ceasefire, it is not possible to excavate under the rubble and retrieve the bodies of many missing individuals. The consequences of attacking Palestinian soil will have long-term effects on the residents there due to the systematic destruction of medical facilities, infrastructure ensuring water supply, and the spread of diseases resulting from long-term stay in inhumane sanitary conditions.

The tensions that seem to be occurring between Israel and Iran are similar to those in April, albeit different.

It is similar because, as in the past, both parties’ inclination to re-establish regional deterrence has been dictated.

However, it may be different because in this unusual game where the primary law seems to be increasing tension to demonstrate power and deter the opponent, a rupture may have occurred.

Although neither Hezbollah nor Iran want to turn the conflict into a regional war, as they have shown well from October until today, an inevitable cycle of attack and counterattack with Israel could escalate beyond the intentions of the actors.

In fact, while Netanyahu is playing with fire by raising risks and betting on symbolic responses from the so-called Resistance Axis, the biggest danger for Iran and Hezbollah is to find themselves trapped in the same trap they have helped create in recent years.