Now Iraq is the last stronghold

Now the last stronghold of Iraq

Now the last stronghold of Iraq

The fall of Bashar al-Assad and the current situation in Syria have created several shifts in the region and power play among the interested countries. Understanding this change is not very complicated. Firstly, with Assad’s fall, Turkey has gained more self-confidence and has taken an offensive stance.

Secondly, Iran has suffered a defeat and naturally is concerned and has taken a defensive position.

However, neither Turkey nor Iran are inclined to confront each other directly.

Monitoring the positions of authorities in both countries shows that they are trying to be cautious to avoid direct confrontation. But the reality is that the path of developments in Syria indicates that the conflict of interests between Turkey and Iran will become more pronounced much sooner than many think.

In fact, both Iran and Turkey, despite their reluctance for confrontation, are captive to the course of events and developments in Syria, and both will inevitably move towards confrontation. In the meantime, the US is also a key player in Syria.

Iran’s concern regarding Syria is that the emergence of a Sunni government in this country could threaten Iraq’s security. If a Sunni government rises to power in Syria, Sunni Arabs will be stationed on both sides of the Syria-Iraq border.

These are exactly the areas that ISIS occupied in 2014 and declared an Islamic caliphate.

Joulani, the commander of the Tahrir al-Sham group, who is now sitting in power in Damascus, used to move back and forth in these areas from the mid-2000s to the early 2010s to join Al-Qaeda. Iran and Iraq entered into war with ISIS from 2014 to 2018.

Ultimately, with the defeat of ISIS, the Sunni areas in Iraq came under the control of the Shia forces of the Popular Mobilization Forces. Now, Iran has completely lost Syria, and Hezbollah has also been greatly weakened.

Therefore, it is natural for Tehran to try to ensure that at least Iraq remains within Iran’s sphere of influence. From Iran’s perspective, Tahrir al-Sham is a hostile force and is also backed by Turkey.

Furthermore, Turkey has a significant military presence in northern Syria and is very keen to weaken separatist Kurds in northern Syria and create grounds for Sunni Arabs to settle in areas under the control of Kurdish forces in Syria.

In fact, Turkey’s ultimate goal is for Sunnis and Turkmen in Iraq to become powerful again.

The power shift of these two groups in Iraq will change the power balance to the detriment of the Shia supported by Iran. Additionally, Turkey has close relations with the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Iraq, and the Kurds in Iraq also control some border areas with Syria.

In this context, the US approach to Syrian Kurds is different. During the emergence of ISIS, the US believed that the Kurds were the only effective force against ISIS. This belief caused a rift with Turkey and, of course, benefited Iran. However, now that the Assad regime has fallen and Donald Trump has promised reduced military intervention in Syria.

Therefore, there is a possibility that Trump and Erdogan have agreed on one side against the emergence of ISIS and on the other side against Iran’s interests in Syria and Iraq. If this happens, it would be the first time that Turkey, in cooperation with the US – Iran’s number one enemy, directly acts against Iran’s interests in the region.

Iran knows that the Shia in Iraq may not be able to withstand the power of the Sunnis in Iraq. However, in the current situation, Iran is in the weakest position and if Trump moves towards implementing a maximum pressure policy, Iran will be more under pressure than before.

The recent events in Syria and Lebanon have not been in Iran’s favor. In the current economic situation, the social capital has been analyzed and the relationship with the national government is not satisfactory. In such circumstances, Iraq is Iran’s last stronghold in the region.

Therefore, the prospect of increased security cooperation between Iran and Iraq is not far-fetched.

If Iraqis perceive a security threat from Syria seriously, they will automatically turn to Iran. In short, the destabilizing situation in Syria may spread to Iraq. If this happens, it could be an opportunity and a threat for the United States.

Turkey will have an opportunity to realize its territorial ambitions, but Iran faces the danger of its entire national security strategy built over the past forty years being threatened. In fact, Iraq is now Iran’s last stronghold.