Nuclear incident in Khordad
The annual session of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency is scheduled to start next Tuesday, June 3rd, Khordad, and continue until June 7th, Khordad.
As usual, we were expecting the release of a new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which many observers believe sets a very different tone and content for the upcoming Board of Governors session, as there is a possibility of adopting anti-Iranian policies up to the point of issuing a resolution.
Especially with news indicating efforts by European JCPOA members Germany, France, and the UK towards issuing a resolution.
According to Shargh, it has been 18 months since the last time the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, with 35 members, approved resolutions against Iran. In that resolution, it was claimed that Iran must cooperate immediately with the Agency’s investigations into discovered uranium particles.
However, some media outlets now report disagreements between Berlin, Paris, and London with Washington, emphasizing differences on issuing a resolution against Tehran.
In general, considering this difference of opinion in terms of dividing tasks into good cops and bad cops has emphasized the statement that Tehran will have a completely different situation in the June session of the Council of Governors compared to the past. During this time, Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, may not have been able to alleviate sensitivities regarding Iran’s nuclear file and also Tehran’s disagreements with the Agency, contrary to expectations.
What does the new report from the agency say?
The new report from the International Atomic Energy Agency, released on Tuesday night, claims that Iran has enriched some of its uranium reserves to more than 30 times the limit set in the 2015 agreement. The report adds that Iran now has 1421 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, an increase of 206 kilograms since the last report in February.
This report alleges that based on estimates, Iran’s enriched uranium reserves have increased by 6758 kilograms from the previous report to 62013 kilograms. Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Agency, expressed regret in this report over Iran’s decision not to change its position regarding the cancellation of licenses for several experienced inspectors of the agency.
Reuters also claims that it has seen two reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency. One of these reports has been sent to the member countries of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency. In a section of this report, it is again referred to the differences between Tehran and the Agency, stating that no progress has been made in implementing the Joint Statement of March 4, 2023, in the past year.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, in its report, states that the Director-General of the Agency has once again requested from the government of Iran and expressed its willingness to continue high-level discussions and technical exchanges following the talks that started from May 6 to 7, 2024.
Grossi also expressed regret in this report about the unresolved outstanding issues. Reuters claims that another report indicates that Iran’s enriched uranium reserves increased from nearly 206 kilograms of 60% purity to 1421 kilograms by May 11, and Iran then diluted 59 kilograms to the level of low enrichment.
Associated Press also reported, citing Raphael Grossi’s report, that there has been no progress yet regarding the revival of permits for some inspectors of this organization in Iran. However, it is expected that this issue will be resolved within the framework of the current negotiations between the Agency and Iran in the context of a statement known as the March 4th agreement.
The Director General of the Agency recalled that talks with Iran following the helicopter crash carrying the Iranian President faced a temporary interruption. However, Iran proposed in letters dated June 11th to continue negotiations in Tehran at a mutually agreed upon date.
Grossi further claims that despite his trip to Tehran, remaining outstanding verification issues have not been resolved because Iran has not provided valid technical explanations regarding the presence of human-origin uranium particles in Varamein and Torquzabad to the Agency, nor has it informed the Agency about their current locations.
In response, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran has declared that all materials, activities, and nuclear sites required have been declared according to their own verification agreement.
In evaluating the text and content of the quarterly report of the Council of Experts, Abolqasem Taheri, in a conversation with Shargh, believes that contrary to expectations and assumptions, Rafael Grossi’s visit to Tehran may now change the situation in the face of Iran’s focus on the eighth presidential election after the passing of Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi.
Because, according to this political analyst, contrary to what is stated in the IAEA quarterly report and Rafael Grossi’s report, more than ever, the groundwork and necessary space for issuing a resolution against Tehran have been prepared to the extent that, in his opinion, even the efforts of China and Russia cannot prevent its issuance.
Nevertheless, Taheri says the most serious and probable factor or obstacle to issuing a resolution overseeing the disputes between the United States and the three European countries of the JCPOA, namely Germany, France, and Britain.
Because, according to this senior international analyst, on the one hand, the United States, considering its stalled talks in Washington and Muscat, is trying to control and stabilize the current tension with Tehran and prevent the escalation of nuclear crises alongside the Gaza war and the Ukraine war on the eve of the US presidential election.
However, Taheri emphasizes that Germany, France, and England have very different assessments and are seeking to issue a resolution.
US pressure on European Troika.
Following what Abolqasem Taheri referred to, The Wall Street Journal recently reported, citing diplomats close to the negotiations, that the US government has pressured three European allies of the JCPOA, Germany, France, and England, to back down from plans to counter Iran due to its progress in its nuclear program, under the threat of issuing a resolution.
According to these sources, the Biden administration is seeking to prevent escalation of tensions with Tehran before the US presidential elections in the fall.
This American media outlet says that Washington is opposed to the efforts of the UK and France to condemn Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors in early June. According to diplomats, the US, in addition to the European Troika, has even pressured some other countries to refrain from supporting a resolution against Iran.
In parallel with the Wall Street Journal report, Reuters has also revealed that the Biden administration is not inclined to seek another resolution against Iran in the recent meetings of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors. Before the last quarterly meeting, European countries including France, England, and Germany, known as the E3, did not reach an agreement with Washington on whether to pursue resolutions or not, but they backed down from it.
In line with this point, Javad Zarif, another expert, believes that the political pressure from the Americans could affect the efforts of the three European countries, members of the JCPOA – Germany, France, and England – and even the actions of Israel in the upcoming quarterly meeting of the Board of Governors.
As a result, he doubts that in the meeting next Tuesday, compelling resolutions against Iran’s nuclear program will be issued or the case of Iran will be referred to the Board of Governors for deliberation.
However, this analyst admits in his continued assessment that the atmosphere of this session of the Supreme Council’s annual meeting will not be in Tehran’s favor in any way, and even if we do not witness the issuance of mandatory resolutions or referral of the case to the Security Council, we are very likely to see strong statements against Tehran being issued.
An action that could further escalate the current tension, as according to this analyst, the nuclear issue was in the shadow of the issuance of strong statements by three European countries in the previous session of the Supreme Council, to which Tehran responded by opening the door to European inspectors. This led to a new chapter of Iran’s disputes with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Biden’s concern about the election outcome
In light of these points and according to Reuters, concern about the future of the US presidential elections is the main reason for Washington’s reluctance to issue resolutions at the annual meeting of the Supreme Council. However, US officials claim that, as in the past, they do not want to give Iran excuses to respond to nuclear activities.
Meanwhile, a European diplomat told Reuters that despite US efforts, a draft resolution has been prepared. Other diplomats have also confirmed that European troikas have a draft ready but have not sent it to the Council members.
A European diplomat, referring to the need to proceed with this resolution, said that the Americans are obstructing the dissemination of the text among Council members. In our discussions, we continue to do whatever it takes to persuade them. However, according to this diplomat, it is still unclear when a decision will be made on this matter.
It is worth noting that America’s reluctance to issue a resolution at the Council meeting cannot be seen as indicative of a change in Washington’s policies towards Tehran’s nuclear program. Moreover, in response to the release of a new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, a US State Department spokesperson claimed that Washington is concerned about Iran’s continued production of highly enriched uranium.
Although the American official has not commented on the details of the agency’s report, he says we are still concerned about Iran’s continued nuclear program development in ways that, according to him, have no valid non-military purpose, including the continued production of highly enriched uranium.
In contrast to the above, Zarif, in his own remarks, looks optimistically towards the stalled talks that took place in Oman in recent weeks and were on Tehran’s agenda before the passing of President Raisi, albeit now on hold due to the absence of the president and the foreign minister.
However, this expert on the JCPOA considers the visit of Oman’s foreign minister to Tehran as a positive signal for continuing negotiations.
In this regard, Nasser Kanani, the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also mentioned in his press conference earlier this week about the visit of Badr Al-Busaidi, the Foreign Minister of Oman, and the possibility of conveying messages from the United States to Tehran. He stated that the exchange of messages between Iran and the American side for negotiations on lifting sanctions has always been ongoing and has not been interrupted. The negotiations are about lifting sanctions and the nuclear issue and have never deviated from this framework. He also added that the content of the news published in Western media about these conversations is not valid and accurate.
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