China Again and the Kenyan Elections
Uhuru Kenyatta, the current president of Kenya, one of the most important countries in Africa, has completed his two terms in office. The recent presidential election in this country was held with much fanfare, and the enthusiastic campaigns, rallies, and street and stadium celebrations of the candidates changed the mood of the cities and villages, as in previous elections. Unlike the last election, there was little news of unrest and clashes between supporters of the candidates, but disputes over the election results, allegations of fraud, and disagreements over vote counting eventually surfaced. The very narrow margin between the two rivals caused such a commotion. Kenya’s political and economic experience in recent years can offer many lessons for developing countries.
Two Enthusiastic Candidates
William Ruto, the current Vice President, was the rival of Raila Odinga, the opposition leader, in the election and was eventually declared the winner by the election commission with 50.49% of the votes. Odinga did not quite stand in the role of opposition leader.
Ruto, as the current Vice President, had serious disagreements with him, and the current president supported the opposition leader, who was his longtime rival and enemy, in the election. The enthusiastic and bustling campaigns and election rallies were accompanied by both candidates’ commitment to maintaining calm and avoiding tensions after the final results were announced. The 2007 election claimed 1,200 lives, and the 2017 election left 100 dead.
Unrest in the Elections
Due to the severe conflicts and instability caused by allegations of fraud in the previous election, the candidates’ representatives are closely monitoring the vote counting, which has slowed down the process. Disagreements over the vote counting process and the announced results have overshadowed everything, and unrest has begun. Leaders of some countries have quickly congratulated William Ruto, and he has also declared victory.
Rich, Poor, Indebted
Like many African countries, Kenya has special natural resources and mines, and many investors are eager to exploit these resources. One of the latest chapters in the long story of interactions with foreign public and private investors in this country is the serious investment by Indians in Kenya’s oil industry. However, Kenya has long been facing a debt crisis, its revenues and expenditures do not match, and the COVID-19 pandemic has severely hurt the fragile economy of this country. Among all the economic and livelihood issues, China, as expected, tops the list of topics.
The Chinese Campaign
The Vice President, who now opposes him and his policies, attacked China in his campaign and criticized its impact on Kenya’s economy and society. He promised to send back the Chinese who have started ordinary businesses in Kenya and are competing with Kenyans in regular jobs like selling mobile phones. Most importantly, he promised to make China’s investment contracts in Kenya public.
China’s large-scale investment projects in developing countries have a specific feature: the absolute confidentiality of contracts. Therefore, William Ruto’s promise to make these contracts public was a very bold move. Raila Odinga, the opposition leader, who is now allied with the current president, shares his cooperation with the Chinese. Odinga’s simple solution to justify the presence of the Chinese has been to blame the West and point to the historically destructive role of European countries and the United States.
China in Kenya
China’s investment contracts in Africa have created some major projects in this country, and highways and a special railway line were built with Chinese money. The nature of these contracts became highly controversial and sparked significant sensitivity in this country. However, this special railway line, which had a noisy opening ceremony, brought positive change to Kenya, and despite the public outrage over the country’s indebtedness, the secrecy of the contracts, and serious signs of corruption in the process, the Kenyan people are very happy with the creation of this railway line.
China, Kenya’s Creditor
China, as one of Kenya’s serious creditors, stands firm on its claims. Officials from this country have downplayed Kenya’s debts to China and have refused to review or forgive even part of the debt. Both electoral rivals have promised to rescue the country from the debt crisis, yet the prospect of fulfilling this promise is unclear. With the victory of the China-critical candidate, it remains to be seen whether Ruto will stay true to his promises about the Chinese, especially making the Chinese contracts public, or if the Chinese government can control him. For countries with special contracts with China, Kenya’s experience is a significant lesson.
