Possible waves of Iran’s attack on Israel
Despite two weeks passing since the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political office chief of Hamas in Tehran, there is still no news of Iran’s reaction and an imminent attack on Israel.
However, since Tuesday afternoon of this week, a serious political and media campaign against Tehran has emerged, seemingly aiming to control Iran and refrain from responding to Haniyeh’s assassination.
According to Iran Gate Motor, these new campaigns, as reported by Fox News citing Western officials, claim that within the next 24 hours and on the day of Tisha B’Av, the ninth day of the month of Av, which is a day of fasting for Jewish followers, Iran intends to attack Israel.
The ninth of Av is the saddest day in Jewish history, and Iran supposedly wants to attack Israel, although ultimately such an event did not take place.
Donald Trump, a candidate in the US elections, also claimed that everyone is expecting attacks from Iran against Israel, but the Iranians will not carry out an attack.
Contrary to what Trump said, Commander Asghar Abbasgholizadeh of the Ashura Corps announced the certainty of the attack in a meeting with the media on Tuesday, August 13, and stated that although the response and retaliation may seem delayed, the enemy is enduring significant pressure by waiting. We are waiting for the leadership’s command, both for patience and perseverance, and for accountability. Previously, a joint statement by Qatar, Egypt, and the US for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza raised speculations about Tehran refraining from attacking Israel. If the ceasefire is achieved, it would end the war in Gaza and Israel’s withdrawal, which ultimately strengthened Hamas’s stance, as they refused to engage in negotiations following Tel Aviv’s attacks on schools and the massacre of civilians.
In this regard, Hamas believes that Washington, Doha, and Cairo’s efforts for a ceasefire in the Gaza war and the return of both sides to the negotiation table with Israel have been coordinated to prevent Iran’s attack on Israel. Ultimately, Hamas announced on Monday this week, August 11, that they will not join the upcoming negotiations on Thursday unless they are based on previous frameworks, not the modified ones.
According to a Palestinian official close to the negotiations, Deutsche Welle reported that conditions regarding Hamas’ decision to participate in the talks may change, but currently, the group believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not serious about reaching a serious agreement.
Despite Hamas’ statements, Jen Psaki, the spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, stated in a briefing that the ceasefire talks in Gaza are still ongoing on Friday and negotiations should continue.
Iran’s response time may be influenced by the ceasefire talks in Gaza on Friday because, according to them, an Iranian attack on Israel could be extensive. Therefore, apart from the mentioned point, there is also a possibility that amidst the political and diplomatic pressures of the past 48 hours and the looming threat of an Iranian response, a psychological game to push Tehran to the brink of Tel Aviv may be raised. At the same time, according to US State Department officials, they have expressed hope that Iran will limit the scope of its response to Israel.
According to Ibisi and citing US State Department officials, it is expected that Iran will attack Israel before Friday.
Europe under pressure
Following what has been said, while the issue of the right and how Tehran will respond to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh is still being discussed, in the past few days, there has been a coordinated pressure from Europeans to stop or reduce the intensity of potential Iranian attacks on Israel.
In the shadow of this pressure wave, Green Continent reported from Reuters that Kyra Starmer, the UK Prime Minister, in a phone call yesterday, Tuesday, asked Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian Vice President, to refrain from attacking Israel and also said that war benefits no one.
Reuters wrote that Starmer, as part of efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, has spoken with Pezeshkian.
According to Sky News, which first reported this conversation, the mentioned phone call lasted 30 minutes, and after Starmer’s conversation, a call was made with Joe Biden, the US President, and his other European allies.
Reuters reported that Starmar expressed deep concerns about the situation in the Middle East in a conversation with physicians and called on both sides to de-escalate tensions to avoid further escalation in the region.
In this conversation, Starmar claimed his commitment to an immediate ceasefire and increasing humanitarian aid to Gaza, stating that there is a serious risk of miscalculation and now is a time for calm and careful reflection, with a focus on diplomatic negotiations.
Starmar also, according to Reuters, urged his allies in Europe and America to pressure Iran to stop what it perceives as destabilizing actions in the region.
He also reiterated the baseless claim of the West regarding Tehran’s assistance to Moscow in the Ukraine war.
Similar positions were raised by the German Chancellor in a phone call on Tuesday with physicians, where the Iranian President emphasized that Tehran has always considered itself obligated to comply with international laws and regulations, welcoming the expansion of interactions with all countries and emphasizing that Iran will never succumb to the pressure of coercive sanctions and aggression, but rather sees responding to aggressors as its right in accordance with international standards.
On the same Tuesday, IRNA also reported, citing Ansa news agency, that Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani had a half-hour phone call with Ali Bagheri, the acting Foreign Minister of Iran.
Tajani had claimed about the content of his phone call with Bagheri, stating that in the call, Tehran emphasized its right to react to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political bureau chief of Hamas, and Fuad Shukr, one of the senior commanders of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Italian Foreign Minister also wrote on the social network X about his phone call with Bagheri on Tuesday, calling for moderation and a constructive approach.
Now is the time to prevent reactions that may escalate tensions in the region and jeopardize the ceasefire efforts in Gaza. Tajani concluded his post in the virtual space with the sentence: ‘It is enough to sacrifice the lives of innocent civilians.’
Anti-Iran statements from the US and four European countries
Following phone calls and diplomatic messages from Europe aimed at tension reduction, control, and mediation in the region, the leaders of the United States and the four countries of England, France, Germany, and Italy have called on Iran to refrain from a possible attack on Israel in a joint statement. They also declared their readiness to defend Israel against threats from Iran.
As stated in this statement, Iran should refrain from the decision to militarily respond to Israel. The countries of the United States, England, France, Germany, and Italy also asked Iran to refrain from its constant threat of military attack on Israel.
The statement further emphasizes that the United States and the four countries of England, France, Germany, and Italy are ready to defend Israel against threats from Iran, and the leaders of these countries discussed the serious consequences of such attacks for regional security.
The five mentioned countries claimed that they support efforts to reduce tensions in the Middle East.
We support efforts to achieve a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza. It is necessary that aid in Gaza be delivered and distributed without any restrictions as there is no time to waste, and all parties must take responsibility.
In addition to a joint statement by the leaders of the United States and four European countries – the UK, France, Germany, and Italy – IRNA reported on Tuesday that the UK, in a joint statement with France and Germany released by the British government on the same Tuesday, called on Iran to refrain from attacking Israel, which these three countries claim would escalate tensions and eliminate the possibility of a ceasefire.
Furthermore, London, Paris, and Berlin stated in their joint statement that the war must end now and all detainees should be released. The statement also mentioned that the people of Gaza are in need of immediate and unrestricted aid distribution.
Response from Tehran
Naser Kanani, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also yesterday, on August 14, in response to a joint statement by three European countries, France, Germany, and England regarding the regional developments, stated that the statement of the leaders of the three European countries has been issued at a time when Western countries and Israel’s supporters continue to commit various international violations, including war crimes against the defenseless Palestinian people, and the recklessness of Israeli authorities in committing international crimes has escalated.
Kanani, referring to the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, also mentioned that in a situation where the United Nations and its Security Council have been unable for over 10 months to create any deterrence against Israel, Israel’s brutal actions against the Palestinian people and its cross-border assassinations in other regional countries are taking on new dimensions every day, and to the utmost surprise, no practical and effective action to stop or counter these crimes is observed by Western countries, including Germany, France, and England.
The ninth significant visit of Blinken to the region
Amid these reports, Hebrew-language media outlets reported that the US Secretary of State will enter the occupied territories during his regional trip on Wednesday night, although at the time of preparing this report, the trip had not taken place. Nevertheless, the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper claimed that Antony Blinken will arrive in Israel tonight during his trip to the region, which includes Qatar and Egypt.
As reported by Fars, Israeli journalist Barak Ravid and the Axios website had previously reported that Antony Blinken would travel to Qatar, Egypt, and the occupied territories, but this trip has not been finalized yet.
Quoting informed sources, Axios wrote in a report that the US Secretary of State is scheduled to travel to West Asia on Wednesday night. If Blinken’s trip to the West Asia region takes place, this would be his ninth visit to the occupied territories since October 7th, 2021.
The latest trip of the US Secretary of State to the occupied territories took place in early June, two months ago. This was the first visit of the US Secretary of State to the occupied territories following Israel’s recent action in assassinating Hamas senior leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
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