Prefer fire to revenge.
According to Iran Gate, Dimitri Jandlman, an advisor to Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, told the Russian news agency TASS that it is expected that the head of Mossad, David Barnea, will lead the Israeli delegation.
Today is the sixteenth day after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Leaders of regional and non-regional countries, each playing a role in the Middle East developments, are closely monitoring the events of these days with concern.
Because no one knows yet how Iran’s response will be, and whether it will lead to a widespread regional war or not.
Another analysis suggests that even if Iran is not waiting for the outcome of Atashbous, it is currently using fear tactics and psychological operations against Israel. Iran usually does not target residential areas in wars and military actions.
Perhaps for this reason, we can analyze that the anxiety in the Israeli security apparatus and army to assess and prepare for Iran’s attack does not exist to the same extent among the residents of the occupied territories.
Of course, this does not mean Israel is afraid.
Their crimes in Gaza have continued with intensity even in these 16 days, targeting civilians and not stopping the assassination of Hezbollah and Palestinian resistance forces.
However, part of their current security and military capacity is now focused on escalating tensions with Iran and preventing a possible attack on Tehran.
Western leaders are concerned that Iran may escalate its actions against Israel operationally and increase tensions before these talks yield results. Hamas has previously stated that it will not participate in these negotiations because the Israeli Prime Minister keeps adding new conditions each time.
The American newspaper Wall Street Journal reported, citing informed sources, that Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas’ political office, sent a message to Egypt and Qatar, Arab mediators, stating that Hamas’ negotiation team will participate in ceasefire talks only if Israel stops its military operations.
However, in the past two days, there have been speculations that Iran might forego retaliating for the assassination of Fakhrizadeh in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Reuters news agency has quoted three senior Iranian officials as saying that if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza and the war ends, Iran will refrain from retaliation. Approximately 40,000 civilians have been killed during the Gaza war so far.
Reuters claim
Reuters news agency reported on Tuesday an exclusive story about Iran’s intention to turn a blind eye to attacking Israel in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza.
According to Asr-e-Iran, Reuters, citing 3 unnamed senior Iranian officials, claims that Iran will only refrain from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil if a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, expected from this week’s negotiations, is reached.
In another part of the report, it is mentioned that Iran has committed to seriously respond to the assassination of Haniyeh, which took place during his recent visit to Tehran at the end of last month, and blamed Israel for it.
Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in this assassination.
The US Navy has stationed warships and a submarine in the Middle East to strengthen Israel’s defense.
According to Reuters, a senior Iranian security official said that Iran, along with allies like Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza negotiations fail or if they perceive Israel delaying the talks.
These sources did not say how long Iran would allow negotiations to proceed before Iran’s direct military response to Israel.
According to these sources, who did not want their names disclosed, with the increasing risk of a broader war in the Middle East following the recent assassinations of Haniyeh and Shakir Fawaz, a senior Hezbollah commander in Iran, has been in discussions with Western countries and the United States on ways to retaliate.
Biden’s Hope
US President Joe Biden, who traveled to New Orleans, Louisiana on Tuesday, August 13, expressed hope in response to a question from reporters about whether he expects Iran to refrain from retaliatory attacks on Israel if a ceasefire agreement is reached, saying, ‘That is my expectation.’
We will see what Iran does; we will see what happens. According to Euronews, expressing concern over this attack and its consequences on the ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages in Gaza, it has become harder to reach an agreement, but he will not give up.
Pentagon’s estimate of Iran’s response
Pentagon spokesperson Ryder commented on Iran’s possible reaction. Ryder stated that it is not intended to speculate or hypothesize about the dates and times when Iran will carry out attacks or when one of their proxy forces will carry out attacks. Iranian statements have been very clear, so we must take them seriously.
But our focus is on preventing escalation of tensions, striving for a ceasefire, and the release of hostages.
The necessity of a correct analysis of the Washington-Tel Aviv relationship
An important point that various analysts have repeatedly emphasized is the need for a correct analysis of the relationship between America and the Tel Aviv regime. Currently, the US is trying to prevent a widespread war in the region due to domestic interests and its own reasons.
Israel is pressuring for a ceasefire due to its own interests, and there are disagreements within the elites and ruling body of the country regarding how to deal with Israel’s behavior, especially the genocide in Gaza, which requires further analysis.
Among these points, it is important to note America’s belief in preserving Israel’s existence. If this extensive war threatens Israel’s existence, naturally, America will try to prevent it, and if it starts, it sees itself obligated to defend the Zionist regime.
For this reason, in all the past months during the ongoing war in Gaza, America has not wavered in its support for Israel.
Qasem Mohabbali, a former diplomat of our country, stated about the proposed hypothesis of a ceasefire that instead of revenge, this issue would end in favor of the Palestinians, the Gaza war would end, and the threat of war would also be removed from the region.
The question of whether Iran has the right to be accountable is one issue, and when to use it is another. If this claim is true, it is in favor of the Palestinian and Lebanese regions. I think if such a thing is raised, it will be welcomed by various parties in this equation.
He emphasized the positive impact of this decision on Iran’s regional and international reputation. Everyone is currently concerned about the start of a war and more casualties in Gaza. The humanitarian crisis in this region, the lack of water, medicine, and food that people struggle with, provides motivation to end this situation.
Lebanese people are also worried that a widespread direct conflict may start. I believe that Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, and the countries around the Persian Gulf are not interested in starting this war and welcome this issue because if a war occurs, we all suffer.
Even the continuation of this current crisis is harmful to us. If this action is justified, regional countries will show more support for Iran, as it has passed the natural right of regional interests and preventing the start of a war.
No country benefits from war.
Middle East analyst Hassan Hanieh believes that Israel, the US, and European countries are fearful of Iran’s strong response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. Therefore, pressure on Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire has increased.
Western countries’ analysis is that if Iran wants to respond to Israel, this response should not be limited to actions by Tehran alone.
They believe that it is possible for the Resistance Axis from Yemen to Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria to simultaneously attack Israel, opening up 5 fronts against this regime. If these fronts do not end in the destruction of Israel, serious consequences will follow, leading to a widespread war.
Regional powers perceive that first and foremost, a ceasefire, even if tactical and temporary, must be established so that if fronts are opened by Iran, at least the internal front in Gaza remains calm. In reality, Israel should be able to confront the external front outside its occupied territories. This perception is close to reality, and they are trying to establish a ceasefire as soon as possible before Iran initiates any operations against Israel.
I believe that Iran will give the necessary response to Israel at the right time and place. Currently, there is a lot of pressure and messages.
Americans have sent several messages and even incentives to Iran not to respond, as the region cannot tolerate a widespread war.
Emmanuel Macron, in a call with the Egyptian President, urgently requested that the issue of attacking Israel be taken off the agenda.
The Prime Minister of the UK has sent messages to regional figures such as the King and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, the King of Jordan, and even the President of Egypt, requesting Iran to refrain from responding to Israel.
Because all countries in the region will suffer from the outbreak of a war between Iran and Israel and the Axis of Resistance.
Therefore, everyone is trying to calm Iran down, but Israel has violated Iran’s national sovereignty, and I believe an appropriate response will be given at the right time and place.
Persian
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