Principlists as Absolute Owners of the Assembly of Experts
Principlists as Absolute Owners of the Assembly of Experts: The process of reviewing the qualifications of candidates for the sixth Assembly of Experts has concluded. According to the spokesperson of the Guardian Council, 144 individuals have been granted permission to participate in what can be termed a pseudo-election due to the manner of its execution and oversight. The overwhelming majority of candidates lean towards principlism, with 16 independent faces among them, and no candidates with reformist or moderate tendencies are on the list.
In this period, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Interior, 510 individuals had registered as candidates, which is fewer than the previous period. In the fifth period, due to the heightened interest in elections within the framework of a social desire to change the composition of the Assembly of Experts and the campaign against the ‘Jim Triangle’ of Ahmad Jannati, Mohammad Yazdi, and Abolqasem Mesbah Yazdi, the inclination to run was higher.
Indeed, from the beginning, the Assembly of Experts has been a gathering of the elder statesmen of the Islamic Republic and jurists and mujtahids who believe in the theory of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist, who have not had a strained relationship with the sitting Supreme Leader. The elections for this assembly have never been seriously competitive, and participation has been limited to the two main factions of the system. However, the right-wing faction, which is the ancestor of the current principlists, has always held the upper hand, centered around the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom.
Despite having significant authority that could potentially curb the arbitrary and autocratic actions of the Supreme Leader, the Assembly of Experts has, in practice, maintained a neutral stance, except for the election of Ali Khamenei as Ayatollah Khomeini’s successor. This ceremonial performance has increased alongside the reduced presence of the left-wing faction and subsequently the reformists and moderates during Khamenei’s leadership period. It has now reached a stage where the vast majority of approved candidates for the sixth Assembly of Experts have complete political and ideological alignment with Khamenei and other elements of the hard core of power and are fully obedient.
It should also be noted that since the second period, the Guardian Council has been responsible for reviewing the qualifications of candidates, which plays a significant role in the neutral performance of the Assembly of Experts due to creating a vicious cycle. According to the constitution, the Assembly of Experts determines and oversees the Supreme Leader’s performance and has the authority to dismiss him, but the qualifications of the candidates are determined by the Guardian Council, whose members are directly appointed by the Leader or approved by him.
The lowest rate of qualification approval occurred in the second period after Ali Khamenei became the Leader, where prominent left-wing figures, the ancestors of the reformists, were disqualified or forced to take a written exam. The lack of competition in the elections of the Assembly of Experts is such that in no period has the number of approved candidates averaged more than twice the number of needed seats. This ratio was at its lowest in the second period, where in some areas, elections were not held due to the absence of competition. In that period, in Tehran province, for the election of 15 representatives, there were only 16 candidates, and the official participation rate was announced at 37 percent.
More than 40 percent of the members of the first Assembly of Experts were not present in the second period for various reasons, and the composition of the Assembly of Experts changed significantly. The least disqualification was observed in the first period when the Guardian Council was not responsible for reviewing the qualifications of candidates. However, it should be noted that, on average, 40 percent of the composition of the Assembly of Experts has changed in each period. Below are some features of the sixth Assembly of Experts election.
Differences from the Previous Period
22 of the initial representatives of the fifth Assembly of Experts have passed away: Noorollah Tabarsi, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Seyyed Mahmoud Shahroudi, Mohammad Yazdi, Mohammad Mo’men, Abdolnabi Namazi, Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari, Mohammad Mohammadi Nik, Ebrahim Haj Amini Najafabadi, Nasrollah Shahabadi, Mohammad Hassan Fazel Golpayegani, Seyyed Hashem Bathaee, Abbas Ali Soleimani, Asadollah Imani, Seyyed Abolfazl Mir-Mohammadi, Mohammad Feyz Sarabi, Habibollah Mihan-Nawaz, Ali Asghar Masoumi Shahroudi, Mohammad Faqih, Mir Fakhruddin Mousavi Nanehkaran, Mohammad Ali Taskhiri, and Abbas Ali Akhtari. Nine others did not run in this period: Ahmad Mohseni Gorgani, Hashem Hashemazadeh Harisi, Ahmad Jannati, Seyyed Ali Asghar Dastgheib, Seyyed Abdolhadi Hosseini Shahroudi, Mohammad Hadi Abdokhodaei, Zeinolabedin Ghorbani, Seyyed Kazem Nourmofidi, and Mohammad Emami Kashani.
Four individuals were disqualified: Hassan Rouhani and Ahmad Alavi from the moderates, and Abdolkarim Farhani and Ahmad Pervaie from the principlists. In total, 62 of the initial representatives of the fifth Assembly of Experts and those who reached this assembly in by-elections are participating in the sixth Assembly of Experts elections, competing for 88 seats.
The greatest reduction in candidates compared to the previous period occurred in Tehran province. Only four of the initial elected representatives of the fifth Assembly of Experts are among the approved candidates for the sixth period.
Also noteworthy is the non-candidacy of Seyyed Rouhollah Sadrsadati, who, after the incident of his brother’s disappearance, which was accompanied by rumors of arrest, has not been active and ultimately did not run for the sixth Assembly of Experts elections. Among the approved candidates, only Movahedi Kermani, Mousavi Jazayeri, and Ghorashi have been members of the Assembly of Experts in all five previous periods.
Complete Loss of Meaningful Competition
Competition in this period of elections has reached its lowest point, and there is almost no significant political difference between the candidates. By further narrowing the window of qualification approval, the Guardian Council has effectively handed over the space to the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom to enhance their majority position in the Assembly of Experts.
The least competition, even among candidates who have passed the Guardian Council’s barrier, is in East Azerbaijan province, where representatives are practically already appointed. The most relative competition is in the provinces of Qom, Ilam, Hormozgan, Yazd, and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, where one out of three candidates has a chance of reaching the Experts’ seat. The average competition rate in the provinces is 67 percent, while this rate for the twelfth parliamentary elections nationwide is two percent.
Continuation of the Hegemony of the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom
With the advantage provided by the Guardian Council, the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom has found the opportunity to expand their influence in the Assembly of Experts in a field without competitors. This event relatively increases their weight in choosing Khamenei’s successor. The Guardian Council disqualified both reformists and moderates, as well as figures affiliated with radical principlists and neo-principlists, similar to previous periods. Individuals like Heydar Moslehi and Mehdi Taeb could not pass the Guardian Council’s filter.
Mostafa Pourmohammadi managed to get his qualification approved after an initial rejection. Eight years ago, his qualification was not confirmed, but ultimately he was not included in the list of the Society of Seminary Teachers for Tehran province, so his chances of becoming a representative are low. Since Pourmohammadi is the Secretary-General of the Combatant Clergy Association of Tehran, the influence of this governmental clerical organization in the capital has nearly disappeared, and the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom alone determines the seats of the Assembly of Experts.
It seems that the institution of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist has established a balance so that the old and traditional faces of the principlists have the upper hand in the Assembly of Experts, but in the parliamentary elections, they lose to new faces and structures. The Society of Seminary Teachers is the main supporter of the Principlists’ Unity Council, which competes with the Islamic Revolution Forces Coalition Council. However, the Society of Seminary Teachers has also undergone a generational transformation, and apparently, responsibilities are being transferred to their second generation. The members of the Society of Seminary Teachers participating in the Assembly of Experts elections mostly belong to the second generation, which has lowered the average age of the sixth Assembly of Experts compared to the fifth.
Presidency of the Assembly of Experts
The withdrawal of Ahmad Jannati, the president of the fifth Assembly of Experts, from candidacy for the sixth period has created a special and uncertain situation for the presidency of the sixth Assembly of Experts. The first and second vice-presidents of the fifth Assembly of Experts are Ebrahim Raisi and Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, respectively, who relatively have a better chance of presidency, but their potential presidency for the sixth period is not certain. Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani, Alireza Arafi, and Ahmad Alamolhoda may also succeed Ahmad Jannati.
Strengthening Ebrahim Raisi’s Successor Position
Ebrahim Raisi, with the intervention of the Guardian Council and the transfer of candidates from other provinces, emerged from direct assignment to the South Khorasan province seat. The likely composition of the sixth Assembly of Experts has more compatibility and alignment with him, which relatively strengthens his position as a successor to Khamenei. In the fifth Assembly of Experts, Ebrahim Raisi won the first vice-presidency position over Sadegh Larijani, and with the new composition, it seems his votes have increased compared to before.
