Putin’s Sword Dance with the Arab Prince
Putin’s Sword Dance with the Arab Prince: Russia and Saudi Arabia called on all OPEC powers to join the oil production cut plan. On December 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a swift trip to the United Arab Emirates, but not to attend the United Nations climate conference in Dubai, and then traveled to Saudi Arabia.
In Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE, Putin met with Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the President of the United Arab Emirates and the ruler of Abu Dhabi. He then went to Riyadh and, for the first time since October 2019, met with Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. According to the French state news agency TASS, they discussed cooperation in the oil industry and international matters, particularly the conflict in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas.
Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s two largest oil exporters, on Thursday, just days after the tumultuous producers’ club meeting, urged all OPEC Plus members to join the production cut agreement for the benefit of the global economy.
Hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Riyadh to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Kremlin released a joint statement from Russia and Saudi Arabia announcing the conclusion of their talks.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and other allies agreed last week to voluntarily cut about 22 million barrels of oil per day, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, exceeding their voluntary cut by 13 million barrels per day. The Kremlin’s statement noted that the two sides appreciated the close cooperation between them and the successful efforts of OPEC Plus countries in strengthening the stability of global oil markets.
The statement declared that they emphasized the importance of continuing this cooperation and the necessity for all participating countries to join the OPEC Plus agreement in a way that serves the interests of both producers and consumers and supports global economic growth. The Russian version of the statement used the word ‘join,’ while the English translation released by the Kremlin also used the word ‘join the OPEC Plus agreement.’
The Saudi state news agency SPA announced that the Crown Prince and Putin, in their meeting, emphasized the necessity for OPEC Plus members to adhere to the group’s agreement. Oil market sources said that this public and explicit statement by the Kremlin and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia about joining the oil production cut seems to be an attempt to send a message to those OPEC Plus club members who have not reduced their oil production sufficiently or at all.
The largest OPEC member excluded from the production cut is Iran, whose economy has been affected by various US sanctions since 1979 after the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran. Iran is increasing production and hopes to reach 36 million barrels per day by March 20 next year.
After returning from Saudi Arabia to Moscow, Putin met and talked with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Thursday at the Kremlin.
Putin in Riyadh
The intention and purpose of Putin’s trip to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, where he was escorted by four Russian fighter jets, remain shrouded in mystery. It is still unclear whether the main goal of this trip was to discuss oil and international political relations or if there was another specific and important reason that prompted Putin to make a rare trip abroad.
The Kremlin announced that Putin and Mohammed bin Salman also discussed the conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and Yemen, Iran’s nuclear program, and deepening defense cooperation. It appears that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has tried to position Saudi Arabia as a regional power acting independently of the United States. Saudi Arabia is the largest buyer of weapons from the US.
Putin, who sent his forces to Ukraine and launched a military attack on the country in February 2022, says that Russia is engaged in an existential battle with the West. The West has invited its allies across the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Asia to participate in its efforts to increasingly isolate Moscow. The joint statement noted that regarding the Ukraine crisis, the Russian side appreciated the humanitarian and political efforts of His Highness Mohammed bin Salman.
Disagreement in OPEC Plus
The OPEC Plus producers’ group, whose members produce more than 40% of the world’s oil, was forced to postpone its meeting due to disagreements with African producers about lower production. However, some sources believe that this disagreement and rift are much deeper than just reducing production levels. After the producers decided to cut supply, the price of oil fell to its lowest level in five months, a clear sign that the market expected more decisive action from OPEC Plus.
Putin and Mohammed bin Salman, who together control one-fifth of the oil pumped daily, shook hands warmly and firmly at the moment of their meeting, which caught the attention of news agencies.
Both Mohammed bin Salman and Putin are seeking and in need of high oil prices, which are essentially the lifeblood and main artery of their economies. The question posed for both parties is how much responsibility each should take to keep prices high and how they can achieve this.
Putin told Mohammed bin Salman that the planned trip of the prince to Russia was changed at the last moment, forcing him to visit Riyadh. Putin, smiling at the Saudi Crown Prince, said, ‘We were waiting for you in Moscow. I know that unexpected events caused these plans to change, but as I said before, nothing can hinder the development of our friendly relations.’
Putin then added, ‘But the next meeting must be in Moscow.’ The Crown Prince, through a Russian translator, said he was ready to visit Moscow at the earliest opportunity. Putin replied, ‘Then we have an agreement.’ It is likely that this trip is a reaction to the sanctions imposed on Russia and Putin, alongside the sanctions for the attack on Ukraine. Putin has not traveled to any Middle Eastern country since July 2022 when he visited Iran to meet with the leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei.
On Thursday, the Russian parliament set the date for the next presidential election: March 17, 2024. Putin has not yet announced whether he will run again, but it is expected that he will announce it in the coming days and win the election. Thanks to constitutional reforms carried out at his behest, he can run for two more six-year terms after his current presidential term ends next year, and given the suppression of opposition and the authoritarian control of Putin’s party over the Russian political system, it is unlikely that the election will yield different results.
