Qatar: The New Mediator in the Region
Israel and Hamas: Ceasefire Without Peace
Qatar, the new mediator in the region, has brokered a four-day ceasefire and the release of 50 hostages in a fragile agreement between Israel and Hamas. Netanyahu warns this is not the end of the conflict. The four-day suspension of hostilities and the release of 50 hostages, including women and children, as well as the release of 150 Palestinians, including women and children imprisoned in Israeli jails, marks the first temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after 47 days of war, mediated by Qatar and supported by the United States.
A turning point anticipated with rumors and long hours of waiting in Gaza and Israel was finally announced by the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs. According to this agreement, the cessation of hostilities will last four days and can be extended. The ceasefire took effect at 10 a.m. on November 23, and the release of the first group of hostages is planned. It is likely that with the extension of the temporary halt in Israeli military operations, more hostages will be freed. This agreement also facilitates the daily entry of hundreds of trucks carrying humanitarian and medical aid, as well as fuel, into Gaza.
Ultimately, the agreement predicts that reconnaissance flights and drones will be halted for at least six hours a day in northern Gaza, while in the south, this restriction will be in place for the entire duration of the ceasefire. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the agreement is the result of tireless diplomacy and relentless efforts by the U.S. Department of State and government. However, he warned that even if it is an important milestone, peace will not be achieved as long as Hamas continues to take hostages in Gaza.
Ceasefire Start Time
On Wednesday, Hamas officials told Al Jazeera that the ceasefire would be implemented at 10 a.m. local time on November 23. According to these sources, most of the hostages to be released are women and children, but it is unclear if there will be any foreign nationals or dual citizens among them. The agreed ratio is the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for each group of 50 Israeli hostages. There are no adult men on this list.
It is currently unclear whether the cessation of hostilities will also affect the northern front on the border with Lebanon. Hezbollah officials told Al Jazeera that they did not participate in the negotiations, but the movement is committed to stopping the war as long as Israel also respects and commits to the agreement.
These sources noted that Hezbollah will stop targeting Israeli territories from southern Lebanon if the Israeli occupying forces adhere to the temporary ceasefire, adding that otherwise, Israel will receive a harsh response from us. Meanwhile, on November 22, during the waiting hours for the agreement’s implementation, an Israeli armed forces raid on a residential building in the city of Khan Yunis in central Gaza Strip resulted in the death of 17 people.
Agreement Causes Rift Among Right-Wingers in Bibi’s Cabinet
After a nearly seven-hour session, Israel’s war cabinet approved the agreement, where far-right voices were loud. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, one of the staunch opponents of the agreement, described it as a complete disaster.
However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to secure the necessary votes for the agreement’s approval thanks to the moderate Benny Gantz joining the executive branch. It is also worth noting the increasing pressure from the families of the hostages, who openly accused the government of treating their loved ones as a secondary matter, also played a role in the agreement’s approval.
At a press conference, Netanyahu assured that Israel would continue its war against Hamas after the ceasefire ends to bring back all abductees, eliminate Hamas, and ensure no more threats from Gaza against Israel. The Prime Minister, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Benny Gantz are authorized to decide when the ceasefire ends, provided it is not extended beyond ten days.
A Milestone, Not an End
If this agreement represents the most significant political milestone since the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, it does not mean the end of the war. In fact, hostilities could resume with greater intensity once both sides have had time to regroup. However, there is hope that the pause in the war will encourage mediators and the parties involved to strive for a permanent cessation of violence.
In recent weeks, U.S. pressure on Netanyahu and Israel’s war cabinet has increased due to growing concerns among the American public and Democratic Party supporters about the high civilian casualties in Gaza.
According to Simon Tisdall in The Guardian column, an agreement allows Biden to counter criticisms from countries in the Global South regarding U.S. policies and reduce tensions with European allies. Meanwhile, the agreement deprives America’s adversaries of an excuse. On Wednesday, during a virtual BRICS meeting, leaders of emerging countries once again emphasized the need for an immediate ceasefire and condemned Israel’s disproportionate response to Gaza.
In his speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping, for the first time since the conflict began, emphasized that the right to exist for Palestine and the right of return for the Palestinian people have long been ignored. The Chinese leader also highlighted the need for an international peace conference to end the war and reiterated during the same speech, widely covered by Arab world media, that lasting peace and security in the Middle East will not exist without a just solution to the Palestinian issue.
To mediate between Hamas and Israel, Qatar uses a network of irreconcilable political relationships: Hamas and its leadership in Doha, Iran, which arms and trains the Palestinian armed movement, and the United States. Then there is the matter of the relationship with Israel. Although Qatar does not have formal diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv, it had political relations with Israel even before the Abraham Accords. Israelis had a trade office in Doha, and for years, Qatar’s financial aid to the Gaza Strip was approved.
Now, due to concerns about the outbreak of war in the Middle East, Qatar is mediating primarily to contain the conflict, not just to gain international credibility, as it is well aware that the spread of conflict in the region would harm the economies of Gulf countries. However, in this exercise of diplomatic balancing, Doha knows that the toughest challenge will begin once all hostages are freed, as it must decide how its relationship with Hamas will proceed after the October 7 attack.
