Raisi’s Achievement: 84% Housing Inflation
Raisi’s Achievement: 84% Housing Inflation. According to Iran Gate, the Statistical Center of Iran reported that the point-to-point housing inflation in Tehran in September 2023 exceeded 84%. Additionally, the average price per square meter of housing in Tehran has been announced to be over 80 million tomans. In other words, housing inflation has been more than 40% higher than the general inflation rate in the country, and Tehran residents are facing housing difficulties more than ever.
After a 9-month hiatus, the Statistical Center of Iran finally released the housing market report. This report reveals harsh realities indicating a very dire situation and a decrease in citizens’ purchasing power in the housing market. The point-to-point housing inflation in September 2023 compared to the same period last year has been recorded at over 84%. These figures explain why the Raisi government’s Statistical Center refrained from releasing the housing market report over the past 9 months. The government had promised to build 4 million housing units, but not only has it failed to fulfill this promise, but housing production has also dropped to about half of the figures from 2020.
9-Month Statistical Imprisonment
Contrary to the law, the government of Ebrahim Raisi refrained from releasing the housing market report throughout the past 9 months and the entire year 2023. Meanwhile, the publication of reports like the Central Bank’s monthly inflation report and even the Statistical Center’s report has been accompanied by significant irregularities and ambiguities over the past year. However, the release of the Statistical Center’s report last week finally revealed the reason behind the 9-month statistical imprisonment caused by the Raisi government.
What Does the Statistical Center Report Say?
According to the report released by the Statistical Center of Iran on the housing market status, the average price per square meter of housing in Tehran has reached over 80 million tomans. This is while the last report published by the Statistical Center indicated a price of 45 million tomans per square meter in the capital.
Thus, a rough calculation shows that the point-to-point housing inflation in September 2023 has exceeded 84%, which is unprecedented in modern Iranian history. For example, comparing housing prices in the summer of 2023 with the same period in 2015 shows an increase of more than 20 times. This means that the price per square meter of housing in Tehran has increased more than 20 times over the past 8 years.
While the housing price in 2023 has been recorded at over 80 million tomans, in the summer of 2015, this figure was less than 3.9 million tomans. This means that the purchasing power of Tehran residents in the housing market has decreased more than 20 times over the past 8 years, while the minimum wage has only increased about 6 times during the same period. Comparing these statistics clearly indicates the state of the housing market.
Severe Recession in the Housing Market
According to the Statistical Center’s report, real estate transactions in the summer of 2023 were about half of the transactions during the same period in 2022. This is due to a significant decrease in housing production and uncertainty about the future of housing among citizens and market players. Meanwhile, Raisi and the thirteenth government had promised to control housing prices in the country by increasing production and to provide housing for young people.
However, transaction statistics show that the number of transactions in the spring of 2023 fell to less than one-third of the transaction levels in the same period of 2022. This means that in a season where real estate transactions peak, Tehran residents neither had the ability to buy housing nor, if financially able, felt confident in the market to make transactions. Currently, despite the jumps in the dollar rate in the currency market, we are still witnessing a severe recession in the housing market due to uncertainty about the future of the country’s economy and the lack of purchasing power among property seekers in the market.
What Happened to Raisi’s 4 Million Housing Units?
The promise of Ebrahim Raisi to build 4 million housing units during his 4-year presidency has been repeatedly discussed in domestic and foreign media. This promise was made while economists warned of its impracticality and accused Raisi of populism. However, Raisi, known as the champion of the underprivileged, not only insisted on the feasibility of his promise but also claimed to have a several-hundred-page plan that he would implement if elected, saving the country’s economy.
Now, more than two years have passed since the start of Ebrahim Raisi’s government, but none of the economic indicators have improved, and almost all factors indicate worsening living conditions for citizens. The evidence from the housing market available to media suggests a deep gap in housing production during Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency.
200,000 Units Instead of 4 Million Housing Units
The gap that was supposed to be filled by building 4 million housing units, but the Interior Minister, while inaugurating a 140-unit apartment complex project last week, spoke of the importance and magnitude of this project. This is while even if the government succeeded in implementing such large-scale projects daily, only 52,000 apartment units would be built by the end of the year. This means that during Ebrahim Raisi’s 4-year presidency, about 200,000 units would be constructed, which is one-twentieth of the amount Raisi promised to build during his theatrical 2021 election campaign.
