Strategic Warnings on the End of the Ukraine War
Threats and Opportunities for Europe
In May 1945, the end of World War II in Europe allowed Soviet power to extend to the streets of Berlin.
The Red Army had paved its way there as part of the broader Allied effort to defeat Nazi Germany.
Now, 80 years later, the end of the Russia-Ukraine war could once again enable Moscow to extend its power westward.
This could happen through a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, orchestrated under U.S. pressure, which would temporarily end the conflict but reward Russian aggression and leave open the possibility of renewed conflict once Moscow rebuilds its forces.
Although the likelihood of Russian tanks moving westward is probably limited, Moscow is already engaging in cross-border assassinations, cyber interventions, sabotage, and other violent actions without a full-scale military attack.
These actions are likely to escalate and increase the risk of conflict escalation.
Worse still, any future Russian move westward would occur in opposition to Western European democracies, not in alliance with them, and amid the dangerous backdrop of U.S. withdrawal from Europe.
In this context, the precise terms of any agreement to end the conflict, whether a ceasefire or a peace treaty, are of great importance.
Unfortunately, the best scenario for Ukraine is no longer available; NATO membership remains a distant dream, and there is no ready substitute for the security guarantees that NATO membership could provide.
However, at least a worst-case scenario that is somewhat acceptable still exists: an agreement that does not formally recognize the border changes imposed by Russia on Ukraine.
Much depends on whether the Trump administration chooses this scenario or one with far worse consequences for Europe and the global order.
Anniversary as a Motivating Factor
Given that the full-scale invasion began more than three years ago, it may not be immediately clear why this issue has suddenly become urgent.
The reason is that Donald Trump has recently called for some kind of ceasefire or peace agreement in the near future, at one point asking for it to happen by the end of the first week of May.
It may not be a coincidence that at the same time, Moscow is celebrating the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II against the Nazis.
Vladimir Putin will preside over a military parade attended by guests like Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the President of Brazil, Robert Fico, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, and most notably, Xi Jinping, the President of China.
Xi’s willingness to spend what Putin calls a ‘sacred holiday’ in Russia is a very clear endorsement of his continued support for Moscow.
These parades are held annually and are a sign that the defeat of Nazi Germany still forms a core part of Russia’s self-perception as a great power, but the combination of three factors—the 80th anniversary of the victory, the recent signing of a minerals agreement between Kyiv and Washington, and Xi Jinping’s presence—gives this year’s event added significance.
In response to Trump’s calls for some kind of end to the bloodshed in Ukraine, Putin has already announced that he will declare a temporary ceasefire during the commemorative events.
Putin’s goal appears not necessarily to be sympathy for Ukrainians but rather to simultaneously manage a set of related problems.
This announcement allows him to seem responsive to Trump’s request while also enabling the Russian leader to portray Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a threat to a sacred holiday if he violates the ceasefire.
Temporary Ceasefire and Geopolitical Games
While Trump has called for an immediate ceasefire, Putin, by announcing a temporary ceasefire during the military parades, appears to be responding to this request.
This move allows him to present Zelensky as someone who might threaten Russia’s sacred holiday by violating the ceasefire.
Strategic Implications for Europe
In the event of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia under U.S. pressure, Russia might informally accept border changes, which could be seen as a reward for Russian aggression. This could set the stage for future conflicts.
Risks of Increased Tensions
While the likelihood of a Russian military move westward is limited, non-military actions such as cross-border assassinations, cyber interventions, and sabotage are on the rise. These actions could lead to increased tensions and a higher likelihood of military conflicts.
Strategic Challenges for Europe
Any Russian move westward, in the context of the U.S. reducing its presence in Europe, could pose a threat to Western European democracies.
This necessitates a reassessment of Europe’s defense and security strategies.
