Earthquake in Sudanese Popular Mobilization hits the heart of Kata’ib commanders
Earthquake in Sudanese Popular Mobilization hits the heart of Kata’ib commanders
The following report, based on information and analyses published by the Iran Gate news agency, examines one of the most significant recent security and political developments in Iraq. This development involves Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani directly confronting one of the most powerful Shia militia groups, Kata’ib Hezbollah, for the first time. The unprecedented action of dismissing commanders affiliated with this group and the intense reciprocal reactions mark a turning point in the balance of power between the central government and the Popular Mobilization Forces.
This report reviews the field events and analyzes the political and security dimensions and potential consequences of this confrontation.
Increased tension between the Iraqi government and Kata’ib Hezbollah marks a shift in the internal power balance.
In an unprecedented move, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani recently dismissed two senior commanders from brigades affiliated with Kata’ib Hezbollah, who enjoy the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This action not only had widespread domestic repercussions but was also seen as an indication of a shift in the government’s approach to dealing with influential militia groups.
The Iraqi Prime Minister’s office issued an official statement declaring that this decision was made after investigations into recent events in Baghdad.
According to the findings of this investigation, forces affiliated with Kata’ib Hezbollah engaged in military activities without official authorization and opened fire on police forces during clashes.
This incident resulted in the deaths of at least two people, including a police officer, and injured twelve others.
This event is considered one of the most serious instances of open confrontation between the Prime Minister and the powerful Popular Mobilization Forces, particularly Kata’ib Hezbollah.
A group that has played a pivotal role in the fight against ISIS in recent years and has gained a powerful position in Iraq’s military-security structure.
Judicial actions and responses from militia groups
Following the clashes on July 27, the Iraqi Army’s Security Media Center announced the arrest of 14 individuals affiliated with Kata’ib Hezbollah and stated that their cases have been referred to the judiciary for legal proceedings.
Subsequently, the Popular Mobilization Organization issued a statement declaring that it would not tolerate any disobedience to instructions or violations of security laws, while simultaneously attempting to distance itself from Kata’ib Hezbollah to maintain an image of internal cohesion.
In response, Kata’ib Hezbollah completely denied any involvement in these clashes and claimed that the recent events were part of a foreign conspiracy aimed at disrupting Iraq’s national unity and exacerbating intra-governmental conflicts.
The group, referring to the ‘Embassy of Evil’—a euphemism for the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad—accused Western media and circles of inciting the current tense atmosphere.
In another statement on August 10, Kata’ib Hezbollah claimed that the results of the government investigation were distorted and designed to misuse power against this group and other key figures in the Popular Mobilization Forces.
The group called for judicial intervention to uncover the truth and prevent the political engineering of the case.
From political tension to a war of narratives
With the prolonged detention of its forces and the lack of a satisfactory response from the government, Kata’ib Hezbollah entered a phase of direct political attack on al-Sudani.
In a harsh statement, the group declared that although the Prime Minister is a capable manager, he will never be recognized as a successful leader. Simultaneously, the Shia Coordination Framework coalition was urged to prevent the Prime Minister’s unbalanced and dangerous decisions.
On August 11, the group issued a warning tone, calling for immediate action to maintain Iraq’s security and protect sacred sites until the end of al-Sudani’s premiership.
These stances indicate that Kata’ib Hezbollah has escalated the tension with the government to an unprecedented level and is striving to effect political changes.
Dispute over the presence of American troops
Another point of contention between al-Sudani’s government and militia groups is the issue of the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq.
Kata’ib Hezbollah has repeatedly demanded the complete expulsion of American forces and even threatened reciprocal actions if this demand is not met.
This is while the Iraqi government and the United States reached an agreement in September 2024 on the timeline for troop withdrawal, but reports of potential delays in this process have heightened concerns.
Abu Ali al-Askari, a senior figure in Kata’ib Hezbollah, warned on July 23 that failure to adhere to the agreement on the expulsion of foreign forces would have serious consequences.
He implicitly accused al-Sudani of deviating from internal agreements and called for immediate action to implement the announced promises.
Possible future scenarios
Some analysts believe that with the continuation of this trend, there is a possibility of street protests by supporters of militia groups similar to what happened in 2022 against Mustafa al-Kadhimi.
At that time, Kata’ib Hezbollah threatened to arrest al-Kadhimi, and the Nujaba Movement called him a traitor. These tensions even led to a drone attack on the residence of the then Prime Minister.
Warnings about the possibility of a similar scenario against al-Sudani have also increased. Some officials from the State of Law Coalition, led by Nouri al-Maliki, have spoken of foreign powers’ efforts to push the government towards direct confrontation with militia forces.
They emphasize that if intra-Shia conflict arises, Iraq may reach the brink of collapse, and even the scenario of forming an emergency government might be considered.
Analysis of al-Sudani’s political future
With increasing tensions within the ruling coalition, some observers believe that political divides within the Coordination Framework will gradually deepen.
In this context, figures like Muqtada al-Sadr, who had previously withdrawn from politics, might return to the scene.
If al-Sadr decides to support al-Sudani’s bloc in the upcoming elections, the balance of power in Iraq’s next parliament could change significantly.
Such a change could facilitate al-Sudani’s path to removing armed groups from the official political arena and pave the way for consolidating central government authority.
