Survival Crisis for Hamas: Uncertainty in Iran’s Support
Survival Crisis for Hamas: Uncertainty in Iran’s Support
The Hamas movement is now engaged in a struggle for survival. A large number of its senior leaders have been killed, its major underground network has been destroyed, and there is no longer any certainty about the continued support from the Islamic Republic of Iran.
On one hand, it faces opposition and rebellion from some tribes, and on the other, it is confronted with heavy and continuous pressure from the Israeli army.
According to a report published by Reuters on Friday, June 26, three informed sources close to Hamas stated that Israel openly supports local tribes opposed to this movement.
While this Islamist group tries to maintain its political and military survival, it has ordered its forces to continue resisting even under difficult conditions.
One informed source has said that with the increase in the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, international pressures for stopping the conflicts have risen, and Hamas is in urgent need of an opportunity to regroup.
He explains that a ceasefire not only gives the exhausted and dissatisfied residents of Gaza, who are criticizing Hamas’s performance, a chance to breathe but also provides this group the opportunity to suppress rebellious elements, including local tribes and profiteers who have looted humanitarian aid.
According to the Reuters report, Hamas has tried to confront a threat named Yasser Abu Shabab, a rogue leader whose presence in Rafah, an area occupied by Israeli forces, has made access to him difficult.
In this regard, high-ranking commanders have been dispatched to eliminate him.
While preparing this report, Reuters spoke with 16 individuals, including Israeli officials, diplomats, and people close to Hamas, and provided a picture of a severely weakened movement.
Despite the severe blows, Hamas still has some operational capability and influence in Gaza but is clearly facing widespread crises.
This group is still capable of carrying out attacks; for example, in an attack in southern Gaza, seven Israeli soldiers were killed.
However, three regional diplomats told Reuters that intelligence analyses indicate Hamas has lost its centralized control, and its operations have been limited to scattered and surprise actions.
An Israeli military commander has estimated that so far, the country’s army has killed over 20,000 Hamas forces and destroyed hundreds of kilometers of the group’s tunnels.
Vast areas of the Gaza Strip have been almost completely destroyed during about 20 months of war.
According to an Israeli security official, the average age of Hamas forces is decreasing, and the group is now recruiting poor, displaced, and unemployed youth to compensate for its losses. Official figures of Hamas casualties are not published.
A 57-year-old worker in Gaza City told Reuters that Hamas members are forced to stay hidden because if they appear, they are immediately targeted by airstrikes.
However, they are occasionally seen acting to protect aid trucks, organize queues, or confront criminals.
He adds, ‘They are not like they used to be, but they are still present.’
Sami Abu Zuhri, a senior figure in Hamas, told Reuters that the movement is seeking an agreement to stop the war but will not accept surrender.
He emphasized that Hamas is ready to release all Israeli hostages, provided that Israeli attacks stop and its forces withdraw from Gaza.
Israel says Hamas is now just a shadow of the force that attacked Israel in 1402, killing over 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.
According to Reuters’s assessment, the blows dealt to Hamas during this period have been unprecedented, and the group has never experienced such a collapse.
Most of Hamas’s senior commanders in the Gaza Strip have been killed. This group, founded in 1987, gradually gained power in competition with the Fatah movement and took control of Gaza in 2007.
Simultaneously with the formation of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel mediated by the United States, hopes for an agreement in Gaza that could lead to the release of hostages and the end of the war have increased.
According to a source close to Hamas, even a temporary ceasefire could enable the group to confront the threat of local tribes, but he also emphasizes that Netanyahu’s conditions, including the complete departure of Hamas leaders from Gaza, amount to a total defeat, which this movement will never accept.
He clarifies, ‘We are faithful to our beliefs, but the realities say otherwise.’
Yezid Sayigh, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center, says Hamas is trying to survive. He continues that this battle is not just a military battle but, more than anything, a political challenge for this group.
In response to Reuters’s questions, he wrote that the continuation of the war could lead to the removal of Hamas from the Gaza scene, but the end of the conflict could also result in the group’s removal from any governing structure after the war.
Meanwhile, armed Palestinian tribes have emerged as a new strategic tool for Israel against Hamas. Netanyahu has openly announced that he supports anti-Hamas groups with weapons, although he refrains from specifically naming these tribes.
One of the main challenges for Hamas is a group led by Abu Shabab in Rafah. Sources close to Hamas have accused him of collaborating with Israel and planning attacks and have called for his arrest or physical elimination.
This group controls parts of eastern Rafah and is said to have relative freedom of action in that area. Images released on social media show that the armed forces of this group are protecting aid trucks at the Kerem Shalom crossing.
In statements from the Abu Shabab group, it is stated that their goal is to establish a semi-autonomous region in Rafah. They have asked the displaced residents of Rafah to return and promised to provide food and shelter.
In response to Reuters’s questions, this group has denied receiving support from Israel and introduced themselves as a popular force whose sole aim is to protect humanitarian aid from looting. They have also accused Hamas of committing violence against opponents.
A security official in Gaza has warned that the security forces of this group will decisively deal with networks associated with Abu Shabab and will show no leniency as they consider them a cause of disorder and insecurity.
Palestinian analyst Akram Atallah also believes that the emergence of Abu Shabab is due to Hamas’s weakness, but he suspects this group will ultimately fail because Palestinian public opinion does not accept collaboration with Israel.
He adds, ‘Even if this group is small, the presence of an enemy from within one’s own community is dangerous.’
At the same time, Israeli attacks on Iran have cast a shadow over the future of Tehran’s support for Hamas. Iran’s previous support played a significant role in developing Hamas’s combat capabilities and included missile and drone technologies.
Despite claims of victory by both sides in the recent 12-day war, Netanyahu has stated that attacking Iran will expedite the release of hostages.
Donald Trump has also announced that positive developments are happening in Gaza and has considered the attack on Iran as a factor that strengthens the process of freeing hostages.
A source close to Hamas has stated that the movement is evaluating the potential consequences of the reduction in support from the Islamic Republic of Iran and believes that this issue could affect the methods of financial sourcing and the transfer of technical knowledge that Tehran provided to Hamas and other resistance groups.
Among the targets of recent Israeli attacks on Iranian soil was a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who was responsible for communication and coordination with Hamas.
Israeli officials announced that Saeed Izadi, whose death was reported on Saturday, June 20, was considered one of the main pillars linking the Islamic Republic and Hamas.
The Hamas movement also issued a statement remembering him as a close comrade and announced that he was directly responsible for interacting with Palestinian resistance leaders. In this statement, condolences were also extended to Iran on behalf of Hamas.
A source affiliated with one of Iran’s allied groups told Reuters that Saeed Izadi played a key role in advancing Hamas’s military capabilities, including in planning complex combined operations, missile launches, infiltration into enemy positions, and the use of drones.
In response to the question of whether Israeli military attacks on Iranian soil might affect Tehran’s support for Hamas, Sami Abu Zuhri, a senior Hamas official, replied that the Islamic Republic is a powerful and deeply rooted country, and such actions cannot bring it to its knees or prevent it from supporting the resistance movement.
