The Advance of the Far Right in France
The advance of the far right in France saw Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party and Jordan Bardella win the first round of the French parliamentary elections on Sunday, June 30. After their victory in the European parliamentary elections, they once again asserted themselves as the dominant political force in the Republic. Following the highest voter turnout in recent French history, an unprecedented 66% of eligible voters participated. The future structure of the parliament is still unclear and undecided.
Three major political blocs competed in this election: the far-right National Rally, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition, and the new People’s Front coalition consisting of center-left, green, and leftist forces.
In the first round, based on the final results, 76 out of 577 representatives were elected. The far-right National Rally party of France, after securing over 33% of the votes and a significant victory in the first round of parliamentary elections, is now aiming for a majority. Emmanuel Macron called on the left-wing coalition, which came in second, to cooperate with his centrist coalition to prevent a far-right majority. European politicians have shown varied reactions to this party’s electoral achievement.
Of course, everything will be decided in the second round, scheduled for July 7. Currently, it is predicted that the National Rally party could secure between 260 to 310 seats. Given that 289 seats are needed for an absolute majority in the assembly, the risk remains very high.
Jordan Bardella promises that change is within reach, stating, ‘I will be the prime minister for everyone.’ Meanwhile, Macron, who has lost a relative majority, announced that the time has come for a broad democratic and republican alliance. Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the Social Democrat party says the left front, which is supported by a good result and holds 28% of the votes in second place, has agreed to withdraw its candidacy in areas where it ranks third.
Raphaël Glucksmann says, ‘We will support the candidate who can defeat the National Rally. We have seven days to prevent disaster. By tomorrow, candidates must decide whether to withdraw from the second round, which will be held on Sunday in the electoral districts.’
The Password of Resistance
The final outcome of the vote will be determined by the ability of the centrist and left forces to reach an agreement. In fact, according to the French electoral system, a candidate wins in the first round if they obtain 50% plus one of the votes from at least 25% of the voters in an electoral district. Otherwise, all those who obtained at least 12.5% of the registered voters’ votes in the first round—not the voters themselves—enter the second round.
Usually, two candidates advance to the second round, but in this case, the high voter turnout has favored the so-called triangular situation, making resistance crucial to counter the National Rally. This means that to stop Le Pen’s party, one of the candidates from the other two political forces must voluntarily decide to withdraw and support the convergence of votes on the only remaining candidate in the race.
Mélenchon clearly stated that our goal is clear: not a single vote and not a single seat more for the National Rally. In the second round, our candidates will withdraw in areas where a National Rally candidate came first and they came third.
Macron, for his part, confirmed that even candidates from ‘Ensemble’—which means ‘together’ and is a liberal political coalition in France created by Emmanuel Macron—who come in third will step aside, though not always. In cases where a candidate from the far-left Social Democrat party of France comes in second, it will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.
Possible Scenarios
Political analysts and observers more or less agree on the scenarios that lie ahead after July 7. The first scenario is the one that current polls consider more likely, predicting that the National Rally party will win but not reach the 289 seats that guarantee a parliamentary majority. Bardella has previously stated that he does not intend to govern unless he immediately gains a majority. In this case, Macron can appoint a prime minister who will act as a temporary steward before returning to the polls, but not before June 2025.
The second scenario is a decisive victory for the National Rally. In that case, Bardella would become prime minister. This would not be new; France has previously experienced periods of cohabitation when the president and prime minister come from different parties. However, this has always involved relatively direct cooperation between parties with similar worldviews. But in this case, a far-right prime minister in clear ideological opposition to the president would undermine the political order and pose a risk of institutional paralysis.
There is also a third possibility: a surprising victory without a majority for the left front. Even in this case, the result would lead to an unmanageable National Assembly.
Is Europe Wavering?
Rarely have elections in France caused fear and concern beyond its borders. Not only is the National Rally’s program incompatible with France remaining in the European Union and NATO, despite efforts to present itself as a responsible political force, but Marine Le Pen has explicitly stated that in the event of forced cohabitation, the National Rally will not allow Macron to pursue the country’s strategic direction and agenda. This prospect terrifies European partners. According to the French constitution, the president is the head of the armed forces and deals with foreign policy, but a closer look presents a much more complex picture.
A parliamentary majority for Le Pen gives her the chance to exert significant influence through the passage of the budget law. In other words, a parliament with a far-right majority could block financial aid for supporting Ukraine, funding for common defense, and the selection of new European leaders. Macron’s camp argues that when the budget law faced unsolvable opposition in the fall, confrontation with the National Rally and early elections seemed inevitable.
A close aide to the Élysée explained that holding the vote now was less damaging. According to our polls, an absolute majority for the National Rally by October was inevitable, so attempts to change course were necessary but may have just happened sooner than expected. Macron, in a letter to the French people published a week ago, said that whoever wins, he will not resign from the presidency and will remain in this position until the end of his presidential term in 2027.
It can be said that this is the end of the Macronism we have known so far, and this is regardless of the results of the second round. Macron and the left promise to withdraw their candidate in many areas where they have come third to save what can be saved.
The effort is to prevent the National Assembly from achieving an absolute majority in parliament. If they succeed, a very uncertain and entirely new period awaits France and Europe. The European financial markets, Western support for Ukraine, and France’s nuclear and military power are all potentially affected by the results of this election.
Of course, this uncertainty will remain because if they do not achieve an absolute majority, Macron will have to choose an inevitably weak prime minister to hold out until new early elections, not before June 2025. The assumption is that in any case, conditions are moving towards a disorder.
