The Death of the JCPOA: A Return to Square One
The death of the JCPOA is a return to square one, while Europeans were constantly optimistic about reaching an agreement, and Western, mainly Israeli, media were leaking details of the multi-stage agreement quietly on the Iranian side. However, it now seems that not only is there no sign of a white smoke of agreement, but the reactions of the Iranian and American sides are so opposite that it seems they have diverged more than converged.
Iran claims that the text sent in response to the U.S. was prepared with a constructive approach, but the American side has completely contrary stated that unfortunately, Iran’s response to the JCPOA revival agreement text is not constructive.
Another official from the Biden administration has said it seems we are moving backward. Another has said Iran’s response does not look good at all. The American magazine Politico also reported that the U.S. has labeled Iran’s response as a setback, and now the nuclear negotiations are in danger of collapsing.
Who is responsible for an agreement that was claimed to be close to fruition but is now nearing a game over stage again? Is it America’s excessive demands, the victory of the Israeli lobby, or Iran’s hesitation and insistence? Maybe it’s all three.
Iran’s Mistaken Tactics
Were Iran’s tactics in prolonging the negotiations mistaken? The Rouhani administration claimed it was on the verge of reviving the JCPOA when the conservative parliament, with its nuclear resolution in 2020, overturned the table. The power structure also seemingly had no desire for the JCPOA to be revived by the same government that had created it. With the arrival of the Raisi administration, the start of negotiations was deliberately postponed repeatedly. With Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Iran thought it now had a trump card, as the West was busy with disputes with Russia, and the energy crisis in Europe would ultimately benefit Iran.
It seems Iran had placed special emphasis on the fuel crisis in Europe, and for this reason, Europeans likely showed more willingness to resolve the JCPOA issue during this time and constantly expressed optimism.
This is while if the issue of Iran’s sanctions is to be resolved so it can supply part of Europe’s fuel for this winter, the time to solve the problem is right now. If more time is wasted, firstly, Europe will consider alternative measures to align its consumption with the level of fuel supply and will not wait for the negotiation results. Secondly, there will not be enough time to prepare and create the necessary infrastructure to sell and deliver fuel to Europe.
Hamid Aboutalebi, who was a political advisor in the Rouhani administration, tweeted, referring to these delays, that the cold of Europe’s winter is not so much linked to the freezing winter of Iran’s economy. History first writes how Europe’s winter passed and why Iran’s economic freeze has become so persistent.
It will then judge which countries acted successfully and correctly in securing their people’s interests. A year passed with the tactic of prolonging nuclear negotiations. The second year of the government also began with the tactic of throwing the ball into the other side’s court, which may take months. Then entering the election discussion pollutes the political space, and no agreement will be possible. Is direct negotiation not the only solution?
The Death of the JCPOA in Favor of the Abraham Accords
Israel has repeatedly said it opposes the JCPOA revival and does not consider itself obligated or committed to it if it comes to fruition. In recent weeks, interactions between Israeli political-security officials and Americans on the Iran nuclear agreement have intensified. Now, Reza Nasri, an international law expert, has said that the main rival of the JCPOA in the region is the Abraham Accords led by Israel, and they will benefit the most from the JCPOA’s demise. Reza Nasri, an expert in international relations, said, ‘I believe the JCPOA is a serious competitor to the Abraham Accords.’
In fact, a new regional order will be shaped either around the JCPOA led by Iran or around the Abraham Accords led by Israel. If Iran hesitates in concluding the JCPOA and then initiating a new indigenous order with neighboring countries, Israel will quickly weave the Abraham Accords like a spider’s web around Iran, isolating it politically, economically, and security-wise.
Last week, the former head of Israel’s National Security Council, referring to the return of the UAE ambassador to Tehran, said that signing a nuclear agreement with Iran would affect the normalization agreements of this regime with Arab countries, or the Abraham Accords, which were actually made to counter Iran’s influence.
Divergence Instead of Convergence
Previously, media unofficially published a text that included part of the lengthy U.S. response to Iran’s questions, showing that many of Iran’s important demands were not accepted by the U.S. Most likely, Iran insisted on its demands again and sent the same to the U.S.
The U.S. did not accept three major Iranian demands related to the activities of foreign companies, non-sanctioning of multinational companies, and Iran’s entry into SWIFT, and did not provide guarantees about them. On the other hand, the U.S. claimed that Iran had backed down from some of its demands, such as the requirement to remove the IRGC from the terrorist list.
Iran also wanted a strong guarantee from the U.S. not to withdraw from the agreement. It seems that neither is willing to compromise on their demands, and rather than leading to convergence, their negotiations have led to divergence.
Now, with the potential delay and renewed prolongation of the negotiation process, one should expect a new obstacle to be added to the previous ones. Ali Vaez, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group on Iran, also said that with the current opportunity lost, it is difficult to imagine that an agreement could be reached before the U.S. midterm congressional elections. The election issue has always been a new obstacle to the conclusion of the Iran nuclear agreement, with opponents of the JCPOA revival having the upper hand in the U.S. Congress.
