The Decline of the Islamic Republic in Governance

The decline of the Islamic Republic in governance

The decline of the Islamic Republic in governance

The widespread wave of despair among those who believed in the invincibility of the coalition under the leadership of the Islamic Republic in the Middle East, both inside and outside Iran, is observable. The fall of the Ba’ath regime in Syria, perceived as a sign of the power of the resistance front, has not only reduced the extent of Iran’s government influence but has also emboldened its rivals.

Followers of Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, are facing the bitter reality that their strategic calculations may have been overly optimistic, leading to a crisis of confidence in the leadership’s ability and dominance.

Furthermore, the consequences could extend beyond Syria. The possibility of the emergence of a semi-democratic or Sunni-led government could alter the balance of power in the region and further isolate the Islamic Republic and its allies.

In another scenario, concerns about the resurgence of Sunni extremism also exist, which could threaten stability within Iran.

In the wake of these developments, the social institution of the Guardianship of the Jurist is grappling with despair.

Some supporters of this institution have questioned the effectiveness of Iran’s foreign policy, leading to increased calls for a reassessment.

As the situation calms down, it remains to be seen how Khamenei will consolidate his support base and address growing concerns in dealing with rapidly changing regional dynamics.

The emergence of despair due to the fall of Bashar al-Assad, the deposed president of Syria, may act as a catalyst for change in both strategy and ideology among Khamenei’s followers, as they face the complex realities of the Middle East post-Assad’s rule.

The consequences of these developments go beyond foreign policy and impact internal conflicts between the government and the majority of Iranian citizens seeking structural changes in governance. After Assad’s escape, psychological factors have shifted in favor of the people in their political struggle against the Islamic Republic of Iran. This variable can play a significant role in shaping behaviors and attitudes to overcome obstacles.

Weakening of the Islamic Republic government’s position

The weakening of the power of the Islamic Republic and its successive failures cause more individuals to conclude that the government is in a weaker position to impose intimidation and repression, and is experiencing cognitive and perceptual disruptions. In addition, opponents gain more self-confidence to strengthen resistance and promote collective identity to urge individuals to act against the misleading propaganda and misinformation spread by Khamenei’s organizations.

This new wave of hope among opponents, along with the passive tremors and detachment in some followers of the Velayat-e Faqih institution, strengthens the possibility of a more powerful social movement in Iran. It focuses on inspiring hope and fostering unity among people to break free from the inefficient government that has put Iran in a precarious situation both internally and externally.

The dimensions of dissatisfaction and despair among supporters of the system are not clear, and it is also possible that at least some of it is transient and unsubstantial. Dissatisfaction exists on both sides; some pragmatists see hardline power as the source of the problem, while others doubt the correctness of the fundamental policy principle.

Unprecedented despair initially surfaced from the Basij Wireless Media, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Information Unit, publicly accusing Khamenei of passivity in response to Israel’s attack on Iran. Although the post was quickly deleted and the editorial board apologized for such unexpected criticism of Khamenei within the internal circle, it indicated that dissatisfaction with the decisions of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic is growing among extremist and moderate factions on one side, and independent and opposition sectors of society on the other.

Another sign indicating the erosion of sanctity and authority of Khamenei was a warning note from Tasnim News Agency, another media outlet associated with the Revolutionary Guard, emphasizing the importance of swiftly aligning actions with the directives of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic.

This note suggests not deviating from obedience to him, whether from the right or the left. Additionally, Hadi Zarai, a member of the Quds Force in Syria, spoke more explicitly in a video interview about the wrongdoings of the Iranian government in Syria and pointed out how the IRGC commander has created problems for the country by exaggerating its successes.

In recent weeks, we have seen that the main media outlets affiliated with the institution of the Supreme Leader have made great efforts to reduce the supporters’ grief and emphasize the necessity of not being self-conceited after victory and avoiding despair in the face of defeat, based on the guidelines of Khamenei. They aim to prevent the strengthening of opponents and critics.

However, it seems that these efforts to prevent the weakening of the social base of the institution of the Supreme Leader may be fruitless. Coincidences and, as they say, excessive reliance on factors were among the main reasons for Khamenei’s unstable success in the region, which seems no longer sustainable, and perhaps a reverse trend in the impact of coincidental factors is underway.

Therefore, considering that mental resilience plays a vital role in movements based on civil resistance and collective action, as well as in the inaction of power supporters, it is logical to expect that the process of weakening the government and the fall of supporters due to rapid and surprising developments in the region will accelerate, ultimately leading to the erosion of its repression capabilities.