The Specter of Trump Over Iran’s Economy
The Specter of Trump Over Iran’s Economy
On Saturday night, the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran appeared on state television to provide an analysis of Iran’s currency and economic situation following Trump’s arrival. This move was generally very good and timely, and naturally, it received significant attention. The Governor’s statements were correct in some aspects and incorrect in others. Some correct points, such as the lack of dependency or connection rings with the Western economy, were not necessarily positive and are considered negative.
Incorrect points, such as the claim that Iran’s economy would not be affected by Trump’s election, were said out of necessity to comfort the audience. Of course, Mr. Farzin is not the Foreign Minister or a foreign policy analyst, and it should not be expected for him to make political statements. However, he could have addressed the incorrect parts differently. Perhaps because he is one of the managers of the thirteenth government, he still thinks he must speak in the same frameworks as the previous government, whereas in the new government, one should avoid making unrealistic or unlikely statements and speak honestly with the people.
He believed that the dependency rings of Iran’s economy on the US and even Europe are limited, and we do not have high economic relations with them.
Therefore, the US elections and Trump’s presidency do not have a significant direct impact on Iran’s economy. As we observed after Trump’s election, currency market fluctuations were less than one percent. However, in terms of indirect effects, the US economy is large and impacts the entire world economy. Our currency experienced less than a one percent decrease in value, showing one of the least reactions compared to the currencies of other countries worldwide.
Our economy showed on the very first day that it has high resilience against this event of Trump’s coming to power. Iran’s economy is not the same as it was eight years ago when Trump’s election had a significant impact on it.
It seems that although these statements are somewhat reassuring, they are not realistic on one hand and only analytical and descriptive on the other hand, while people also need policy responses.
In fact, any analyst can make such statements, and people might accept his analysis more. However, for some reasons, people do not have much trust in officials’ analyses, so they should speak about their policies, which was practically absent in this conversation.
The first question that should have been answered for the people is whether Trump will continue the behaviors of eight years ago or if we are facing a different Trump. In any case, what threats and opportunities does Trump pose for Iran’s economy?
There is significant evidence indicating that we should expect a different Trump from the one eight years ago. Yesterday, and only three days after Trump’s victory, an important event occurred.
In his latest stance, Trump explicitly announced that he would not invite Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, or Mike Pompeo, the former Secretary of State, to join the Trump administration, which is currently forming.
We all know that these two, alongside John Bolton, formed the anti-Iranian triangle in Trump’s first administration. They had radical and extremist positions not only regarding Iran but also on other issues, which ultimately led to John Bolton’s separation from Trump, while the other two remained in his administration.
Now Trump has reached a point where not only does he not invite the remaining two to his administration, but he also officially announces it at the first opportunity. This is positive news, especially regarding Trump’s potential stance on Iran.
We do not believe that Trump will necessarily make significant changes. From this perspective, one can assume the worst of his policies and prepare for them. However, the other side of the coin is important too, and we should not close the door on the possibility of more conventional policies from Trump.
If the Governor of the Central Bank had presented such an approach in a substantiated manner based on evidence, it would have played a greater role in calming the mental and psychological atmosphere of the people.
