The conflict between Israel and Iran has exposed Russia’s weakness
The conflict between Israel and Iran has exposed Russia’s weakness
The war between Israel and Iran has brought only short-term benefits for Russia, but in the long term, we are facing much larger problems and negative consequences
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has complained that this war has caused a sharp increase in oil prices, which has benefited Russia
It has also diverted global attention from the war in Ukraine, giving Russia more freedom to carry out attacks against Ukraine
In fact, Russia continues to make progress in Ukraine and is now producing ammunition four times more than NATO
It is easy to understand why some in Russia welcomed the possibility of a regional war in the Middle East
However, this view is misleading; Israel’s ability to attack Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities has exposed Iran’s vulnerabilities
This is important because Russia and Iran signed a strategic cooperation agreement in January 2025, and the anti-Western stances of the two countries are very similar
The overall assessment of Arkady Milman, former Israeli ambassador to Russia, is that the long-term damage to Russia’s interests is greater than the short-term benefits Russia has gained from the Israel-Iran war
Milman said in an interview that Russia needs Iran as a disruptive factor threatening the West, but now Iran’s damaged political system is not in a position to help
Additionally, Moscow has been heavily reliant on the supply of Iranian Shahed 131 and Shahed 136 drones, although Russia has started domestic production of Shahed drones, it likely still needs Iranian supplies
The remains of drones recently found in Ukraine show that Russia continues to benefit from new Iranian technologies used in these drones
Also, in 2024, Iran provided short-range ballistic missiles to Russia to use in the war against Ukraine, and again it seems Russia is looking forward to receiving more shipments
The strategic cooperation agreement did not oblige the Russians to defend Iran, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has explicitly stated this; however, even if Russia wanted to offer such support, it could not do so because it needs ammunition for its own war
Russia still has close cooperation with China; in fact, there are worrying signs that China has increased the supply of parts used in Russian drones employed against Ukraine; however, Russia’s severe need for ammunition has forced it to establish a comprehensive strategic partnership with North Korea
Unlike the agreement with Iran, Russia has committed to providing military and other assistance to North Korea in the event of foreign aggression; Moscow’s increasing reliance on the Pyongyang regime indicates its weakness and has limited its room for maneuver
Russia has been destabilized by the Israel-Iran war and, unlike the United States, has been unable to do anything, having no influence or leverage over the parties involved and merely condemning the unjustified aggression
The emptiness and hollowness of such condemnations, while Russia itself is bombing civilian populations in Ukraine, apparently holds no significance for the Russians
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi went to Moscow immediately after the US attacks to talk with Putin; he thanked Putin for condemning the Israeli and US attacks but left Moscow empty-handed
After Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, the Russians thought that Israel’s intelligence and military failure meant a serious weakening of the country
But Russia, following Israel’s success against Hezbollah in Lebanon and its attacks on Iran’s military capabilities, has been forced to reconsider its view of Israel
Israel has refrained from sending military equipment to Ukraine, and there is no sign of a change in this policy, but Putin may have convinced himself that Israel’s advanced military capabilities might one day reach Ukraine; if Russia ultimately delivers the Su-35 fighter jets that Iran purchased in 2023 to this country, this issue may explain why these aircraft have not yet been delivered to Iran
At the end of 2024, Russia was helplessly watching the fall of its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; although the collapse of the Assad regime was not as damaging to Russia as Iran, it still dealt a serious blow to Russia’s military and commercial interests in Syria
Zelensky did not miss the opportunity to mock Russia’s declining position in the region
He wrote in a post on the social network X, ‘Ayatollah Putin can look at his friends in Iran to see where such regimes end up and how far they lead their country into decay’
Putin was forced to watch from the sidelines as US F-35 fighters and B2 bombers played a decisive role in attacks against Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile capabilities
Elliott Abrams, former special representative for Iran in the first Trump administration, said in an interview with the BBC that things were done that Putin was unable to do and couldn’t even come close to
Trump believes that Putin respects power, and Trump has already demonstrated power
Paradoxically, Donald Trump, the most pro-Russian US president in modern history, may have exposed Russia’s vulnerabilities more than his predecessors
