The Rise of Far-Right Extremism in France

Parisa Pasandepour
10 Min Read
The Rise of Far-Right Extremism in France

Rise of far-right in France

The far-right party in France, National Rally led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, emerged victorious in the first round of parliamentary elections on June 30th, reaffirming itself as a dominant political force after its victory in the European parliamentary elections. With the highest voter turnout in recent French history, an unprecedented 66% of eligible voters participated. The future structure of the parliament is still uncertain.

Three major political blocs competed in these elections: the far-right National Rally, the centrist alliance of President Emmanuel Macron, and the new People’s Front coalition composed of left, centrist, and green forces.

In the first round, based on final results, 76 out of 577 representatives were elected. The far-right party, National Rally of France, is now aiming for a majority after securing over 33% of the votes and a significant victory in the first round. Macron, from the centrist coalition that came second in the elections, expressed a desire to collaborate with the centrist alliance to prevent the far-right majority. European politicians have shown varying reactions to the electoral success of this party.

Certainly, everything will be finalized in the second round scheduled for July 7th. It is currently predicted that the National Social Party can secure between 260 to 310 seats. Since 289 seats are needed to gain an absolute majority in the parliament, the risk is still very high.

Gerdan Bardela promises that change is possible. I will be the prime minister while Macron, who has lost a relative majority, has stated that the time for a broad democratic and republican alliance has come. Jean Luc Melanson of the Social Democratic Party says that the Left Front, which is supported by a good result and holds the second position with 28% of the votes, has agreed to withdraw his candidacy in areas where he is in the third position.

Raphael Gluksman says we will support a candidate who can defeat the National Social Party. We have seven days to prevent a disaster. By tomorrow, candidates must decide on withdrawing their candidacy in the second round, which will be held on Monday in the electoral districts.

The password is resilience.

The final result of the vote is determined by the ability of the center and left forces to agree with each other. In fact, based on the French electoral system, a candidate wins in the first round if they obtain 50% plus one vote and at least 25% of the votes of the registered voters in an electoral district. Otherwise, all those who have obtained at least 12.5% of the votes of the individuals listed in the electoral rolls in the first vote will advance to the second round, not the voters.

Usually, two candidates make it to the second round, but in this case, high public participation favors what is known as a triangular situation. Standing up against the National Rally will be decisive. This means that in order to stop the Le Pen party, one of the two other political forces must voluntarily decide to step aside and support the convergence of votes on the remaining candidate in the competition.

They clearly stated that our goal is clear, not one more vote or one more seat for the National Rally. In the second round, our candidates in the districts where a National Rally candidate came first will step aside if they came third.

Macron also confirmed that even among the Ensemble candidates, which means a political liberal coalition in France created by Emmanuel Macron, those who come third will be pulled aside. However, it will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, especially when a candidate from the far-left Socialist Democratic Party of France becomes second.

Possible Scenarios

Political analysts and observers largely agree on the scenarios that are likely to unfold after July 7th. The first scenario, which current polls consider more probable and predict that the National Rally party will win, but will not reach the 289 seats that ensure a parliamentary majority. Macron had previously stated that he does not intend to govern unless he immediately secures a majority. In that case, Macron can appoint a prime minister to temporarily take control before returning to the polls, but not before June 2025.

The second scenario is a decisive victory for the national movement, in which Bardalla will become the prime minister. This will not be something new; France has experienced periods of shared life before. In the past, when the president and prime minister came from different parties, it always involved relatively direct cooperation between parties with similar worldviews. However, in this case, a far-right prime minister, in open ideological opposition to the president, weakens the political system and poses the risk of institutional paralysis.

There is also a third possibility of a surprising victory without a majority for the left-wing front. Even in this case, the result leads to an unmanageable national assembly.

Is Europe shaking?

Rarely have elections in France caused fear and concern outside the borders of the country. Not only is the attempt to present oneself as a political force responsible for the program of the National Rally Party incompatible with France remaining in the European Union and NATO, but Marine Le Pen has explicitly stated that if forced to coexist, the National Rally will not allow Macron to follow the country’s strategic path and agenda. This outlook terrifies European partners. According to the French Constitution, the President is the head of the armed forces and deals with foreign policy, but a closer look presents a much more complex picture.

The majority in parliament gives Le Pen the opportunity to have significant influence through the approval of the budget law. In other words, a parliament with a far-right majority can block financial aid for supporting Ukraine, funding for joint defense, and the selection of new European leaders. Macron’s camp argues that when the budget law faces insurmountable opposition in the fall, a confrontation with the National Rally and early elections becomes inevitable.

A close aide to Elise explained that holding the election now would be less damaging. According to our polls, an overwhelming majority favored a national gathering by October, making it unavoidable. Therefore, the effort to pivot was necessary, but it may have happened sooner than expected. Macron stated in letters to the French people published a week ago that whoever wins will not resign from the presidency and will remain in office until the end of their presidential term in 2027.

It can be said that this is the end of Macronism as we have known it so far, regardless of the results of the second round. Macron and the left promise to pull their candidate out in many areas where they came in third, to save what can be saved.

The aim is to prevent obtaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly. If they succeed, a very uncertain and entirely new period awaits France and Europe. The financial markets of Europe, Western support for Ukraine, and France’s nuclear and military forces will all potentially be influenced by the results of these elections.

However, this uncertainty will remain because if they do not reach an absolute majority, Macron will inevitably have to choose a weak prime minister until the new early elections, not before June 2025. It is assumed that in any case, the situation is moving towards instability.

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Master's Degree in International Relations from the Faculty of Diplomatic Sciences and International Relations, Genoa, Italy.